FFXIV population decline continues

[Jeeqbit]

Comparison of populations for December going back to 2014:

Comparisons of populations for each X.15 patch going back to 2014:


My reason for making these is to give a sense of if it has fluctuated this much at comparable months or patches.

There are some obvious possible reasons it spiked so high before and returned to how it was: Covid, and the game going viral. Sure, people are quick to blame the content and issues they have, but objectively those were factors that caused spikes around that time.

[Larirawiel]

Comparison of populations for December going back to 2014:
https://i.imgur.com/yuGlLfG.png
Comparisons of populations for each X.15 patch going back to 2014:
https://i.imgur.com/JUXAfn0.png

My reason for making these is to give a sense of if it has fluctuated this much at comparable months or patches.

A good indicator are the steam numbers:
https://steamdb.info/app/39210/charts/#6y

The game has a declining population ATM. Endwalker could retain many players with new content patches. In DT the content patch did almost nothing.



Cheers

[AmiableApkallu]

Endwalker could retain many players with new content patches. In DT the content patch did almost nothing.

And how, pray tell, did Endwalker achieve this? Reviewing patch notes, here's what I see:

Patch 6.01 and 7.01:

• Normal raid

Patch 6.05 and 7.05:

• Savage raid
• Treasure hunt

Patch 6.1 and 7.1:

• MSQ
• Alliance raid
• EX3
• Unreal
• 6.1 only: Final role quest, Crystalline Conflict
• 7.1 only: Pelupelu society quests

Patch 6.11 and 7.11:

• Ultimate

Patch 6.15 and 7.15:

• Capstone Studium/Wachumeqimeqi quest
• Hildebrand
• Custom deliveries
• 6.15 only: Omega and Tataru quests, Arkasodara society quests
• 7.15 only: Chaotic alliance raid

At this point in the patch cycles, the only content Endwalker has over Dawntrail is a few one-and-done quests and… Crystalline Conflict.

[BigCheez]

And how, pray tell, did Endwalker achieve this? Reviewing patch notes, here's what I see:

Patch 6.01 and 7.01:

• Normal raid

Patch 6.05 and 7.05:

• Savage raid
• Treasure hunt

Patch 6.1 and 7.1:

• MSQ
• Alliance raid
• EX3
• Unreal
• 6.1 only: Final role quest, Crystalline Conflict
• 7.1 only: Pelupelu society quests

Patch 6.11 and 7.11:

• Ultimate

Patch 6.15 and 7.15:

• Capstone Studium/Wachumeqimeqi quest
• Hildebrand
• Custom deliveries
• 6.15 only: Omega and Tataru quests, Arkasodara society quests
• 7.15 only: Chaotic alliance raid

At this point in the patch cycles, the only content Endwalker has over Dawntrail is a few one-and-done quests and… Crystalline Conflict.

The difference was that most people still had old content to fall back on during Endwalker.

People remember having a lot more to do during Endwalker but what were they actually doing? Finishing off in Eureka/Bozja, Firmament/Diadem, maybe getting their crafters and gatherers sorted out if they didn't have those done already, BLU stuff, etc.

I can tell you what they weren't doing, and that's playing Endwalker content, because it was barren as hell.

[Exmo]

Comparison of populations for December going back to 2014:

Comparisons of populations for each X.15 patch going back to 2014:


My reason for making these is to give a sense of if it has fluctuated this much at comparable months or patches.

There are some obvious possible reasons it spiked so high before and returned to how it was: Covid, and the game going viral. Sure, people are quick to blame the content and issues they have, but objectively those were factors that caused spikes around that time.

This is the long and the short of it. Anyone who ignores the real world context here is just trying to sell you something.

[Fawkes]

Comparison of populations for December going back to 2014:


My reason for making these is to give a sense of if it has fluctuated this much at comparable months or patches.

There are some obvious possible reasons it spiked so high before and returned to how it was: Covid, and the game going viral. Sure, people are quick to blame the content and issues they have, but objectively those were factors that caused spikes around that time.

That graph doesn't really align with covid. It shows a slight downturn in december 2020, which is after everyone was isolated at home.

[Jeeqbit]

That graph doesn't really align with covid. It shows a slight downturn in december 2020, which is after everyone was isolated at home.

The lockdowns lasted different timeframes depending on country. The effect of people recovering from the lockdowns took time. Some did not get a new jobs or their sector didn't fully recover right away.

Regardless, it does align with the game going viral, and the players that joined during that did not necessarily stick with the game or have the same amount of attachment to it as the bulk that were already playing.

People remember having a lot more to do during Endwalker

No? Everyone on these forums was saying there was nothing to do during Endwalker. Sound familiar? Because we're just repeating the same song and dance this expansion (as we always have).

I pointed out in another thread, FFXIV steam charts look really concerning.

95k for EW launch, 92k for DT launch. Slump to 29k for EW, slump to 27k for DT. Basically the same.

It's worth noting that there is always a slump to about the current amount in December due to the holidays, and that January's figure has literally only had 4 days to be collected and will change over the course of the month.

The peak for EW launch was pretty much replicated for DT.

That's impressive, considering the game had gone viral in EW and it has been an uphill struggle to reach the statistics we had while it was viral. To have almost reached EW's viral statistic with Dawntrail's release is a good thing. This has been achieved... without Asmongold and everyone else playing, so consider that.

Most people in this game don't do Savage or Ultimate, so they are getting close to 0 content for months.

We recently established with multiple statistics that 30% of people clear Savage (the entire tier) and the figure is more like 50% in JP. Still a minority overall, but not insignificant, and doesn't count those who merely clear floor 1 or 2.

[BigCheez]

No? Everyone on these forums was saying there was nothing to do during Endwalker. Sound familiar? Because we're just repeating the same song and dance this expansion (as we always have).

Forum users are not the average player. We've reached the point where even the average player has nothing left to do.

[CNitsah]

We recently established with multiple statistics that 30% of people clear Savage (the entire tier) and the figure is more like 50% in JP. Still a minority overall, but not insignificant, and doesn't count those who merely clear floor 1 or 2.

Well, I wish those statistic had the absolute numbers for the same period in 6.0/6.1. My question is "how, in absolute numbers, were the clear rates of Pandemonium first tier during 6.1?". If they were lower or in the same range for Normal, that's the right reading of those stats. On the other hand, if the absolute numbers of pandemonium savage clearance are in the same range as Arcadion Savage, and normal fell down by a significant number, the reading might be slightly different : less people engaged with the the normal raid, and being not more than previously, they represent a higher percentage of the the people clearing normal. In other word, it this high clearance rate might rather be a indication of the bad general health of the game than the indication of more people trying to complete Savage. I can also be a little bit of both. If you don't compare them to previous similar statistics, those latest statistic might (emphasis on the possibility, I'm not trying to say "that's the the explanation, I'm totally fine with the "more people went into savage") draw an incomplete picture of the situation. I'm sure it's pretty easy to verify that if you speak japanese and search through LuckyBancho older post, but I don't speak japanese, I wouldn't even know if I'm comparing the right charts.

[BigCheez]

Comparison of populations for December going back to 2014:

Comparisons of populations for each X.15 patch going back to 2014:


My reason for making these is to give a sense of if it has fluctuated this much at comparable months or patches.

There are some obvious possible reasons it spiked so high before and returned to how it was: Covid, and the game going viral. Sure, people are quick to blame the content and issues they have, but objectively those were factors that caused spikes around that time.

Can we please stop pretending that people are playing less videogames since COVID.

CSGO/CS2


WoW


Other games aren't struggling with declining player numbers since COVID. This is a FFXIV problem and the problem is the game.