I think the next "MMO" SE releases will be a cross platform mobile first experience. Think Toram Online/Genshin Impact. This makes sense financially, as SE has long sought the profitability of free-to-play games. The significant rise in FFXIV store prices shows players are buying, similar to mobile game spending. The crossover audience is there, and SE seems to have started the transition.
Arguments defending SE's use of funds often cite event rewards, but these events typically last 20 minutes, involve minimal effort (like talking to NPCs), and the items quickly land in the store. Those who didn't do the event no longer have access to those items unless they purchase them. Then, those items have variants made that are non tradeable/sellable in game. Forcing players who want these items to use the store, is what is known in the marketing world as "activation" to which they are likely to do this action again and with less resistance. Mobile games literally have tutorials for this. Even trying on store items in-game is a mobile-inspired feature, though not inherently bad.
This raises a key question: wasn’t this game meant to avoid FOMO? Players are encouraged to take breaks, yet the slower content drip-feed and growing store inventory say otherwise. Like ask yourself for one second, why don't we have craftable christmas trees in the game, or why aren't those items a constant seasonal rewards? Its because they want you to buy it. The last time one was put in game was 2015. FFXI had like 4 or 5 that you could constantly get. The ONLY way you can get them now is if by chance someone has one that they haven't used and its up on the Market Board for like 20 mil, or if you buy one form the store to which there are like 4 or 5.
SE's push to mobile seems clear, reflected in the shift to simplified combat, hub-city AFK content, and non-tradable items.
On a hopeful note—and with plenty of copium—I still think FF7R and R2 were excellent games that prove SE has dignity left. Even in FF14 DT, battle encounters have shown improvement. If Yoshi-P delivers more varied jobs in the next expansion, SE might transform FFXIV into a true MMO "loss leader" (like WoW) while keeping mobile games as their cash cow. However, if job design stagnates, I’ll take it as a sign of the inevitable mobile-focused future, at which point I’d rather invest elsewhere or support private servers.