We lost 70% of our player base half a year in

[Striker44]

If anything it does prove that player retention over time is very low.

They could combat this by adding more endgame content, but any mention of this and the community goes into full white knight mode saying the game is perfect.. but the stats dont lie, if it was perfect players wouldnt leave after a raid tier finishes.

No, the only thing it proves is that retention among Steam players (which is a very small portion of the playerbase and likely to have other interests and profiles than those who play on console or use the SE launcher) follows typical MMO patterns. And even there, the majority of the "drops" have been under 10%. Go in-game and you see a thriving population and realize Steam clashes with reality.

Also, I can't think of a single person who has ever said the game is perfect. Way to set up a straw man when you know you have no actual argument.

[Stormpeaks]

No, the only thing it proves is that retention among Steam players (which is a very small portion of the playerbase and likely to have other interests and profiles than those who play on console or use the SE launcher) follows typical MMO patterns. And even there, the majority of the "drops" have been under 10%. Go in-game and you see a thriving population and realize Steam clashes with reality.

Also, I can't think of a single person who has ever said the game is perfect. Way to set up a straw man when you know you have no actual argument.

How is coping going for you ? The game isnt "thriving", and no matter how much you and the other few keep trying to deny it, steam charts are a very good sample, the only way it wouldnt be a good sample is if you can provide evidence that people playing on standalone and consoles have entirely different activities in the game, which they dont, everyone does a bit of everything in this game. The fact you cant prove that makes the sample from steamcharts valid.

[Thurmnmurmn]

How is coping going for you ? The game isnt "thriving", and no matter how much you and the other few keep trying to deny it, steam charts are a very good sample, the only way it wouldnt be a good sample is if you can provide evidence that people playing on standalone and consoles have entirely different activities in the game, which they dont, everyone does a bit of everything in this game. The fact you cant prove that makes the sample from steamcharts valid.

Like you just said, everyone does a bit of everything in the game. Couldn't you also use that as a counterpoint to what your arguing? Ever think the content you are playing just isn't the popular one which is why you see it differently?
Cuz I can tell you from a hunt conductors point of view. The game is still doing fine and I see 0 reason to worry.
Raids however I have no take on as I don't do that content.

[Stormpeaks]

Like you just said, everyone does a bit of everything in the game. Couldn't you also use that as a counterpoint to what your arguing? Ever think the content you are playing just isn't the popular one which is why you see it differently?
Cuz I can tell you from a hunt conductors point of view. The game is still doing fine and I see 0 reason to worry.
Raids however I have no take on as I don't do that content.

That doesnt change the fact the game isnt "thriving", and the fact that steam charts are a valid source for statistics because they provide a decent sample. I never said the game is empty, but it's not as healthy as the usual people try and make it seem to be.

[DixieBellOCE]

How is coping going for you ? The game isnt "thriving", and no matter how much you and the other few keep trying to deny it, steam charts are a very good sample, the only way it wouldnt be a good sample is if you can provide evidence that people playing on standalone and consoles have entirely different activities in the game, which they dont, everyone does a bit of everything in this game. The fact you cant prove that makes the sample from steamcharts valid.

Just link this person the luckybancho census data, that's enough proof of total population drop caused by lack of player retention between patches.
All data is derived straight from the Lodestone, so its as accurate as anyone can get.

[Thurmnmurmn]

That doesnt change the fact the game isnt "thriving", and the fact that steam charts are a valid source for statistics because they provide a decent sample. I never said the game is empty, but it's not as healthy as the usual people try and make it seem to be.

And that's where we disagree. Not as healthy as end of shb and ew launch yes. But it's just as healthy as any other time if not better.
Also different folks have a different definition of thriving.

[DPZ2]

Yes because samples have never been used for statistics, not at all /s

Samples are used in statistics all the time. The problem statisticians have is matching samples to the general population. I spent 2 years working toward my Masters degree dealing with this kind of mess in the field of Biometrics.

A simple analysis, based on the Steam statistics above: People who bought the game through Steam tended to play more often right after the Christmas holidays. Almost as if they had just bought the game...

A simple analysis: the three highest 30 day periods listed in the sample coincide with Patch 6.25 (October 2022), Patch 6.3 (January 2023) and Patch 6.31 (end of January 2023 and the release of the Omega Protocol Ultimate).

Prediction, based on analysis: I anticipate both average and peak numbers to increase in late May of 2023 when patch 6.4 comes out.

Now, the real question is "how much do you trust the analysis above?". It is certainly more nuanced than "the game is going to heck in a handbasket" or "the game is losing players right and left and will eventually fail". The reasoning is consistent with external factors, but only for Steam players, given the paucity of actual data points for PC and Console players who did not purchase the game through Steam. That, and the tendency of non-statisticians to believe video game trends are driven by something other than the ebb-and-flow of Steam game players who are, by definition, able to play multiple games, but only consecutively, not concurrently.

[I have a Steam account. There are 163 games in my library, mostly strategic games, dating back over 10 years. I do not play FFXIV through Steam]

[CStrife912]

We can only use that steam chart to dictate what the PC playerbase is like..it can't extend to console...you can't use a metric of steam average of 20k players when each world holds 20k at highest capacity, 17k at average capacity without issue. My world alone always has me needing to queue in and I'm not the main world on my DC. I think the metric can't be determined by steam charts....especially with all the other platforms too. Thats even without China servers that don't cater into those metrics as I believe we can't see their DC. I wouldn't go with thriving but its steadily consistent.

[hagare]

I'm still waiting for a point where after players keep leaving, I'm the only person in the game.

[Stormpeaks]

We can only use that steam chart to dictate what the PC playerbase is like..it can't extend to console...you can't use a metric of steam average of 20k players when each world holds 20k at highest capacity, 17k at average capacity without issue. My world alone always has me needing to queue in and I'm not the main world on my DC. I think the metric can't be determined by steam charts....especially with all the other platforms too. Thats even without China servers that don't cater into those metrics as I believe we can't see their DC. I wouldn't go with thriving but its steadily consistent.

Sadly thats your opinion, as I mentioned, except if you can prove that players on PC, steam or consoles play entirely different activities, its a perfectly fine sample, I know you guys hate to admit it, and it's okay, but it is.

Census data from Lodestone is not "proof of total population drop caused by ..." anything. They have no means to determine the reason the numbers are what they are. They're just data.

You are free to decide in your own mind the "why" for the data points, but never mistake your own beliefs for actual fact here.

Basically anything that proves that the game isnt "thriving" is not valid because it doesnt fit your narrative

alright then