[SPOILERS] No one seems to be talking about that OTHER huge event

[Alleo]

Who uses it is not important, only that it is. If Elidibus can delay us from undoing the work put into setting up the first for a rejoining then Elidibus can take a supply of Black Rose and deploy it himself, setting off the calamity. It could also be that with the death of Varis and Zenos abdicating the throne out of not caring Garlemald starts to break down into civil war with each Legatus trying to claim the throne of the Emperor, which would make it insanely easy for the Eorzean Alliance and Doman Alliance to start pushing into Garlemald proper. Which could very well cause a Legatus who still has some Black Rose facilities in his territory deploying the weapon in an effort to stem the flow of outside forces, as they are fighting a civil war, an outbreak of rebellion is likely as well, and cannot put up a united front against external threats.

As long as the first remains primed for rejoining, which it still is, then all it takes is the deployment of Black Rose to cause the calamity. This is why the raid story is tied to the main story directly this time around rather then being a side threat. By fixing up the Empty via Eden we can cause a cascade to restore the elemental balance of 90% of the world, basically a reverse flood. Which would un-prime the First from the rejoining. Leaving Black Rose as no longer a threat.

Well for me it is important who did it because we do know the views of people and thus it could have only truly been Varis or Elidibus. Also there is no indication in the bad future that anything had happend with Varis, because I do believe that the death of an Emperor would make changes. Like you said it could very well lead to civil war. Would Garlemald still fight in Eorzea then? The future did make it sound like the war was still going on which imo makes not much sense if one country has problems on the inside. Thats why I believe that the bad future had played out quite different thus we already changed most of that anyway.

Is it still primed for rejoining? I really got the feeling that we stopped the rejoining by simply destroying the lightwardens. Because with no Lightwarden left, the huge amount of Light is gone and most sineasters will probably be dealt with soon enough. The exarch being ready to send us all back indicates that the danger had passed. And Emet wanted to use us as the most powerful sineater to start the rejoining again which hints that we did stop it by killing all the wardens.

Eden itself is only a side story not main story. And its not there to stop any further light but to bring back more land to the first. Theoretically as far as we know the first could have still continued on with life just with 90% of its land gone. There is imo no indication that the flood of light ist still happening right now. Otherwise it makes no sense that Elidibus would give up the body of Zenos that easily. He probably sensed that we changed the first and killed Emet thus knew that the flood was stopped.

Will write proper replies later, but just now it occurred to me that G'raha's expectations for the outcome of his time travel activities are consistent with a "late split" that happens during the events of 5.0, not back in 3.X/4.X when he time-traveled to the past.

He thinks he will be erased from existence once we have successfully avoided the bad timeline.

Therefore current events would still be part of the path that could lead to the bad timeline.

Arriving on the First was not the point at which the bad future was prevented.

I thought that him believing that he would cease to exists hints that he too thought that only one timeline exits and that us changing it would mean that he will be gone because "he" as the exarch will not come to pass. Which also makes it a great sacrifice on everyone that was living in that bad future (but it seems like the world was doomed) because they too would cease to be. Him still being there could hint at a lot of stuff. That could mean that the bad future can still happen but as I wrote quite much already, I doubt that. The whole story just feels that we have done the impossible and changed it. I just cant see how the stuff would still happen in the bad timeline, especially with the scions still stuck on the first, Elidibus not being Zenos anymore and Zenos being against black rose. Also the first would need to be plunged into another state of rejoining.

There could also be the chance that your theory is true and there was a split and the bad timeline will continue to exists as a side line on itself, which means that Graha was wrong about how timelines work, everyone will still have to suffer on that line and it also just leaves my head spinning. So I hope that this is not correct and the exarch is just a huge paradox that should not exists but does so for reasons.

[Iscah]

I thought that him believing that he would cease to exists hints that he too thought that only one timeline exits and that us changing it would mean that he will be gone because "he" as the exarch will not come to pass.

Again, I'll write more later. But what I mean is that regardless of how it actually works, G'raha thinks that he will be present until the timeline is altered and the single future changed from 'bad' to 'good'. Urianger has the same conclusion when they are discussing it.

Therefore, by their interpretation, we are still in the unchanged timeline during Shadowbringers and after G'raha became involved in events - the turning point from bad to good future still lies ahead of us. It's only when we've defeated Hades and reversed the flood that he says "that's strange, we've changed the outcome but I'm still here". It wasn't strange before that, because he expected his future to still be there, not yet changed.

[Alleo]

Again, I'll write more later. But what I mean is that regardless of how it actually works, G'raha thinks that he will be present until the timeline is altered and the single future changed from 'bad' to 'good'. Urianger has the same conclusion when they are discussing it.

Therefore, by their interpretation, we are still in the unchanged timeline during Shadowbringers and after G'raha became involved in events - the turning point from bad to good future still lies ahead of us. It's only when we've defeated Hades and reversed the flood that he says "that's strange, we've changed the outcome but I'm still here". It wasn't strange before that, because he expected his future to still be there, not yet changed.

Oh I did understand your point, but the problem is that NPCs are not 100% aware of everything, they too can only speculate about certain things. And that him still being there could have many reasons, one of course being that bad future can still happen. But with all that is happening right now (Varis death, Zenos not wanting to use black rose, Elidibus without the body, black rose production destroyed quite a bit) and with the hint that we have at least put a stop to the flood thus the rejoining (thus the weapon would not be that effective) I just cant see how that bad future can still happen. Of course we still can fail, but that can happen at any part of the story.

[TankHunter678]

-snip-

1) The devs did outright state that the Eden raid story is tied to the main story in one of the live letters before Shadowbringers came out. It is a side story mechanically so as to go alongside the other events the patches will be bringing and not force people to have to complete the raid to move along the MSQ.
2) All we know of the Black Rose deployment is that Garlemald deployed it. Not anyone within specifically. Varis was also getting ready to deploy Black Rose himself, it was part of the discussion that him and Elidibus were having before Zenos crashed in on the party upset with the fact that Varis was even getting such a weapon ready. This means that anyone could have used it provided they had access to it and a reason to use it. Even Elidibus possessing a Garlean Legatus.
3) Emet-Selche made it clear that just getting rid of the lightwardens was not enough. With 90% of the planet tilted massively into the light does taking down a few lightwardens really do anything? It solves an immediate problem, that of the Flood being resumed but does not solve the fact the planet is still so full of light that it is set for rejoining.
4) There is no way for the Eorzean Alliance and Doman Alliance to be able to take on the full might of the empire and their airship fleets if Garlemald is unified. However if Garlemald is breaking down into civil war then it becomes easy for them to push in and trigger a panic deployment. Of the future after the deployment of Black Rose everyone starts turning on each other because no only are people dying to the weapon but the very land itself. Causing everyone to have to fight to survive and leading to every nation breaking down into ever smaller communities.

[Alleo]

1) The devs did outright state that the Eden raid story is tied to the main story in one of the live letters before Shadowbringers came out. It is a side story mechanically so as to go alongside the other events the patches will be bringing and not force people to have to complete the raid to move along the MSQ.
2) All we know of the Black Rose deployment is that Garlemald deployed it. Not anyone within specifically. Varis was also getting ready to deploy Black Rose himself, it was part of the discussion that him and Elidibus were having before Zenos crashed in on the party upset with the fact that Varis was even getting such a weapon ready. This means that anyone could have used it provided they had access to it and a reason to use it. Even Elidibus possessing a Garlean Legatus.
3) Emet-Selche made it clear that just getting rid of the lightwardens was not enough. With 90% of the planet tilted massively into the light does taking down a few lightwardens really do anything? It solves an immediate problem, that of the Flood being resumed but does not solve the fact the planet is still so full of light that it is set for rejoining.
4) There is no way for the Eorzean Alliance and Doman Alliance to be able to take on the full might of the empire and their airship fleets if Garlemald is unified. However if Garlemald is breaking down into civil war then it becomes easy for them to push in and trigger a panic deployment. Of the future after the deployment of Black Rose everyone starts turning on each other because no only are people dying to the weapon but the very land itself. Causing everyone to have to fight to survive and leading to every nation breaking down into ever smaller communities.

1. Something being tied to the main story does not mean that the main story is not resolved on its own. They could have easily just meant that after stopping the flood of light and saving the first we will bring back more lands thanks to our actions in Eden. (Its what Ryne wants too, to be able to rebuilt) Its also right now not that much more tied than other stories. Urianger even says that we are not allowed to tell anyone else outside of the small group. So as long as they dont make it necessary to do the next MSQ it cant be that important to the MSQ itself. Its more about helping the people further down the road. Ingame the Exarch is ready to send us all back and the whole time they talk about how defeating the Lightwardens will save this shard and the source. Why would he do that if it was not save? The reason he called us was to stop the rejoining, sending us back, especially at a point where nothing horrible is happening on the source makes no sense, if its still all in danger.

2. Seemingly Elidibus even when using the body of Zenos needed Varis "yes" to start it. We do had one scene where he was ready to act but Varis was silent on this and Elidibus told him to decide soon. That sounds like such a weapon would need high permission to be activated. I mean a lower officer also cant just activate an atom bomb in our world either. So for me it makes the most sense to have been Varis and since he is death and Zenos outright says that he wont use it, then it makes this very certain that the weapon is done for. I mean Elidibus on the moon seemingly has also dropped the plan and is now throwing another bunch of WoLs at us.

3. He said that it was not enough because we would be having that light inside. And of course if the people dont change they could fall back into being stagnate which could introduce more Light. But he was quite happy when he thought that we will turn and become a Lightwarden because we would then finally finish what he began and what we stopped. Yes there is still light in the empy which will make it hard to survive for a longer time but at the same time the sky seems to be fine too. I think this is truly just us trying to resolve the aftermaths and make the land habitable again. I mean if Eden was the part where it would finally save the shard wouldnt it be bad that this conclusion is behind a raid quest? One would do the MSQ and somehow never truly save anything but going with Ryne and the others on a side adventure would suddenly solve the main problem? And again the exarch would have sent us all home when the problem is not solved at all?

4. Well Garlemald was unified the whole time (well minus all the rebellions going on in the conquered lands) and seemingly even without us Eorzea was holding their ground, pushing for a stalemate. In the future that Urianger saw he said that Eorzea was not only able to hold their ground but to slowly turn it around and push them back. We cant forget that we are still fighting on Eorzean ground and not at the doors of Garlemald. In that future Eorzea was just able to slowly force the enemy to retreat further from the battlefield on Eorzea and that alone was enough for the black rose to being used. I think it just shows that Garlemald is not a unstoppable force they believed themselves to be and the alliance is made from several countries that are also mostly fighting on the grounds of their homeland. (And I would say that some of that recent saved countries would fight even harder) There is nothing in the story from Urianger that said that there was a civil war in Garlemald that helped the Alliance. They simply were able to turn around the battle slowly (and it would make sense that this happened because we and the scions were still there, seeing how we are a one-man-army ourself) but not so far that they defeated them or even were standing on the doorsteps of Garlemald.

[Lium]

3. He said that it was not enough because we would be having that light inside. And of course if the people dont change they could fall back into being stagnate which could introduce more Light. But he was quite happy when he thought that we will turn and become a Lightwarden because we would then finally finish what he began and what we stopped. Yes there is still light in the empy which will make it hard to survive for a longer time but at the same time the sky seems to be fine too. I think this is truly just us trying to resolve the aftermaths and make the land habitable again. I mean if Eden was the part where it would finally save the shard wouldnt it be bad that this conclusion is behind a raid quest? One would do the MSQ and somehow never truly save anything but going with Ryne and the others on a side adventure would suddenly solve the main problem? And again the exarch would have sent us all home when the problem is not solved at all?

I agree with you here. When I did the Eden series my thoughts were "this is essentially nation-building after a war." It's very important and will require a lot of hard work and dedication, and it's quite perilous, but the main threat has passed. This is the kind of stuff in movies that happen off-screen. Like after the rebels defeated the empire in Star Wars, the original trilogy was over. Rebuilding the Republic and dealing with the rest of the empire's forces and all of that happened in between films. It was told in comics, novels and video games. Same thing with Lord of the Rings after Sauron was defeated. The aftermath was left to the appendices.

That's kind of how I feel about Eden. It's important, but the main threat was actually Emet-Selch.