Math, Materia, and How to Succeed at Melding

[Madrox]

The percentages are exactly that, the chance that you will successfully meld. The larger the playerbase the MORE likely that someone will have a terrible run of bad or good luck.

But with a smaller pool lets say 100 melds the chances would be better generally of giving successful melds? That almost makes them sound misleading, not incorrect percentages lol.

[Alzelia]

But with a smaller pool lets say 100 melds the chances would be better generally of giving successful melds? That almost makes them sound misleading, not incorrect percentages lol.

Let me explain what I mean by the number of melds you need to perform to "expect" a successful meld. I'll keep the math real easy with a regular calculator. Take the percent chance you have of success, say 22%. Divide 100 by that percent. 100/22=4.54. Let's round that up to 5. 5 is the minimum number of attempts that will generally provide an successful meld.

The reason why I say you can "expect" one of the 5 melds is because each meld will have a 1 in 5 chance to succeed, and you have 5 chances.

Mathmatically you would have had a 72% overall chance of winning. (a 1 in 12 chance of 2 successful melds)

Another way to put it is that in the long run, 1 out of every 4.5 melds will be successful.

[Madrox]

Let me explain what I mean by the number of melds you need to perform to "expect" a successful meld. I'll keep the math real easy with a regular calculator. Take the percent chance you have of success, say 22%. Divide 100 by that percent. 100/22=4.54. Let's round that up to 5. 5 is the minimum number of attempts that will generally provide an successful meld.

The reason why I say you can "expect" one of the 5 melds is because each meld will have a 1 in 5 chance to succeed, and you have 5 chances.

Mathmatically you would have had a 72% overall chance of winning. (a 1 in 12 chance of 2 successful melds)

Another way to put it is that in the long run, 1 out of every 4.5 melds will be successful.

That's simple math, I know that. Your post wasn't hard to understand and neither are percentages. But it that how they really implemented it. I'm just bringing up another possibility of implementation. I'll start crafting more and experiment. If it was that simple I wouldn't think we would be hearing about people always failing over ten times in a row. Hopefully they're all just upset and full of it.

[Alzelia]

That's simple math, I know that. Your post wasn't hard to understand and neither are percentages. But it that how they really implemented it. I'm just bringing up another possibility of implementation. I'll start crafting more and experiment. If it was that simple I wouldn't think we would be hearing about people always failing over ten times in a row. Hopefully they're all just upset and full of it.

Chance you will fail 10 times in a row (@25% each): 5.6%
Chance you would bitch about it if you did: 100%

1 out of every 20 times someones goes for 10 melds in a row they will fail, and I'm sure they will talk about it and remember it. You don't really talk about the other 19 runs where you got 2 or 3 successful attempts.

[Madrox]

Chance you will fail 10 times in a row (@25% each): 5.6%
Chance you would bitch about it if you did: 100%

1 out of every 20 times someones goes for 10 melds in a row they will fail, and I'm sure they will talk about it and remember it. You don't really talk about the other 19 runs where you got 2 or 3 successful attempts.

Thanks I gotcha. That's some advanced statistics there, statistics within statistics. That's probably it, my theory would be too complex and pointless even for SE.