% are a joke when it comes to HQing

[Green_and_a_Half]

I've read all of the above and all of the above is true. The obvious fact here is that SE wants this stuff to be extremely difficult to craft. I'm referring to the new "Difficult to Synth" items, of course.

First off, these items are pleasing to the eye (for the most part), but other than that, the stats on them aren't even great! Second, they are limited to "Classes" and can not be used on jobs. Third, to even have a decent shot at success, you pretty much need to have all of your DoH classes capped to obtain the necessary skills. Now I for one can tell you that I spent a hell of a lot of time leveling up ALL of my DoH classes (with exception of cooking, and it's about 30 now). Now, even after leveling up all of these classes, we have this random BS, which is totally under the control of the SE developers. We have no idea how they have coded their algorithms. The percentages are basically meaningless as Lux_Rayna has so skillfully pointed out.

All this being said, SE has obviously set it up so VERY VERY few of us will succeed in making any of this gear. My advice... leave it alone till they modify their algorithm to allow more success.

I can understand that SE wants to make some things difficult to craft but I believe they have gone overboard on these items. After all, they aren't very good items, and even if they were, the fact that you nearly need all of your DoH classes capped makes these synths difficult enough to succeed at. They could code the algorithm to actually make the percentages based on 100 attempts rather than 1,000 or more (which is probably what they've done).

I know I for one will simply sell the materials I farm rather than waste my effort gathering these HQ mats only to loose most of them trying to synth junk. Just a thought.

Good Luck everyone.

they make people TRY harder to synth instead of going the safe way, Learn what works for hqing instead of following the same patters all day
yes, OP, its weird that you fail so many 75%+ but you are also right that if you get a 96%, fail and DD for 48% techniquely you should have got the hq per having an over all 72% change to HQ.

[syntaxlies]

were you facing north during a full moon phase?

[Green_and_a_Half]

were you facing north during a full moon phase?

which ever way your mom is, that's the way I always face while HQ'ing

[tymora]

They could code the algorithm to actually make the percentages based on 100 attempts rather than 1,000 or more (which is probably what they've done).

I fail to see how 10% of 100 is different from 10% from 1000. It is still a 10% chance.

[Lux_Rayna]

I fail to see how 10% of 100 is different from 10% from 1000. It is still a 10% chance.

Tis true...10% is 10% no matter what you do. Its the ugly truth of probability.

[Babydoll]

what ever happened to "players are guaranteed HQ with all HQ items" :/

[Al_Harrington]

I agree with you OP and understand what you are saying. Before math guy replies back, no I do not need further instruction in math, I hold a masters in it.

I am 0 for 31 on triple meld IV attempts. I understand the triple IV attempt side of it. Something that low in % should only happen once or twice to someone over hundreds of attempts. The HQ side though, I can go out right now and fail one 90%+ within 10 attempts. By your percentage theory the two events should occur roughly the same number of times, but I don't have to log into my account to tell you that I have zero triple IV melded gear and have lost count on the number of times I have failed an HQ attempt over 90%. Also look at some of the new ore items, I HQ more 2-3% Darksteel nuggets then I can collect HQ ore for those attempts. Bad/good luck sure, SE FUBAR more like it.

[Zozma]

Trying to HQ and I have yet to see a single HQ, my chances have been;
80+40
75+33
80+40
33+16
76+33 (I hq'ed on this last DD)

now what the fark is the probability of not getting a single "success" across all those attempts. Not big at all. SE need to implement something that prevents unlucky players to just roll on a bad luck streak. It really disgusts me how big difference LUCK makes between players. I went 1/11 before I got my first double meld they all had 25% ish success rate.

[Dzian]

Trying to HQ and I have yet to see a single HQ, my chances have been;
80+40
75+33
80+40
33+16
76+33 (I hq'ed on this last DD)

now what the fark is the probability of not getting a single "success" across all those attempts. Not big at all. SE need to implement something that prevents unlucky players to just roll on a bad luck streak. It really disgusts me how big difference LUCK makes between players. I went 1/11 before I got my first double meld they all had 25% ish success rate.

There's always going to be a factor of luck, there's no way at all around that it's part of life.
Probability is also exponential (probably not the right term but I'm tired)

Lets say you make an item. you have a 50% hq rate.
If you make 2 of them and both have a 50% hq rate you theoretically have a 75% chance of hqing at least one of them.
If you make 3 then you theoretically have a 87.5% chance of hqing at least one of them.
If you make 4 then you theoretically have a 93.75% chance of hqing at least one.

You would look at these 4 items all 50% chances and think you're guaranteed to hq 1 or 2 but in reality theres still a fair chance (6.25%) that you won't hq any.
There's nothing you can do about it. Short of making some crazy as rule where the game says "hey he's made 4 of these and not hq'd any" and have it force hq the next one.

[Enfarious]

All this is true, Unless SE skewed the random number generator.

Of course it isn't actually random at all, but a pseudo-random number generated by an algorithm so not truly random no matter how you cut it. Only nature can pull off truly random, PCs don't. Seeding the generator helps but even then seeded based on time since epoch you can find a pattern. Seeded w/ the random number generated by a random seed from a random number from a random seed from user input value maybe but do you think they've gone that far?