LuckyBancho data shows that FF14 is in decline

[Jojoya]

i think u are reading it wrong. green bar = lost players. red bar = active. blue = new players

Not lost players. Active characters who have achievements posted publicly (ie visible to other players on Lodestone) and had achievement completions in previous quarters but did not have new achievement completions registered for the reported quarter.

LB doesn't list newly inactive characters in the data he shares except for in a column on his census spreadsheet plus a brief mention in the blog he posts. I'd have to run the column titles through Google translate to figure out which columns are for the newly inactive characters, new characters and returning characters (characters that didn't have changes on Lodestone during the previous census period but had been active prior to that).

Also, he doesn't collect data on characters that are level 60 and below because he has no way to determine if the accounts are paid subscriptions or free trial. Once Stormblood become part of the free trial some time in 6.5, I'm certain he'll increase the character level floor to 71.

You are right I mis worded it, but the statement still stands this data is not perfect

True but it's as close to reliable as we're likely to get unless SE decides to start publishing numbers.

Cute catgirls and Victorias secret bunnies can only help them so far.

People want to play a game in a game. I know that sounds crazy.

We've got game play in the game and there are players doing it.

Someone no longer being interested in what game play exists does not indicate a lack of game in the game. It indicates a lack of interest by that individual.

Someone explain to me why these numbers (or graphs or whatever) are 'important'?

They're only important to people who decide to justify their opinion about a game based on how many people are playing it at a certain period in time.

Counterpoint to everyone saying "Wait until Dawntrail"

The goal of every expansion is to end up with more subs at the end of it than you began with. That is how you grow. Right now, if the Bancho survey is any indication, subs are lower than when Shadowbringer released.

That should be concerning for any MMO company. Ending up lower than 2 expansions ago, with a solid decline after a current expansion. It is generally expected, but not at this plummeting rate.

Something needs to change at CBU3 and FFXIV. Repeating the same content schedule (and making it take longer between each patch to boot) for 4 expansions simply isn't good enough anymore

Just as no king lives forever, no game increases the size of its active player base forever.

That is something everyone needs to come to terms with. Nothing is forever in the gaming industry.

MMO developers don't get concerned until they're not making a profit. I doubt FFXIV is close enough to that point yet to cause SE any alarm.

The chaos in the player numbers caused by COVID lockdowns and the WoW exodus means it's difficult to accurately judge what is happening in the player base.

Nothing is going to change with the game because a small vocal number of players insists that it is needed. It will change once the game gets close to the point it is no longer profitable. Will that be too late to react? Hard to say but I bet a lot of developers are watching what happens with Dragonflight closely. If nothing else, YoshiP has been pretty good about learning from WoW examples.

I really dislike this arrogance. "shut up and know your place, daddy SE knows better than you"

people like you are really annoying

So are people who insist a game is dying just because it had a less successful second half of an expansion for a change.

Or perhaps it's almost like you can't accept that FFXIV is doing well, so people logically point out the flaws whenever the next person comes along and makes the same erroneous claims...

The reality is, it's very much growing. Even the data attempting to "prove" it's declining actually prove the opposite. But maybe if you keep convincing yourself that it's failing, you'll eventually believe it? That would be the delusion. I know it's hard to accept that someone made a game you personally don't like but which is wildly popular. Someday you'll get over it.

The reality is we can't be certain of anything since SE doesn't provide concrete numbers for anyone to work with.

It also shouldn't matter whether the game is growing or declining. All that should matter is whether you personally are having fun.

I'm having fun. I intend to keep playing the game. If I stop having fun, I'll stop playing it and either start playing the other games I'm currently into more often or go looking for a new game to enjoy.

If someone is no longer having fun in FFXIV, it's up to them to figure out why they're still here instead of playing something else.

Doomcrying never leads to a game being changed. A lack of paying players does.

[Stormpeaks]

So are people who insist a game is dying just because it had a less successful second half of an expansion for a change.

Literally no one said the game is dying.

Decline =/ game dying

I dare you to find in this thread a single person who said the game is dead or dying, I'll wait.

[seolhyun]

Not lost players. Active characters who have achievements posted publicly (ie visible to other players on Lodestone) and had achievement completions in previous quarters but did not have new achievement completions registered for the reported quarter.

how do u know they are active? they were active in prev quarter but unconfirmed for the next bc they didnt gain any achievement. idk maybe this graph just sucks