Nier raid 2b outfit rant.

[Raiya]

I kinda calculated a 4.3% to 4.4% from getting the chest if 24 people roll for it and if two people got it already respectively. So you have 3 chances of roughly 4-ish% of getting it. If the chest were split on each alliance, it would be a 12%. Here is when I'm confused... 3 attempts of 4% or 1 attempt of 12%? What's better?

Its 12.5% a run with 3 chances to try. The boxes are unique marked so if you get one you cannot get another while its in the inventory.

[KitingGenbu]

Honestly they should have just made this a quest reward instead of raid. I get the argument of it gets people doing the raid more than once but as it stands people are gonna be doing it weekly for their gear and coin anyway. On top of that allowing people who have already won it roll again if they so please it just a kick in the dick to the people are trying to win it for the first time. I've done this raid 14 times already and every single time RNG gives me the middle finger salute and that's that.

Would've been a better idea for sure and hopefully it's something they do going forward. Chest could've came in that little chain you do after the raid or something, similar to how you get alpha through the quest after the omega raid. Just give the raid a neir minion or something.

[HyoMinPark]

As for continuously obtaining the chest, I would say that would be a more realistic and sooner seen issue to solve vs overhauling the system. All they have to do is do it like how you can't loot mount items once its already in your character's system. Probably a bit more elaborate to code since mounts just go to a tab and the clothes can be literally anywhere on your character's accessible inventories (retainer/dresser/etc). I suppose if they had that much sorted out, you'd only ever be able to have one map across all inventories.

They’d have to do some type of recoding. Even now, you can obtain numerous copies of Unique gear pieces so long as they’re all stored in separate inventories (e.g., Saddlebag, Armory chest, Retainer inventories, Glamour Dresser). I’ve ended up with copies of some of the dungeon gear because I’ve forgotten I had them shoved away in a retainer for later leveling and just never fished them back out.

Its 12.5% a run with 3 chances to try. The boxes are unique marked so if you get one you cannot get another while its in the inventory.

Your chances will go down with fewer coffers, so it’s not always 12.5%—I think that’s likely applicable only to the initial lotting where you have all 24 players rolling on all 3 coffers (3 rolls, 24 players: 3/24 = 1/8 = 12.5% chance of winning 1 of the 3 available coffers before any are awarded). The second roll, after 1 person has already won, is an odds of 2 rolls per player, with 23 players rolling (again, assuming all are rolling). So, 2/23 = 8.69% chance to win 1 of the 2 coffers now available. The final coffer will be 1 lot among the remaining 22 players: 1/22 = 4.54% chance for your roll to win that 1 coffer.
This is the math I’ve done. It’s been a while since I’ve taken any sort of probability, so this could be incorrect in terms of its figuring. But I think it’s relatively correct. If it’s wrong, someone can feel free to provide me with counter math.

Having 1 available roll against 21 other players is lower odds than 3 available rolls against 23 others assuming everyone is still rolling; which, right now, is likely to be a majority of parties since the content is still new.

[SturmChurro]

Honestly they should have just made this a quest reward instead of raid. I get the argument of it gets people doing the raid more than once but as it stands people are gonna be doing it weekly for their gear and coin anyway. On top of that allowing people who have already won it roll again if they so please it just a kick in the dick to the people are trying to win it for the first time. I've done this raid 14 times already and every single time RNG gives me the middle finger salute and that's that.

I love this. You and me are in the same boat, I ended up doing it all night, because I had nothing better to do, and it is fairly mindless, but I have done it about 14 times total and also lost every single time. Reminds me of a few months ago clearing innocence EX 130+ times and never winning the mount. Actually, I only ever saw that mount drop like once or twice in all those runs, it was ridiculous. This time they drop every time, but the chances even when you roll high are low. You gotta get really lucky. Especially when you can effectively say you will always be fighting the full raid for the coffers.

[PyurBlue]

Your chances will go down with fewer coffers, so it’s not always 12.5%—I think that’s likely applicable only to the initial lotting where you have all 24 players rolling on all 3 coffers (3 rolls, 24 players: 3/24 = 1/8 = 12.5% chance of winning 1 of the 3 available coffers before any are awarded). The second roll, after 1 person has already won, is an odds of 2 rolls per player, with 23 players rolling (again, assuming all are rolling). So, 2/23 = 8.69% chance to win 1 of the 2 coffers now available. The final coffer will be 1 lot among the remaining 22 players: 1/22 = 4.54% chance for your roll to win that 1 coffer.
This is the math I’ve done. It’s been a while since I’ve taken any sort of probability, so this could be incorrect in terms of its figuring. But I think it’s relatively correct. If it’s wrong, someone can feel free to provide me with counter math.

Having 1 available roll against 21 other players is lower odds than 3 available rolls against 23 others assuming everyone is still rolling; which, right now, is likely to be a majority of parties since the content is still new.

I decided to try my hand at the math. Usually you approach a problem like this by finding out the probability of failure and then subtracting that from 1 to get the probability of success. Probability of failure in this case is losing all rolls:

((P-1)/P)*((P-2)/P-1))*((P-3)/P-2))*...

P is the number of party members. There is a lot of cancellation which leads to:

(P-R/P)

With R being the number of roll chances. In the case of Alliance Raids, P = 24 and R = 3. Our chance of failure is 21/24 = 87.5%. So our chance of success is 1 - failure, which is 12.5%.

[GrumbleBeard]

If you want it so badly, then run it until you get it. When I heard it was loot from the raid, I figured there would only be one to roll on. 3 is pretty generous and i don't mind multiple runs because I enjoy the game.

[wereotter]

Likely if they're giving out a costume a run we get 9S for the next one and A2 on the final.

Keeping my fingers crossed since I really like what 9S is wearing.

[Bright-Flower]

An A2 costume would be...interesting considering she actually has barely any 'clothing.' Most of that black isn't her clothes, its where her fake skin has worn off over time. Though I guess they could just pattern black cloth in the same areas.

[Lilseph]

Its 12.5% a run with 3 chances to try. The boxes are unique marked so if you get one you cannot get another while its in the inventory.

Thanks! I read some maths below to back this up. I am terrible at this.

An A2 costume would be...interesting considering she actually has barely any 'clothing.' Most of that black isn't her clothes, its where her fake skin has worn off over time. Though I guess they could just pattern black cloth in the same areas.

I truly want her hairstyle.

[Usernamewastaken]

I'm not personally seeing the issue, here. At least with the coffers.

I saw someone mention "make it 1 per party", but what difference does that make?

With 3 coffers in 24 people, the math gets more complicated (and I'm not talking 3 divided by 24), but ultimately remains the same. Long story short, if everyone rolls on everything, the odds of you getting at least one coffer is roughly 12%. Literally. That's just a miniscule fraction short of 1 in 8.

So my question becomes... why the complaints on that front? The coffer is something you can run the raid as many times as you want, and you're guaranteed what amounts to a 1 in 8 chance every single time you run it. For a coffer containing nothing less than the full outfit. What other content offers that kind of forgiving loot system?

If it's per group that 1 of 8 then becomes easier with a premade, 50 runs turn into 8.