Island Sanctuary supply dramatically shifting in the background

[Azuri]

That would really suck if this is the case because we can't do any sort of planning ahead and have to jump on the low supply items on their low supply days, instead of saving them for later days when we have higher Groove.

You're probably right, though. Yesterday was a rest day for me so today I was focusing on what were Nonexistent yesterday and they're all the way up to Sufficient today without my crafting anything. So I've seen the same sort of shift the others are seeing and it's been frustrating.

Oh, you can plan ahead just fine. By the 4th cycle the pattern for every single item is known. It's just not something that's easy to do intuitively unless you have very good pattern recognition skills. A spreadsheet helps. Casual content, you know.

[DarkCobalt]

Supply Pattern Calculator

Island Sanctuary Discord

Thanks for the resources!

[DarkCobalt]

Oh, you can plan ahead just fine. By the 4th cycle the pattern for every single item is known. It's just not something that's easy to do intuitively unless you have very good pattern recognition skills. A spreadsheet helps. Casual content, you know.

Yeah I found a spreadsheet late last night with prediction calculations and they say by cycle 4 it's pretty much guaranteed. I'm going to follow it from now on I guess. It's not my preferred way to do this type of stuff but since the system appears to be entirely random (as suggested in previous posts here), I can't be bothered to tear my hair out trying to figure out which day the item is going to do a coin flip and yeet into the stratosphere.

As a side note, since Cycle 4 is when the "algorithm" gets revealed, should we be putting rest days on Cycle 1 and 2 instead? Or is it better to gamble Cycle 1 and 2 to push some groove even with inefficient items?

[Azuri]

Yeah I found a spreadsheet late last night with prediction calculations and they say by cycle 4 it's pretty much guaranteed. I'm going to follow it from now on I guess. It's not my preferred way to do this type of stuff but since the system appears to be entirely random (as suggested in previous posts here), I can't be bothered to tear my hair out trying to figure out which day the item is going to do a coin flip and yeet into the stratosphere.

As a side note, since Cycle 4 is when the "algorithm" gets revealed, should we be putting rest days on Cycle 1 and 2 instead? Or is it better to gamble Cycle 1 and 2 to push some groove even with inefficient items?

It really is a shame. If the system was a bit more intuitive and followed more "logical" supply and demand trends it would have been fun to engage with on it's own. Sadly trying to avoid spreadsheeting only leads to frustration and the feeling like you have no agency over the system.

Cycle 1 is a definite rest day by default simply because it's the reset day and is completely random. On top of that, no item ever goes "nonexistent" on cycle 1. But just because complete prediction is possible by 4th cycle doesn't mean that you have no information prior to that. In simplified terms, you can always predict one cycle in advance with a caveat that prediction for cycle 2 is not guaranteed to be correct. So the other rest day can go on a cycle where the potential profits seem low (like cycle 5 this week, for example).

[TaleraRistain]

Oh, you can plan ahead just fine. By the 4th cycle the pattern for every single item is known. It's just not something that's easy to do intuitively unless you have very good pattern recognition skills. A spreadsheet helps. Casual content, you know.

Ugh. Forcing everyone to optimize all the fun out of something yet again just so we don't scream in frustration at the arbitrary changes we can't do anything to prevent or guide.

[Rolder50]

Supply Pattern Calculator

Island Sanctuary Discord

As an extension of this, people smarter then I made a full on guide to everything island sanctuary: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...GKPfnHeS5lSOQ#

Has the supply pattern description, guide to all the animal rare spawns, a workshop solver where they figure out what will make the most cowries every day, and so on. It's crazy

[george357]

well i have reacked rank 10 and built all my workshops and grannys and windmills and tree houses and bathhouses and a light house and got my flying mount and fully expanded crops and pastures with good output from the animals and good output from my workshop and grannys so far no glitchs yet

[Jojoya]

Ugh. Forcing everyone to optimize all the fun out of something yet again just so we don't scream in frustration at the arbitrary changes we can't do anything to prevent or guide.

You're not being forced to do it. It's your choice to use tools others have created for optimization efficiency, or just engage with the content on your own.

I'm not really interested in relying on worksheets to figure out what I should be making so I won't. It's good to know that there are pre-determined supply patterns running in the background so I don't feel frustrated if I end up guessing wrong for a day. It's outside of my control, it's optional content that I can do or not do as I want, I'm in no rush to get all the rewards. I'll just relax, enjoy and see what happens.

Josh Strife Hayes - Want to kill your love for game? Be efficient.

You may or may not agree but his reasoning is pretty sound.

[TwistedTea]

You're not being forced to do it. It's your choice to use tools others have created for optimization efficiency, or just engage with the content on your own.

I'm not really interested in relying on worksheets to figure out what I should be making so I won't. It's good to know that there are pre-determined supply patterns running in the background so I don't feel frustrated if I end up guessing wrong for a day. It's outside of my control, it's optional content that I can do or not do as I want, I'm in no rush to get all the rewards. I'll just relax, enjoy and see what happens.

As I replied to you in the other Island thread:

In this context, sure players are partly to blame.

However, the greater responsibility lies with SE and their design choices for what is supposed to be a casual/relaxing experience in SE's own words.

Off-hand examples of questionable design choices:
1. 17k Blue Crowries in one week achievement/title
2. 500k Blue Crowries achievement - this would take about 6 months of earning at least 20k a week

SE could have chosen to design Blue Crowrie income around the passive stuff like the crops/ pasture/granary.

But SE chose to make the greatest source of Blue Crowrie income the workshop.

...At last, stop telling people not to do workshop. It's the main thing on the island. Every single activity eventually ends up feeding workshop. Gathering, granary, pasture and cropland, all of this is connected to workshop. Workshop does not revolve around island, whole island revolves around workshop...

[Deveryn]

As I replied to you in the other Island thread:

In this context, sure players are partly to blame.

However, the greater responsibility lies with SE and their design choices for what is supposed to be a casual/relaxing experience in SE's own words.

Off-hand examples of questionable design choices:
1. 17k Blue Crowries in one week achievement/title
2. 500k Blue Crowries achievement - this would take about 6 months of earning at least 20k a week

SE could have chosen to design Blue Crowrie income around the passive stuff like the crops/ pasture/granary.

But SE chose to make the greatest source of Blue Crowrie income the workshop.

Last week, I was about 1400 shy without using the spreadsheets. No sleep was lost. It'll happen one day, but I'm not concerned about it.

The 500k is a ways off. Why worry about that? Both are titles I'm never going to use.

The island is as relaxing as you make it. Keep blaming SE all you want, the truth is plain as day, but folks don't want to admit it.