Ruby Dragon not biting

[Wilford111]

This is why I hate fishing and avoid it when I can haha

[Neoyoshi]

So i think i just used up any type of heavens favor i'll ever have with fishing rng, i just caught it on my very first window attempt for it.

Just caught it a couple minutes ago. Someone nearby had said they've been fishing for it since the Stormblood Expansion. D: The rng is really wonky.

[LegendWait]

Yea I want to say gratz but... im too frustrated to generate any kind of sympathic response.

This is ridiculous, maybe I'll visit Gilgamesh and try there next time, Sargatanas must be cursed for me.

Seriously im tired of this shit. 6 kuers todays and nothing.

Patience 2 is always about to expire when Kuer shows its face so its always Kuer hq -> Kuer -> You start over with barely enough GP.

Next window is in 9 days, at 7:41 am. Yay. Then its 4 more days for the next one.

[Neoyoshi]

Yea I want to say gratz but... im too frustrated to generate any kind of sympathic response.

This is ridiculous, maybe I'll visit Gilgamesh and try there next time, Sargatanas must be cursed for me.

Seriously im tired of this shit. 6 kuers todays and nothing.

Patience 2 is always about to expire when Kuer shows its face so its always Kuer hq -> Kuer -> You start over with barely enough GP.

Next window is in 9 days, at 7:41 am. Yay. Then its 4 more days for the next one.

Sorry about that, btw, i saw you on the 12pm Ocean fishing boat today. I hope you get your Dragon soon.

[LegendWait]

Sorry about that, btw, i saw you on the 12pm Ocean fishing boat today. I hope you get your Dragon soon.

Thanks mate, good luck on your quest to catch them all, surely you'll catch up on me before long.

[Abelisk]

Where did you get these stats and how were they compiled?

Binomial distribution using the accepted consensus of Ruby Dragon having a 2% catch rate from Ku'er mooch, since mooches cannot be influenced by Surface Slap and in this case, cannot be manipulated to get a specific tug type.

CBH shows the percentages here:

https://en.ff14angler.com/?spot=1001...t=0&cmd=search

TC shows a similar 2.5% so the average could be 2.25% and the rates could be higher (meaning OP would be more of an outlier)

https://ffxivteamcraft.com/db/en/fis...The-Ruby-Price

[ICountFrom0]

Binomial distribution using the accepted consensus of Ruby Dragon having a 2% catch rate from Ku'er mooch, since mooches cannot be influenced by Surface Slap and in this case, cannot be manipulated to get a specific tug type.

I tend to calculate for a 99.9% success chance, though the math is more anoying then just running through a number of catch amounts. 350 attempts give or take, (as I'm too tired, too HOT) to do the math. Given what, 3 per window? 120 windows? Two weeks between each window?

[LegendWait]

I tend to calculate for a 99.9% success chance, though the math is more anoying then just running through a number of catch amounts. 350 attempts give or take, (as I'm too tired, too HOT) to do the math. Given what, 3 per window? 120 windows? Two weeks between each window?

If I remember my math :

R = 1 - ((1 - p) ^ i)

at 2% (p) the probability to catch it over each iteration (i) so for R => 0.99, I think you need 232 iterations or kuers casts


1 - ((1 - 0.02) ^ 232)) = 0.99078

Please correct me if I'm wrong, I'm not a math expert

[ItMe]

snip

Thank you for the information.
These links are very interesting~

[Eric_Riot]

Question: What site do you use that can see weather cycles day's in advance?

Here is the site I use when trying to fish up the warden (4 so far yay). But it does not extend out more then 2 1/2 days.

https://ffxiv.pf-n.co/skywatcher

ty!