Steam, LB and Quarterly Estimate Chart

[ZephyrMenodora]

Mao curious. Mao sees lots people arguing abouts if game dying or not and Mao wonderings why. For Mao wondering abouts whether game dying or nots is nots interesting. Mao quit game because game no longer funs for Mao. Does nots mean game nots funs for others. Game just changed into something Mao no longer likes.

I don't think the game is on it's deathbed, but a downward trajectory is not something those who care about the game want to see. The question is then "why is this happening" and there are many reasons.

I absolutely care about players like you who loved the game but it is now something you don't like anymore. It's sad to see.

[Axxion]

i think the problem is and i only speak for myself. I feel like it just stale for right now. Its okay but its just meh. when the new stuff come out yes it will peak people interest but not hold them.

[Hyperia]

I have not played since mid July and even then, I took a 1 week break after arriving in the final zone because I was so taken aback by what the story did there.

I really have not been happy with the direction and story of the game since Shadowbringers. EW was not horrible but the patches after were no fun.

I muddled through DT and … I … nope…

I really want to play but when I login, I look around, see nobody in my large FC online (many for months), ask myself why am I here and sign out.

[Elizabetha]

That's good.

I wish I still felt the need to log in. I'm jealous of players that are content with the game. I used to be one. I remember what it felt like.

It was really fun.

Was.

[NanaWiloh]

Thanks for posting data from multiple sources wish more people learn to do the same.

[NegativeS]

Not to be the guy putting hot sauce in the curried goat, but...

• Steam (peak players logged in per month)
• Lucky Bancho (active non-trial characters over 2-4 month intervals)
• SE (recurring monthly income divided by the sub fee)
• Achievements Enabled (invested players with big sunk cost and their behaviour, by Lucky Bancho)

...after having conversations like this numerous times on the WoW forum over their census data and whether or not the game was dying, I can't take stuff like this seriously.

Steam might be the most accurate to people actually playing since unlike a lot of games on it you don't need separate Steam accounts to access multiple XIV characters/accounts, but of course that's only an unknowable portion of the playerbase.
Without an ability to read Japanese or get an accurate translation of the page, it's impossible for me to know what 'active' means in this context--on for the majority of time, or logged on a single time? Additionally, does not account for players with multiple characters, players with multiple accounts, etc--a common pitfall of attempting to gauge WoW's popularity purely off of census data.
And the 'Achievements Enabled' link, I can't read, so I have no opinion on it. Too low quality, and in a language I can't understand (that is too low quality to translate).

That just leaves the SE stat, which... seems to vary uncomfortably wildly. I'd love to know the exact numbers you used for calculating this.

[CaptainLagbeard]

The game isn't dying, but it definitely isn't healthy either...

Majority of the players dislike the story of DT, which is one of the main selling points of FFXIV. And gameplay for the most part is just getting worse, and SE barely does anything about it.
Aside from AST getting it's obligatory rework for the expansion and SGE's release in EW... WHM and SCH haven't been touched by the devs since the launch of ShB.

[Jeeqbit]

Steam might be the most accurate to people actually playing since unlike a lot of games on it you don't need separate Steam accounts to access multiple XIV characters/accounts, but of course that's only an unknowable portion of the playerbase.

Right, but the most important part is the spikes - and actually, the Steam and Lucky Bancho spikes tend to roughly align pretty well. Steam's spikes tend to run out quicker, due to more frequent data and the fact people login for a patch then stop playing, whereas Lucky Bancho's stats cover multiple months so appear to stretch longer. I just wanted something that showed it all together, instead of trying to imagine them together.

Without an ability to read Japanese or get an accurate translation of the page, it's impossible for me to know what 'active' means in this context--on for the majority of time, or logged on a single time?

Lucky Bancho's stats are not "logged in time". They are merely a measure of if the lodestone profile changed at some point in the last 2-4 months. The criteria changed over time, but this is what it currently is:

• Maximum level is 70 or higher (excluding exactly 70) OR Job is a job that cannot be unlocked in the free trial OR Belongs to an FC *
• HP, level, and experience points have changed since the last survey (8/27).
• The number of minions and mounts held has changed since the last survey.
• New characters not present in the previous survey
• Characters who have public profiles, minions, and mounts on the Lodestone
• Own at least one mount
• Characters using jumping potions in their jobs at the time of data acquisition (main weapons at the time of data acquisition with IL390 and max level 70, IL530 and max level 80, IL660 and max level 90) are excluded.

It's worth noting that Lucky Bancho takes these stats before patches in many cases. So it is trying to catch the lowest amount of people right before patch date, not the actual spike after the patch. So post-patch data is a bit staggered.

Additionally, does not account for players with multiple characters, players with multiple accounts, etc

True, and that is why I'm combining multiple data sources. However, this subject has been discussed. Lucky Bancho compared the data to leaked subscriber numbers and found about 15-20% of it was alts, but this was before DC travel which reduces the need for them.

the 'Achievements Enabled' link, I can't read, so I have no opinion on it. Too low quality, and in a language I can't understand (that is too low quality to translate).

I recall that blue is new achievement hunters, red is continuing achievement hunters, green is people who recorded their last achievement at that point (ie. they may have quit or taken a break).

It was hard to get exact numbers so I had to do it by pixel (which was hard work), but I was able to reflect it. Achievement hunters are overall a small amount of overall active players, as it shows, so it's hard to see the spikes, but I wanted to convey how it's a small amount of players (the alternative method hid the Steam spikes). It appears that achievement hunters stick around more than everyone else though (obviously) since they are busy getting achievements while everyone else takes a break. But if there was a massive drop off among achievement hunters, it would be an interesting data point.

That just leaves the SE stat, which... seems to vary uncomfortably wildly. I'd love to know the exact numbers you used for calculating this.

I went to the corporate website (linked) and read their quarterly reports dating back to 2014. I extracted the Ordinary Income (aka Recurring Income). Obviously, this may contain things other than FF14, such as DQ and FF11, but I have limited data for those. Nevertheless, I tried to subtract the fees I could from it.

Each quarterly report adds onto the last, therefore I had to subtract the previous number to get the one for that quarter only. Then I divided it by 3 months (to get the figure for 1 month). Then I divided it by the average subscription fee across countries. The result of this was some of the figures were extremely low, likely due to how they calculate their quarterly reports, 3-month and 6-month subs and patch lulls, etc.

Despite all this manipulation - accounting for other sub fees and dividing it down to account for only 1 month, the spikes were still way higher than even Lucky Bancho's estimate, which could make sense on the basis that people probably subscribe without actually playing.

I'm sure I could do this better in various ways, perhaps by finding specific months where their only sales were FFXIV, but it's a difficult thing to do without knowing exact numbers. Regardless, you can clearly see yellow spikes at major Blue/Red spikes where they made lots of money from an expansion or patch release.

[Garnix]

So correct me if I am wrong, but you are basically saying that, aside from the 2021 WoW exodus, the game is pretty much the healthier it has ever been?
Which is just further indication that they have more people to please and should put more effort into it
And also an indication that there are more people likely to be unhappy and quit, as the vocal minority is growing with the amount of customers.

[Banriikku]

This Data shows engament with the product for specific platforms and time frames. Not if the game declines or not. You know data and analytics - why do you still post this WITH THAT HEADLINE?
Ufff, you lost some respect here. Way too many qustions are open to use this for anything then "how many accounts logged" not even people or paying customer and so forth.
Also "dying" for an MMO is slow and not fast. Its a slow decay and it begins with the money aka players that pay and the increase of free to play players and bots.
Nothing of the sort can be proven or disproven with the data presented. Also the data is not "clean".
I dislike those "doomsayers" as much as you do but this is not a good way to talk about the topic or with those people.

My opinion:
Is FF14 dying ? No, but it is in a downward trend.
Can you prove that ? No, i can only say in my "bubble" Dt was disliked to the point of un-subbing.
But that is not proving anything! Correct, its an opinion and valid as any others.

Just a random thought: The game is not you and so the sucess or failure of it does not make you less or more of a person. The most fun is with others - take them and play other games with them.