To be fair, the problem is still the fact that Square Enix's perception of what midcore is, is flawed. On top of that, they also assume that every player wants to improve. Which could not be farther from the truth. The reality is that most of the people in FF14 are just chilling.
They enjoy the game for its story, shiny bossfights and overall casual approach and they are happy as long as there is something to do, something shiny to get, and the hardest difficulty they ever want or need is probably around Critical Engagements level,if they improve naturally, then thats good. Shoveling way harder content into the game than they are used to and baiting them to complete it with TT cards and hairstyles will achieve nothing but pour gasoline on fire.
It is genuinely not hard to satisfy these players but they utterly failed to do so in Dawntrail in every department.
The issue was already highlighted with Chaotic and how much people detested it, it should have raised every alarm bells they have available. Sadly however Forked Tower follows the same logic as Chaotic and people hate it for the same reason. Its battle content that people would do because it is interesting, the rewards are there as incentive, but its just too punishing for the average player, hence barely anybody bothers with it and the content dies weeks if not days after its release when the sweats get bored of it.
Square wont fix this, if they wanted to, they could have course corrected long ago after the reception of Chaotic, and Forked Tower would be a puggable alliance raid with a harder difficulty available for some additional rewards or higher drop rate.
But it isn't, so whatever is the next Forked Tower, it will use the same dogwater logic, too punishing fight, complicated entry, tempting rewards and more tumbleweeds than players inside it after week 2.