Emet-Selch set things up so that his death as "Solus" would happen while he had declared no "official" heir just to destabilize Garlemald into a civil war within the Royal Family. And then when he saw an opportunity to start yet another Calamity (because apparently the 7th Umbral Calamity wasn't enough for him) he eggs Varis on until he sets it up. The entire conversation between Varis and Emet-Selch (the very first time we meet Emet-Selch!) has Emet-Selch telling Varis that it's not Varis' job to think; just to do what Emet-Slech tells him to do... which by the time of 5.4 is to use Black Rose while causing a huge war (since that can cause the 8th Umbral Calamity). Which Varis does in the doomed timeline. The only reason why he can't do it in the "current" timeline... is because Gaius, Alphinaud and Estinian are running around destroying all the stockpiles of Black Rose, which they never got the opportunity to do in the "doomed" timeline.Varis: Our homeland was plunged into civil war for your failure to name a successor. The edifice you so carefully constructed was but a hair's breadth from collapse!
Solus (Emet-Selch): Are you truly so naive? You thought me oblivious to the consequences? Of a departure so painstakingly timed?
Varis: ...It was by design!?
Solus (Emet-Selch): But of course it was! Though I will admit the resulting panic exceeded even my wildest expectations. But how can you be surprised? Throwing the world into disarray was the very purpose for which this nation was, as you say, "so carefully constructed".
Incidentally, the reason Emet-Selch doesn't posses Varis is because someone needs to head over to the 1st Shard to make sure it's still on track for a Rejoining when Black Rose goes off. And the Ascians looking over the 1st Shard are now dead... And why waste time possessing someone who has already been manipulated into doing what you want them to do. No one gets on Varis' nerves like Emet-Selch does.