I think that these arguments on both sides of the general polarities regarding SE's design changes focus too much on the "acquisition" stage and fail to take into account the additional goal of "retention".
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Though, regarding the hypothetical "new player" — this may also be oversimplified, and assuming too many similarities between diverse individuals.
For example, I think it's very reasonable to argue that very few players try out FFXIV specifically because "SE made BRD dots last for 45 seconds" — since that sort of thing would be gibberish to many prospective players.
However, it's not unreasonable to conceive of someone being more willing to try out FFXIV because their friends can assure them, "It's easy to play", or "Don't worry, it's not like other MMOs, it doesn't take forever to figure out how to play your class / learn your rotation / be able to participate / (etc)".
Those are all genuine turn-offs / pain-points for a lot of "genre-external" players that typically avoid or bail from MMORPGs, especially coming from other, more "jump in and figure it out", genres.
At the same time, it's also not unreasonable to imagine someone being drawn-in to XIV specifically because they are "genre-internal" already, and have read posts on Reddit/Discord/etc, seen streamers, heard word-of-mouth, been informed by friends, etc, etc, that FFXIV has challenging encounters, or complex rotational optimisations, or is difficult to learn, or etc.
...In other words, I think that the effect can cut both ways.
However, I'm also guessing that SE is banking on the general prospective population trending more heavily in one direction than the other, possibly because they feel that they've already "mined-out" most of the plumbable depths of the latter group, and are now targeting the former group more aggressively in order to continue achieving fabled Growth™.
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But getting back to the "retention" point.
First, it's true that a brand-new player who's just bumbling through the MSQ, while constantly being given an overinflated sense of their own power and capability, is unlikely to be seriously-critical of their Job's rotation or performance in either direction.
However, that works to SE's advantage here: there is no need to present long-term depth or complexity for the first X-hundred-hours where someone isn't paying much attention anyway, because they are too distracted by too much other content where there is no real opportunity to actually mine down to said depth, and especially not to ever have time to actually execute it.
As such, primarily, the only risk to retention that simplifying Job gameplay actually presents is in the segment of well-established veterans who are also aware of, capable of, and interested in, capitalising fully on those depthier and more punishing systems.
I mean no dismissal nor derogation when I state that I think those players very likely make up a relative minority of the overall playerbase, and have been since time immemorial.
Therefore, I'd guess that this design shift is a gamble that SE likely believes works in their favor statistically, since they've shifted from producing a boutique MMO passion-product (Heavensward) to "the MMO for everybody" (iterative trend since Stormblood).
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Then to the second "retention" point.
Sooner or later, a new player stops being "new" — in the sense of just wandering around like a tourist at a theme park, gazing in awe at every random gimmicky shack and spectacle, no matter how thin or shallow... and eventually their mind begins seeking justification to remain present in-world.
There's a lot of ways to try to "capture" that, and because people are, in general, fairly diverse in their preferences, I think capturing "correctly" probably involves an aggregate approach akin to grains-of-sand in an hourglass, rather than any one major, specific, tactical nuclear masterstroke piece of content.
ie: For some players, just having housing to maintain is good enough to capture them. For others, the game's natural social environment (such as it is...) will perform the capture. For others, it might be the infinite pursuit of glamour options... others, using Third Party Tools™ to endlessly modify and "improve" their character... and on, and on.
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In that sense, end-game content, raiding, rotational optimisation, etc, also provide a potential capture path.
However, this is where I think a portion of high-functioning players derail their understanding — treating this end-game, performance-oriented content as a binary.
ie: "Only very skilled players, my brethren, like me, who take pride in challenge and iterative improvement, will ever enter here. So therefore, its design only makes sense to target and support said players like us".
In actuality, I'm venturing (with the usual impossibility of certainty, due to unavailable data) that a good slice of players who enter into end-game content actually do so simply because it adds more to their overall palette of "things to do", and/or provides another social outlet with which they can participate in the game with friends (or in some cases, just, "friend-like strangers").
So there is the very real possibility that:
- More simple and approachable Job rotations
- The ability to more confidently reach what feels like the "expected outcome" for a given Job's performance and rotation
- A feeling of being able to focus more clearly on just the encounter mechanics
- ...etc...
...Keeps more players approaching and interacting with that content, and thus serves to make it "stickier" in terms of retention rates.
eg: If someone tries Savage and feels completely-overwhelmed and also inadequate because their rotation is constantly being hopelessly-derailed, or they're pulling numbers too low to remain in the party, or they're being blamed for Enrage timers, or etc... then they are likely to become discouraged quickly and bail from that content, which in turn amputates a slice of potential capture-area from the game.
On the other hand, if someone tries Savage and experiences relatively-accessible success (in the sense that the primary failure-point is just the mechanics themselves, rather than also fighting their own rotation the entire time), then you may have just lured another player into the "weekly grind" content psychology, and might even potentially lure them further into bashing their head against Ultimates (which could extend their subscription by months)... and, etc.
In this sense, making "content more about the content itself", so to speak, potentially adds more "sand grains" to the retention pile.
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Yes, there is always the cynical possibility that SE simply has no idea what they're doing, and makes all of their decisions by just flailing-around blindly — and I know it's very tempting for players frustrated by said decisions to characterise the studio that way. (I've been guilty of this many times myself)
However, I am more and more reluctantly-inclined to assume that SE's designers keep stubbornly following similar patterns for what they see as concrete reasons, rather than just being literally Alice-in-Wonderland insane / Katy t3h PeNgU1N oF d00m "rAnDoM".
As such, I'm speculating that things which make my head want to melt like the finale of Raiders of the Lost Ark — like the current design of Healer Jobs — are probably, from SE's more informed perspective, actually increasing... or at least "prolonging"... per-player retention more than decreasing it.
Any veterans, or players looking for more serious or depthy challenge, that fall by the wayside... are probably, mercenarily-speaking, deemed acceptable attrition against the greater gains.
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But I think that (hypothetical) strategy also has a risk: while very dedicated players tend to form an overall minority in a game, they also tend to serve as potent proselytisers, ambassadors, and inspiration, even to players who don't aspire to that level of play.
Therefore, I think that there's a potential long-term risk of damaging the "prestige" of the game, which might in turn lead to both less acquisition and less retention.
SE, however, may be twigging that gaming is in a different era than it was in, say, 10 years ago, and decided that their primary tool for amplifying game interest is no longer to target the internal MMO gamer community (where "skilled ambassadors" would have the most influence), but instead intentionally trying to both draw-in and retain a much broader selection of players than would typically be expected in an (ostensible) "MMORPG".
This sort of tactic was, after all, one of the contributing factors of what made WOW so potent in its early days, as well — first around Vanilla (when it was fresh and new), and then especially around WOTLK, where they began to abandon one "player-hostile" system after another, en-masse.