% are a joke when it comes to HQing

[blackreaper]

Ive had more 75-99% fails compaired to 30-74%. I did again today 6 synths. Making Zircon rings. All hq mats. first was 96% double down and blew up, Second was 71% and it HQ'd. Third was 86% double down and blew up. Fourth was 68% made it. 5th was 76% double down and blew up/ And last was 59% and it made it. Something is messed up here. In the past ive had more of the higher percentages double down and blow up compaired to the mid range percentages. So whats up with this.

[tymora]

If you're bitching about this, then you don't understand the idea of "random" numbers at all...

I have the same chance of HQing a 30% synth and failing a 70% chance synth. Go figure.

[Urthdigger]

Ive had more 75-99% fails compaired to 30-74%. I did again today 6 synths. Making Zircon rings. All hq mats. first was 96% double down and blew up, Second was 71% and it HQ'd. Third was 86% double down and blew up. Fourth was 68% made it. 5th was 76% double down and blew up/ And last was 59% and it made it. Something is messed up here. In the past ive had more of the higher percentages double down and blow up compaired to the mid range percentages. So whats up with this.

Hi, welcome to statistics. A higher probability doesn't guarantee that you'll get more success than a lower probability. It's just (wait for it) more probable.

[blackreaper]

im not talking about the low percentages. IM talking about the higher percentages. The 75%+ according to that 3 out of every 4 should hq. If not why even post %. 96% is extremely high. And ive had many in the 90s fail. I think there might be an issue with the percentages thats all.

[Urthdigger]

Again, a high probability is not a guarantee of increased success. It simply means success is more probable. At a 96% chance of success, there is still a 4% chance of failure. In either case, 6 attempts is a fairly small sample size. If you had, say, 100 attempts at 90%, and only 20% of those succeeded, then THAT would be a large enough sample size for some evidence. But with only 6, it's highly probable that you just got unlucky.

[Lux_Rayna]

Correct! Its all basic probability theory.

Middle school teaches us to perceive percentages as reduced fractions. Therefore we look at 20% as 1/5, 50% as 1/2, and 33% as roughly 1/3. Of course, we're not completely naive so we tend to expand these fractions up to the denominator of 100. Psychologically, we expect that 100 attempts max will give us the success we are looking for. In this way, 20% is 20/100, 40% is 40/100, and 85% is 85/100. We expect out of 100 attempts max, we should at least get something even if the percentage chance is only 1% (or 1/100).

The fact of the matter is that this is not true. Probability (ie the percentage) is not necessarily a function of 100 attempts. We think of it this way because of education, but probability is literally infinite. You might see 3% over 5 attempts, 10 attempts, 100 attempts, or 10,000 attempts. After all, 3% of 10,000 is 300. You may not see the first of that 300 til the 500 mark, the 1000 mark, or maybe even the 9000 mark. Because of this infinite nature of probability, it is both random and consistent. It is random in that every attempt has an equal chance of succeeding or failing. Try 1 time, or 1000 times...every individual attempt will always give you an 3% chance of success (or whatever the probability is). It is consistent in that, despite these random outcomes, over the long run the 3% probability rate will prove true.

When you do anything that involves probability, you have to understand this and accept it. Even if your success rate was 99%, you could still fail every time for the next 100 attempts. Any chance of failure means that failure is an equal possibility on any inidividual attempt you make. Likely? No. But it is a possibility. Always. If you are gonna embark on this endeavor, the secret is to treat every attempt as a coin toss. People mistakenly believe that every attempt they make raises their chance of success, and this is where they get frustrated. If I believe in the 1/5, or 20/100, by attempt number 4 I'm expecting success, and by attempt 80 I am positive I will succeed very very soon. Unfortunately, probability does not work this way. Every attempt is purely individual and entirely random. Attempt 2 wont have a higher chance of success than attempt 1, and attempt 100 doesn't bring you any closer than attempt 5.

Once you accept this, it wont bother you. Treat every attempt as independent and random, like hitting the restart button. This means to stop counting your attempts, because the number of attempts does not make a difference, nor does it help you. Number of attempts is irrelevant. Attempt 1000 is no different in probability than attempt 1. Stop counting. Every attempt is an independent random outcome. Despite this, you have to trust that as long as you keep trying, you will eventually succeed because probability is also consistent. You dont know *when* this success will start, but you know that it will. In other words, every attempt has a chance of success, and because of that, one attempt will succeed as long as you don't quit.

I know it seems contradictory, but this is the paradox of probabilities as I have read it: random outcome, consistent results. In case any of you are curious, this actually all came from a book on investment psychology. But it applies here, as well as to anything that seems to have a "gambling" nature about it.

Welcome to probability

[Asiaine]

Ive had more 75-99% fails compaired to 30-74%. I did again today 6 synths. Making Zircon rings. All hq mats. first was 96% double down and blew up, Second was 71% and it HQ'd. Third was 86% double down and blew up. Fourth was 68% made it. 5th was 76% double down and blew up/ And last was 59% and it made it. Something is messed up here. In the past ive had more of the higher percentages double down and blow up compaired to the mid range percentages. So whats up with this.

Hello and welcome to the wonderful world of probability. Please see Lux_Rayna's post for more details. But if you need a brief synposis:

6 synths is not enough to make the probability present itself. If you wish to proove that 70% is 70% you will need to do more than 6 attempts. More than 100. Some might argue you may need to to 10000 attempts for a 70% probability to present itself.

After you have collected data on at least 10,000 attempts you might start to see a trend. You may need to do 100,000 or 1,000,000 attempts for it to be moer accurate and clear.

Or you could sit in a jail cell and flip a coin 10,000 times to see if 50/50 presents itself ^.^;

[Cousinjimmy]

Can...not...resist
#umadbro

[Airget]

lol was that like a 2% chance?

[Uzziah]

I've read all of the above and all of the above is true. The obvious fact here is that SE wants this stuff to be extremely difficult to craft. I'm referring to the new "Difficult to Synth" items, of course.

First off, these items are pleasing to the eye (for the most part), but other than that, the stats on them aren't even great! Second, they are limited to "Classes" and can not be used on jobs. Third, to even have a decent shot at success, you pretty much need to have all of your DoH classes capped to obtain the necessary skills. Now I for one can tell you that I spent a hell of a lot of time leveling up ALL of my DoH classes (with exception of cooking, and it's about 30 now). Now, even after leveling up all of these classes, we have this random BS, which is totally under the control of the SE developers. We have no idea how they have coded their algorithms. The percentages are basically meaningless as Lux_Rayna has so skillfully pointed out.

All this being said, SE has obviously set it up so VERY VERY few of us will succeed in making any of this gear. My advice... leave it alone till they modify their algorithm to allow more success.

I can understand that SE wants to make some things difficult to craft but I believe they have gone overboard on these items. After all, they aren't very good items, and even if they were, the fact that you nearly need all of your DoH classes capped makes these synths difficult enough to succeed at. They could code the algorithm to actually make the percentages based on 100 attempts rather than 1,000 or more (which is probably what they've done).

I know I for one will simply sell the materials I farm rather than waste my effort gathering these HQ mats only to loose most of them trying to synth junk. Just a thought.

Good Luck everyone.