LuckyBancho data shows that FF14 is in decline

[Musashidon]

No, you just misinterpreted the graph, the count went up for every quarter.

i hope you understand that the playerbase was not increasing during the drought periods of every expansion and was actively decreasing which that fact alone proves how untrustworthy the graph is for how the playerbase is doing.

[Jojoya]

I looked up the previous chart made in 2022 and it shows lower participation numbers for the last column (2022Q4) compared to the same time period (2022Q4) in the most recent chart (2023). This means the last column in the most recent chart (2023Q2) is likely underreporting the number of active players. Additionally, look at the number of green (final/quit) characters in the old chart in column 2022Q3. The number of green characters decreases by half for the same quartile (2022Q3) in the newer chart.


If the data is skewed in a similar manner as it was before, the number of green characters in column 2023Q1 is going to shrink dramatically in the next chart, and the total number of active players in column 2023Q2 will increase in the next chart.

LB did state in his blog that he hadn't been able to fully analyze the Q2 numbers at the time he updated the graph. That's why I have brought up the question of when the data pulled. If he's using data he pulled with his census data (May 20th but patch 6.4 was May 23rd), the lack of players with new achievements makes sense.

But even in the quarters prior to that, there has been a slowly increasing number of active players not earning new achievements and that has started with EW launch. I suspect the adjusted Q2 bar will continue that pattern. It's still hard to say what it means since those who display achievements are self-selected.

I hope you noticed that every single bar moved upwards from ShB and early EW.

Yes. COVID lockdown and WoW content creator exodus dragging followers in their wake to inflate active player numbers. We've talked about these things already.

Now the game numbers are rebounding from the outlier situation and seem to be heading toward where the game was at Shadowbringer's release. What we really need to be looking at would be the Dawntrail release numbers but those are still about 9-11 months away.

In the meantime, chances are good that LB will be publishing a new census toward the end of next week (don't know if he will be updating the achievement graph at the same time). Have fun chewing on the new data.

[Noumenon]

Yes. COVID lockdown and WoW content creator exodus dragging followers in their wake to inflate active player numbers. We've talked about these things already.

You don't even understand the comment.

[Bonoki]

Every once in a while, I like to reminisce about that time that FFXIV sold out.

[Noumenon]

Every once in a while, I like to reminisce about that time that FFXIV sold out.

And it will simply never happen again.

Because it appears this game owes its success to other MMOs imploding on themselves than any actual merit on the part of FF14.

[Deceptus]

Official SE Q2 backs this up, just staying.

"MMO Segment Down". Yeah it's simple business speak but for them to actually admit it means it has to be considerable enough to actually warrant talking about.

[Iscah]

Official SE Q2 backs this up, just staying.

"MMO Segment Down". Yeah it's simple business speak but for them to actually admit it means it has to be considerable enough to actually warrant talking about.

From a discussion I saw elsewhere, the very simple answer to this would be that the previous year they released a new expansion, and this year they did not.

[Turtledeluxe]

From a discussion I saw elsewhere, the very simple answer to this would be that the previous year they released a new expansion, and this year they did not.

They've been using that excuse for a long time and it's worn off. Now we are just looking at declines because the patch content is not retaining players.

It's not like "Oh yeah we just realized this fiscal quarter we had Endwalker"...they aknowledged the effect of Endwalker many quarters ago.

[TomsYoungerBro]

From a discussion I saw elsewhere, the very simple answer to this would be that the previous year they released a new expansion, and this year they did not.

the previous year would be Q2 2022, which is 6.1. Endwalker was Q4 2021. MMO segment down would also be relating to Q1 2023 -> Q2 2023, so they aren't comparing early EW numbers to now lmao.

[Volgia]

I'm unsatisfied that this shows the game is in decline.

I'm biased because there's A LOT I dislike about Endwalker and it's gutted content and that being the case I can look at numbers going down and say yeah see, objectively it's in decline.

But moving beyond my biases, has FF14 lost social impact within live service games and MMOs? Have a massive amount of players lost interest in playing Dawntrail? Has the game faded out of the gaming community consciousness? Like to me, the answer is no. Cuz people who hate, are ambivalent or are okay with Endwalker are all waiting expectantly to see what Dawntrail will do.