I crunched a lot of numbers for it while writing my previous post, but removed them for brevity.
Looking at my last E4S clear, an average Malefic is worth 16.6k. For a 15 second card to break even, it needs to cause a 1.1k dps boost. This is the magic number. If a GCD card produces less than that amount then it would be better to skip it in favour of Malefic.
10th percentile Innocence Ex dps ranges from 7.2-8.5k dps. At this level of performance a card would need to be at least 13.0-15.3% bonus damage to break even.
50th percentile is 10.1-11.5k. To break even buffing these players would require 9.6-11.0% to match a Malefic.
95th percentile is 12.4-14.4k. These players would need 7.7-8.9%.
I used Innocence Ex numbers because there's pretty high uptime during that fight and it's easy enough that a large range of player skills will be represented.
Who do you balance these buffs around? If you balance them around the 95th percentile players then using all of an AST's kit is suboptimal play if the rest of the party isn't at a high level of performance. If instead cards are balanced around buffing the weakest possible players then AST rdps inflates as the party improves. A 15% card that equals Malefic's 16.6k damage on weak players will deal 27.9k on the 95th percentile player.
If cards are balanced around being worth, say, 2x Malefic when placed on a 50th percentile player (19.2-22.0%) then they will always be worth spending a GCD for, but then you run into problems with AST's damage being vastly superior in strong parties. The larger the percent bonus, the greater the impact that having a strong party has on AST dps. If AST is equal to WHM and SCH in a 50th percentile party, then they will be better 100% of the time with a stronger party, and the performance gap will grow as the buff percentage increases. By the same token, AST will be vastly inferior in weaker parties. This is a certainty whenever a significant portion of performance depends on other players.
Edit: One possible alternative would be to keep cards at their current effectiveness (3/6%, 4/8%), put them on the GCD, and give the AST a dps buff when one is played to balance the lost Malefic. Increase next spell's potency by 100%. If that is too powerful (hello 900 potency Combust III, or 1200 potency in 5.1) then the buff could be reduced to 25% for the next four spells. This way the card would always pay for its Malefic cost while the percentage buff could stay small enough to not cause wild imbalance in peak high and low performing parties.



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