We lost 70% of our player base half a year in

[DPZ2]

Just link this person the luckybancho census data, that's enough proof of total population drop caused by lack of player retention between patches.
All data is derived straight from the Lodestone, so its as accurate as anyone can get.

Census data from Lodestone is not "proof of total population drop caused by ..." anything. They have no means to determine the reason the numbers are what they are. They're just data.

You are free to decide in your own mind the "why" for the data points, but never mistake your own beliefs for actual fact here.

[hynaku]

I remember once on FFXI there was only 10 left on the server I started on, and it merged with another. I don't see as many on anymore that use to see on. But it be back up again in 7.0 the population till they finish all the story content.

[SieyaM]

So what do retention numbers look like for other MMOs more than a year after an expansion launch? I have a feeling most MMOs experience rises and falls in population similar to this, unless they have daily chores that you must log in to do or be forever left out which is a terrible model and leads to more of a hostage situation that anything people want to do.

[DPZ2]

Basically anything that proves that the game isnt "thriving" is not valid because it doesnt fit your narrative

The reply you quoted was specifically about interpreting data from the Lodestone census. The numbers are numbers without context. Sorry that doesn't fit your own narrative, but the statement I put in bold is the reality of that particular data source: They have no means to determine the reason the numbers are what they are.

[DixieBellOCE]

Census data from Lodestone is not "proof of total population drop caused by ..." anything. They have no means to determine the reason the numbers are what they are. They're just data.

You are free to decide in your own mind the "why" for the data points, but never mistake your own beliefs for actual fact here.

Yet the data shows spikes that coincide with patch releases, then drastic declines for the following months leading upto the next patch release.

It doesn't take many braincells to work out that the game hemorrhages players after every single patch release, people return, smash out the 2 days of content that is supposed to last 4-6 months, then unsub.

[Thurmnmurmn]

Sadly thats your opinion, as I mentioned, except if you can prove that players on PC, steam or consoles play entirely different activities, its a perfectly fine sample, I know you guys hate to admit it, and it's okay, but it is.

Considering MMOs are a staple of PC gaming way before it was added to consoles, yes there is a large difference.
A large portion of MMO players on PC jump from one to another whenever a new one comes out/has new content. Just look at asmongolds stream to see the game he plays that month spike like crazy. Lost ark, new world, wow, FFXIV, all got huge booms when the streamers came in.
And the difference in PC and console is PC has a ton more in the MMO genre to choose from.

[Thurmnmurmn]

Yet the data shows spikes that coincide with patch releases, then drastic declines for the following months leading upto the next patch release.

It doesn't take many braincells to work out that the game hemorrhages players after every single patch release, people return, smash out the 2 days of content that is supposed to last 4-6 months, then unsub.

And thats the model this game chooses. The game devs have always said take breaks.
The game has a massive backlog of content so if they always add enough to keep you occupied 4 months, you would never have time for the rest of the game (specially for new players)

[DPZ2]

Basically anything that proves that the game isnt "thriving" is not valid because it doesnt fit your narrative

Please quantify the term "thriving" for me, please. I need to know your assumptions about the term "thriving", as well as numbers you would, at an initial guess, use to prove or disprove that a game is "not thriving".

As an example: net sales for the 2023/Q3 Square Enix "Digital Entertainment/MMO division" increased 11 billion yen from net sales in 2021/Q3. They also were down 8 billion yen from net sales in 2022/Q3. Conjecture: the game is "thriving" because it made more money that it did 2 years ago. (It is asserted that the difference between 2022 and 2023 net sales would be income from the initial sale of the Endwalker expansion.)

Another example: The SteamChart for FFXIV indicates the average players in March 2021 as 17,149.9 (gotta love averaging that reduces a player to .9). March 2022 as 17,937.2. March 2023 as 21,718.3. Conjecture: the game is "thriving" because year over year daily averages for Steam players rose by about 4000 over that time period.

That is a game that is thriving.

As for the "Peak players" statistic. It can easily be explained. In December of 2021, there were, at one point in the month, 95,102 Steam players online in the game at the same time. The numbers have dropped and risen in a pattern that suggests peaks when a new patch releases.

As an aside, if one averages the monthly "average players" column from December 2021 through current, one gets 25998.51. The instantaneous average (as of 24 minutes ago) on the chart is 26,596. There are only 2 months out of that time period with a number above 30,000. Under no circumstances do the SteamChart statistics indicate a 70% drop in player base.

That really sounds like the game is "thriving" rather than "not thriving".

But that's using Steam as the sample. I suspect the numbers might be skewed a bit, but without a comprehensive analysis using multiple data sources, one cannot use the Steam statistics to say anything other than Endwalker has been relatively consistent in player numbers on Steam. ("Peak players" is a one-shot, not an average over time)

[MonsutaMan]

https://steamdb.info/charts/?category=20

XIV is the 7th most played MMO on Steam.

War Thunder being so high is impressive considering it is available on Xbox, PS & PC...with an official launcher iirc.

Lost Ark's all-time peak blows XIV out of the water, because LA is pretty much a Steam game.

People see the "1 Million characters!!!!!!!" or whatever & assume many of these top MMO have millions of people playing it everyday. It is more like thousands. I would say around the 200,000 range, maybe higher for top MMO on any given day non-update day imo. I seriously doubt over 2 million people are playing WoW daily like MMO Populations state....but could be wrong...lol....

XIV is pretty well hidden in terms of how they are doing....they will let you know when things are gravy though like most companies lol. I think that fad phase has died down awhile ago. SE advertises XIV heavy; a Google search of anything FF related, takes you to XIV as a reference point. Pretty good strat as a business guy myself.

But man.....people still play Ark? That game broke my past PC....I stand by that until this day lol. I was well past the requirements, but my custom built PC never been the same since...Copped a new one years back.

[DPZ2]

Yet the data shows spikes that coincide with patch releases, then drastic declines for the following months leading upto the next patch release.
.

Yes. It certainly does coincide with patch releases. I even wrote that very same point in a prior post.

Your opinion, is that "the game hemorrhages players after every single patch release". That opinion is not based on any data, because the data provided does not speak of motivation, or the current status of any given players subscription.

My point is that your opinion is not fact.