% are a joke when it comes to HQing

[Asiaine]

Ive had more 75-99% fails compaired to 30-74%. I did again today 6 synths. Making Zircon rings. All hq mats. first was 96% double down and blew up, Second was 71% and it HQ'd. Third was 86% double down and blew up. Fourth was 68% made it. 5th was 76% double down and blew up/ And last was 59% and it made it. Something is messed up here. In the past ive had more of the higher percentages double down and blow up compaired to the mid range percentages. So whats up with this.

Hello and welcome to the wonderful world of probability. Please see Lux_Rayna's post for more details. But if you need a brief synposis:

6 synths is not enough to make the probability present itself. If you wish to proove that 70% is 70% you will need to do more than 6 attempts. More than 100. Some might argue you may need to to 10000 attempts for a 70% probability to present itself.

After you have collected data on at least 10,000 attempts you might start to see a trend. You may need to do 100,000 or 1,000,000 attempts for it to be moer accurate and clear.

Or you could sit in a jail cell and flip a coin 10,000 times to see if 50/50 presents itself ^.^;

[Yrusama]

Or you could sit in a jail cell and flip a coin 10,000 times to see if 50/50 presents itself ^.^;

Actually, I've heard that 55% of the time a coin will be tails because the heads side is slightly heavier. But that's irrelevant. Carry on!

[Asiaine]

Actually, I've heard that 55% of the time a coin will be tails because the heads side is slightly heavier. But that's irrelevant. Carry on!

That is offset by the fact that sometimes it lands on its edge!

[Seyrr]

That is offset by the fact that sometimes it lands on its edge!

Which, interestingly, is how the head of my college's chemistry department picked chemistry as his major. The story goes that he was flipping a coin to decide between physics and engineering, and there was a crack in the sidewalk nearby...