Red Mage Opener confusion

[Kabooa]

Well that quite frankly is why, I don't make the decision whether to use Acceleration or not until after my first cast.

If it procs on the first cast, you don't need to use Acceleration at that point which makes it moot, and you will get to your first Melee combo faster because you waited on it.

I can see Rongway's point in attempting to stablilize your Rotation for Raid buffs, but I just don't think you can do a predictable opener or even playstyle with RDM because of the Procs.

Holding acceleration doesn't "get you to first melee" faster. Quickest case scenario is still 8th gcd, because the quickest case scenario is Acceleration's guarantee of 3 procs.

Holding it is actually a 25% chance to delay it until the 10th GCD with mana overcap from Manaficiation.

[Silverquick]

Holding acceleration doesn't "get you to first melee" faster. Quickest case scenario is still 8th gcd, because the quickest case scenario is Acceleration's guarantee of 3 procs.

Holding it is actually a 25% chance to delay it until the 10th GCD with mana overcap from Manaficiation.

I don't even think that's true.

Because a Proc at high level procs three times in a row just like Acceleration.

So if your opening cast procs, you have 3 in a row. Then at that point if the next cast after that doesn't proc, the you can hit Acceleration... or it might just proc again so you've got another 3 procs coming.

This is why I said what I did.

I understand trying to "force" stabilize it per se the way Rongway is talking about... but that still doesn't change how fast or slow you're going to end up in your melee combos, because they are completely unpredictable.

Which in my opinion is why RDM DPS has such a huge disparity between high and low damage. The Rotation just does not follow a set pattern because of the way the Job and Procs work.

[Kabooa]

I don't even think that's true.

The wonderful part about math is you don't have to agree with it.

It's either right or it's wrong, and in this case, you cannot get to melee from 0/0 faster than after the 8th GCD, which requires 3 procs that Acceleration guarantees.

[Akiudo]

The wonderful part about math is you don't have to agree with it.

It's either right or it's wrong, and in this case, you cannot get to melee from 0/0 faster than after the 8th GCD, which requires 3 procs that Acceleration guarantees.

didn't we allready have this discussion when like 5 different people tried to explain to him the differences between dps/adps/rdps ? pretty sure "not agreeing with math" is like a hobby to him...

[Rongway]

Because a Proc at high level procs three times in a row just like Acceleration.

So if your opening cast procs, you have 3 in a row. Then at that point if the next cast after that doesn't proc, the you can hit Acceleration... or it might just proc again so you've got another 3 procs coming.

That's not how probability works. There is a 0.5^3 chance that you will get three natural procs in a row--a mere 12.5%.

If we represent procs as bits (0s and 1s) with 1 being a proc, we get the following possibilities (considering just Verslowspells cast, and without regard to mana, for which the math would look similar anyway):

000 - no procs, 1110 potency

001 - 1 proc, 1130 potency (one Jolt can be replaced by a Verfastspell)
010 - 1 proc, 1130 potency
100 - 1 proc, 1130 potency

011 - 2 procs, 1150 potency (two Jolts can be replaced)
101 - 2 procs, 1150 potency
110 - 2 procs, 1150 potency

111 - 3 procs, 1170 potency (three Jolts can be replaced)

Add up all these potencies and divide by 8 (the number of possible outcomes) and then divide by 3 (the number of Verslowspells in each case), we get 380, the expected value of a Verslowspell if it has a 50% chance to upgrade a Jolt to a Verfastspell. Acceleration forces the last outcome, where all three Verslowspells are guaranteed to be worth 390.

We didn't have to do all that math though. Expected Value of every Verslowspell is 370 (the Verslowspell's potency) plus 10 (50% of the difference between a Jolt and a Verfastspell) because there is a 50% chance to proc.

With Acceleration, the Expected Value of a Verslowspell is 370 + 20 (100% the difference between Jolt and a Verfastspell). This is a gain of 10 potency per Verslowspell.

Using it later only shifts which three Verslowspells have their expected values boosted. You don't gain by holding it to see if you can get natural procs, because there's a 50% chance that it will naturally not-proc, giving an Actual Value of 370+0, and a 50% chance that it will naturally proc, giving an Actual Value of 370+20, and when we average these together, that's still the Expected Value of 370+10.

So instead of having a string of five Verslowspells with expected values: 390, 390, 390, 380, 380 from using Acceleration ASAP; waiting only gives you expected values: 380, 390, 390, 390, 380; or 380, 380, 390, 390, 390. The number of forced procs hasn't changed, just where they lie.

It's better to use Acceleration sooner so you get more uses out of it than to hold it and hope for natural procs.

I understand trying to "force" stabilize it per se the way Rongway is talking about... but that still doesn't change how fast or slow you're going to end up in your melee combos, because they are completely unpredictable.

???

Your first melee combo is 100% predictable.

And even after the first one, there isn't actually that much RNG to RDM.

You get 35 mana refunded per combo. If it's before a Manafication, it's effectively a refund of 70 mana. Use Acceleration ~45s into the battle for three more forced procs. Note that in a proper opener, with Acceleration used 10s before pull, Acceleration cools down 14s earlier than if you had begun the battle with just Verslowspell-Verotherslowspell before deciding whether to use Acceleration. Use Acceleration again on cooldown. So what if there was a 50% chance to proc anyway; Acceleration still increases the Expected Value of three Verslowspells from 370+(0.5(300-280))=380 to 370+(1.0(300-280))=390.

Which in my opinion is why RDM DPS has such a huge disparity between high and low damage. The Rotation just does not follow a set pattern because of the way the Job and Procs work.

RDM play is predictable enough. It is 100% predictable in the opener, and with all the rebates and forced procs, Jolt should account for no more than about 30% of your hard casts throughout a fight, much less than the 50% raw probability of just considering Verslowspells without the rest of the RDM action set.

[Gruntler]

I don't even think that's true.

Using:
VS=Verstone, VSr=has Verstone Ready
VF=Verfire, VFr=has Verfire Read
VT=Verthunder, VA=Veraero

The fastest you can possibly get a melee combo is:

VT (procs)/VA (procs) (11/11, VSr+VFr)->VS/VA(procs) (11/31, VSr+VFr)->VF/VT (31/31, VSr)->Verstone/Verthunder (40/41)

This require three procs, and it requires the first three spells to proc.

Acceleration forces the first three to proc.

There is nothing else to question after that. Any scenario that makes you Jolt in this will prevent you from having 40/41. Replacing a VS puts you at 34/44, and replacing a VF puts you at 43/32 at your 8th cast, and holding acceleration to see if neither your first VT or VA proc means your third spell is jolt, so you cannot get 40/40 by 8th gcd in this case, even if you decide to Accelerate regardless of procs.