Hello everyone. Some interesting posts and thoughts back and forth. One of the things I notice is the suggestion of x% not really being x%. I.e., I keep failing with 80% but succeed on 20%. Also some suggestions of when/how-often double down will occur.

The ASSUMPTION is that the % being shown is honest: If it says 80% chance of HQ, then it really means 80% chance of HQ. And if one fails 100 times in a row, then they are just very very unlucky (and keep falling into that 20% category). However, if someone wants to challenge this assumption, they are in fact saying: The code is buggy (80% is not equal to 80%) OR the code is lying (80% means something else entirely). If they wish to challenge this, please make sure you have some 'proof' (not screenshots or anything, just a good clean record). Recommend:

100 attempts of same item, same ingredients.
Identical stats (food included if applicable).
The exact same steps are taking during synthesis. (This can be achieved by always finishing with 30%/60% advance progress)
Record the Quality and HQ % plus result
Record the HQ % if double down
Record the final result

With a sample size less than 100, there is not enough data to know what is going on. I would honestly recommend 1000, but 100 might be enough to get a 'clue'.