Melding success rate

[Lux_Rayna]

Good theory, however I'd like to attribute OPs case to bad luck :x

FYI: I went 1/17 on gamblers crown. LS mates of mine went like 1/50, and 1/150+

Correct! Its all basic probability theory.

Middle school teaches us to perceive percentages as reduced fractions. Therefore we look at 20% as 1/5, 50% as 1/2, and 33% as roughly 1/3. Of course, we're not completely naive so we tend to expand these fractions up to the denominator of 100. Psychologically, we expect that 100 attempts max will give us the success we are looking for. In this way, 20% is 20/100, 40% is 40/100, and 85% is 85/100. We expect out of 100 attempts max, we should at least get something even if the percentage chance is only 1% (or 1/100).

The fact of the matter is that this is not true. Probability (ie the percentage) is not necessarily a function of 100 attempts. We think of it this way because of education, but probability is literally infinite. You might see 3% over 5 attempts, 10 attempts, 100 attempts, or 10,000 attempts. After all, 3% of 10,000 is 300. You may not see the first of that 300 til the 500 mark, the 1000 mark, or maybe even the 9000 mark. Because of this infinite nature of probability, it is both random and consistent. It is random in that every attempt has an equal chance of succeeding or failing. Try 1 time, or 1000 times...every individual attempt will always give you an 3% chance of success (or whatever the probability is). It is consistent in that, despite these random outcomes, over the long run the 3% probability rate will prove true.

When you do anything that involves probability, you have to understand this and accept it. Even if your success rate was 99%, you could still fail every time for the next 100 attempts. Any chance of failure means that failure is an equal possibility on any inidividual attempt you make. Likely? No. But it is a possibility. Always. If you are gonna embark on this endeavor, the secret is to treat every attempt as a coin toss. People mistakenly believe that every attempt they make raises their chance of success, and this is where they get frustrated. If I believe in the 1/5, or 20/100, by attempt number 4 I'm expecting success, and by attempt 80 I am positive I will succeed very very soon. Unfortunately, probability does not work this way. Every attempt is purely individual and entirely random. Attempt 2 wont have a higher chance of success than attempt 1, and attempt 100 doesn't bring you any closer than attempt 5.

Once you accept this, it wont bother you. Treat every attempt as independent and random, like hitting the restart button. This means to stop counting your attempts, because the number of attempts does not make a difference, nor does it help you. Number of attempts is irrelevant. Attempt 1000 is no different in probability than attempt 1. Stop counting. Every attempt is an independent random outcome. Despite this, you have to trust that as long as you keep trying, you will eventually succeed because probability is also consistent. You dont know *when* this success will start, but you know that it will. In other words, every attempt has a chance of success, and because of that, one attempt will succeed as long as you don't quit.

I know it seems contradictory, but this is the paradox of probabilities as I have read it: random outcome, consistent results. In case any of you are curious, this actually all came from a book on investment psychology. But it applies here, as well as to anything that seems to have a "gambling" nature about it.

[Aldarin]

I'll add a bit in addition to this. Considering that SE would not want the environment to affect the crafting rate that much, if it is there, having a group of people, who are not logging their data, and are less that 1000people, confirm that moon phase affects crafting, does not provide sufficient evidence that moon phase and other environmental effects affect crafting rates.

Humans have inherent logical fallacies, which is why all scientific correlations are done using numbers. Using only flawed anecdotal evidence, you can end up with the situation of rain dances (which is exactly why rain dances occured). We now know that rain is a product of shifting atmospheric temperatures causing condensation, but ancient tribes used human observation to come to the flawed conclusion that rain came due to their tribal dances.

Thus, crafting may be affected by the weather and moon, but there is no way to confirm that without the effort of ALOT of people, like more than your linkshell, and even then there is a chance to be wrong.

[AeraLucis]

Using only flawed anecdotal evidence, you can end up with the situation of rain dances (which is exactly why rain dances occured). We now know that rain is a product of shifting atmospheric temperatures causing condensation, but ancient tribes used human observation to come to the flawed conclusion that rain came due to their tribal dances.

TIL

/10char