Why people still seem to be disagreeing about SAM/Kaiten

[cjbeagle]

Let's consider 6.08 crit variance of Midare using some hypothetical, but reasonable stats.

Let's say a fight takes 10 minutes.
Let's say you Midare once every 12s on average (taking skill speed, Meikyo Shisui, and Tsubame-gaeshi into account)
Let's say you have a 30% chance to crit.
Let's say your non-crit Midares hit for 25k.
Let's say your crit Midares hit for 40k. (+60% modifier)

If you Midare every 12s on average for 10m, that's 50 Midares for the entire fight.

Worst case scenario, you get 0 crits with Midare and do 1,250,000 damage with Midare over the course of 10m, which is 2,083 dps.

Best case scenario, you get 50 crits with Midare and do 2,000,000 damage with Midare over the course of 10m, which is 3,333 dps.

Now, 1.3k dps is nothing to scoff at, but:

- the chance of actually getting 0 crits out of 50 swings with a 30% crit chance is .0000000179846504%.

- the chance of actually getting 50 crits out of 50 swings with a 30% crit chance is .00000000000000000000000000717897988%.



Now let's look some possibilities that are more reasonable:

Let's say for a "lucky" clear, you crit 40% of the time despite only having a 30% crit chance - I think we'd all agree that'd be pretty splendid.

Likewise, let's say for an "unlucky" clear, you crit 20% of the time despite having a 30% crit chance - I think we'd all agree that'd be pretty dismal.

The fight you crit 40% of the time you'd do 1,550,000 damage with Midare over the course of 10m, which is 2,583 dps.

The fight you crit 20% of the time, you'd do 1,400,000 damage with Midare over the course of 10m, which is 2,333 dps.

Call me crazy, but imo their obsession with mitigating crit variance is completely unnecessary if great luck vs terrible luck only amounts to 250 dps.