Is the basket portion truly random I wonder? So far, I've been standing on the last visible location of the basket with the coins during the sliding segment, and I've yet to end up on the tile with Daigoro even once out of the ~15 times I've tried so far. I do sometimes end up on the tile with nothing, but no Daigoro. Could be an insanely lucky streak, but even at a 66% chance to win it seems like I should've failed at least once by now.
I'm aware at the very end of the animation the 3 baskets combine in the middle and spin even faster than humanly possible to track, and it seems like it makes trying to guess based on the sliding movement prior to that pointless. But I have a hunch that the last portion of the animation is 'cosmetic', and the movements leading up that which are fast but still trackable are true representations.
Either way I'm rather enjoying it, putting what I said aside, all the randomness from the bamboo parts can be overcome with quick enough reactions. I'd say it's actually about as difficult as ultimate predation in uwu, which is pretty fun since you wouldn't expect mechanics like this from a gate.
I'd at the very least like the slice marks to be more noticeable. I enjoy this mini game and welcome more like it as a main stage event but gosh dang it when there's 4 bamboo sticks up... I simply cannot see all 4 of them or identify each one's pattern because of how they're blocking one another.The slight movement they do after being cut just isn't quite enough to me, I've only succeeded at the event once in the millions of times I've tried. The bright side is, I always seem to locate where the gold is hidden because I'm good at tracking the cup's movements.
I don't think 15 times sounds like enough to think it's not just luck, especially if you're not consistently getting the coins.
I think you'd have to be tracking the placements of all three cups, and seeing if all three are revealed where you thought they d be, to confirm if there's a possibility of it being predictable. Even if it's truly random, there's a 1-in-6 chance of it matching by coincidence.
Last edited by Iscah; 01-07-2020 at 09:12 PM.
Yeah I intend to keep an eye on it a bit longer, definitely can't rule out it just being luck after only 15 attempts. I have some conjectures about the results I've observed from the basket shuffling segment though,
- Following the basket with the coins will lead you to the tile with the coins every time. The instances where I got nothing instead, I made a mistake tracking the basket (and avoided Daigoro by pure luck).
- Same as above. The shuffling is real, but I didn't make any mistakes, and the shuffle is coded in a way that the basket with the coins can turn into coins or nothing, but never Daigoro. So it doesn't guarantee you the coins, but your reward for tracking the basket is knowing you won't get Daigoro.
The 2nd one seems kind of arbitrary to me, but who knows how the thing is coded behind the scenes.
- It's just plain 33/33/33% rng that can't be predicted and I've just been getting lucky this whole time
I rather just not have Daigoro be part of the cup portion. On a psychological level, when the presence of reward exists where barring opportunity nothing is invested, the absence of reward is enough of a punishment for choosing incorrectly. Having one cup with the chance of doubling your earnings, and two cups that do not, is sufficient and more in spirit with what the Gold Saucer is, or at least should be.
People are more willing to accept the random nature of Any Way the Wind Blows given its volatility from the onset. Of course that has some ways of drastically altering your success rate, though I blame that more on implementation specification more than design intent, and won't be surprised to see that revised next.
I think I'm at 20+ tries now, and I've still yet to get knocked out by Daigoro even once, it's really strange.
I'm starting to think I'm overthinking the cup shuffling part, and that the portion of the shuffle animation that you can track actually plays out the exact same way each time with no deviation. But that means I've been picking the same tile every time too - the initial tile that the gold appears on (which also happens to be the where the gold basket is last seen during the shuffle, before it gets combined in the middle).
Has anyone ever chosen that tile and gotten Daigoro afterwards? Maybe I've just been insanely lucky.
The first 6 or 7 times I decided to track, Daigoro would always end up where the gold pile had originally been (which would make sense, this is Daigoro we're talking about). Then it started becoming random where he would be (including where he started). I'm sure it had been random all along with him ending up in other spots the times I wasn't present to watch.I think I'm at 20+ tries now, and I've still yet to get knocked out by Daigoro even once, it's really strange.
I'm starting to think I'm overthinking the cup shuffling part, and that the portion of the shuffle animation that you can track actually plays out the exact same way each time with no deviation. But that means I've been picking the same tile every time too - the initial tile that the gold appears on (which also happens to be the where the gold basket is last seen during the shuffle, before it gets combined in the middle).
Has anyone ever chosen that tile and gotten Daigoro afterwards? Maybe I've just been insanely lucky.
Unless you're also picking the tile where the gold ends up every time, chalk it up to luck.
Yeah it finally happened to me today, so I guess it's just plain random and I've been insanely lucky. Seriously, I've already played it 20+ times, probably almost 30 now, and it took till now to finally happen.
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