So, a lottery system and a divide between FC and solo wards, eh?

[Almagnus1]

They will learn the hard way and be wiser or continue down the road of not listening.

You should learn one truth: The first truth you must learn to be wise is "I know nothing". Only once you understand what you do (and do not) know, only then will you gain wisdom.

[Vahlnir]

The complete lack of information on what SE is doing with regards to supply opens up an entire spectrum of possibility. On one end of the spectrum, if nothing is done to address the housing supply issues then the lotto will definitely make things worse.

However, it may end up being a wash if (for example) SE also does the following with the update:

• Each ward gets 20 wards that are personal house only, and another 10 that are FC only
• Island Sanctuaries is a strictly better replacement for gardening
• Players get a workshop through Garlond Ironworks that is an exact duplicate of the FC workshop

The point here is that we don't know, and the more measured (and mature) response is "what was said on the live stream is interesting, but we need more information" rather than the hysterical reactions many have posted on this thread.

You know, I tend to find myself on the opposing side of your takes regarding housing more often than not, but...this is fair. More than fair. I've already judged it and my opinion probably won't change unless they actually do the unexpected and address the supply issue. Past experience has taught me that they probably won't. Will they this time? Like you said, we don't know. I suppose taking the wait and see approach is best regardless of how anyone feels about a lottery system. I am, however, extremely confident in my personal take on the situation.

[NanaWiloh]

You should learn one truth: The first truth you must learn to be wise is "I know nothing". Only once you understand what you do (and do not) know, only then will you gain wisdom.

Drop the truth garbage look at your reply to Vahlnir and waste some brain cells on it as you just pointed out what we know and you don't.

[Vahlnir]

Drop the truth garbage look at your reply to Vahlnir and waste some brain cells on it as you just pointed out what we know and you don't.

They aren't completely wrong though. We don't know everything. I'm pretty sure we can guess what the outcome will be, but I can't say that with 100% certainty. At best...maybe 98.9%.

[NanaWiloh]

They aren't completely wrong though. We don't know everything. I'm pretty sure we can guess what the outcome will be, but I can't say that with 100% certainty. At best...maybe 98.9%.

We don't know which is right but its also obvious. Lotto system would not be needed if they could meet demand. Only promise a lotto system makes is you will get a house when rng decides be that a day, a month or 2 years down the road.

[Vahlnir]

We don't know which is right but its also obvious. Lotto system would not be needed if they could meet demand...

Right, so here we are back at the beginning of this vicious cycle. lol Past experience has dictated that they won't do anything, but we don't know if they will do anything or not this time because it's a brand new system we know almost nothing about. However, they have done nothing to alleviate the actual problem so far, so...back to the start and it begins again. All signs point toward complacency, but we don't know enough yet. My head hurts.

Look at the Cacpot its a lottery and their are players who have played it daily since release and never won the jack pot. Ask yourselves do you want that kind of absurd rng choosing who gets a house?? I don't..

I know I don't. lol

[NanaWiloh]

Right, so here we are back at the beginning of this vicious cycle. lol Past experience has dictated that they won't do anything, but we don't know if they will do anything or not this time because it's a brand new system we know almost nothing about. However, they have done nothing to alleviate the actual problem so far, so...back to the start and it begins again. All signs point toward complacency, but we don't know enough yet. My head hurts.

I speak from a personal perspective I have a fc and personal yet still search for empty plots. Partly for fun and for some friends. Here on Lamia I have seen at best in one week maybe 15 total plots open. Now thinking about how many FC's wants homes how many players want personals...then throwing the idea of letting a lotto decide. Pure cringe, This hole thing is like trying to squeeze a square peg in a round hole..

Look at the Cacpot its a lottery and their are players who have played it daily since release and never won the jack pot. Ask yourselves do you want that kind of absurd rng choosing who gets a house?? I don't..

[Nepentha]

You have yet to explain why bot operators would want a house when that represents millions of gil they could be selling to players.

You also seem to forget you can't just push out a stream of level 1 bots to buy a ticket. Any character still needs to meet purchase eligibility requirements including the deposit fee for the plot, which we assume will be the plot purchase price (it wouldn't make sense to bother with a deposit fee if it wasn't).

Is some bot operator going to tie up over 3 billion gil for the sake of getting a single house? Of course not. They're going to be selling that gil for real money.

****
More thoughts about the mentioned changes, this time with respect to house flipping.

FC wards - house flipping will continue whether FCFS or lottery. Those who want to buy the house would be buying the FC.

Private wards - house flipping will run rampant in the FCFS wards if there is no purchase timer. House flipping might be killed in the lotttery wards depending on relocation rules.

If relocation can bypass the lottery, then there will be house flipping to relocators. If it can't, then flipping would be effectively killed in the private wards. There would be no way to bypass the lottery.

I don't see flippers resorting to selling their service accounts as a way to sell private houses because most players would want the house on the character they already have. I suppose it's still possible in the case of a player who sees owning a large house as the ultimate prestige item to show off (they could always rename/Fantasia the character to their liking after purchase) but I would put it at extremely unlikely.

Yeah that's not very well thought through counter argument, agreed. If they go with a lotto system, I would hope there would be something in place to recognize a ticket holder has already purchased multiple homes in the past and disqualify them. (Though this would have to flag an account rather than just a character. Flippers would just delete and recreate characters.) But only for FC housing, which is the primary method of reselling houses atm since placard timers make it so you can't demo to let someone else purchase the plot.

Housing hoarders do this as well. I know of one person who has bought up 25+ FC houses on 4 different Crystal DC so far. Mostly in the last month and a half and likely will go for more. And SE just turns a blind eye to this sort of thing.

Also they didn't mention relocating at all. Which is the *second* way resellers are continuing operations. They buy up mediums, larges and small properties that are desirable, then sell relocations into those plots (and relocate into an open plot, taking it from people who are already there clicking).

So honestly, I'm waiting to see how they plan to do this before I decide how to feel about it.

[Almagnus1]

Ask yourselves do you want that kind of absurd rng choosing who gets a house?? I don't..

And how do you know we're going to have absurd RNG with choosing a house?

[Almagnus1]

Housing hoarders do this as well. I know of one person who has bought up 25+ FC houses on 4 different Crystal DC so far. Mostly in the last month and a half and likely will go for more. And SE just turns a blind eye to this sort of thing.

Throwing some numbers out there, just make all house owners pay upkeep costs of like 50k gil/week for each small personal house, 100k gil/week for a medium personal house, 200k gil/week for a large personal house, or 1M gil/week for a small FC house, 2M gil/week for medium FC house, or 3M gil/week for a large FC house. If they can figure out how to pay those costs for all the houses they own, the can keep them. If they can't, that's their problem.