SHB BLM is the peak of this game's job design

[PyurBlue]

I don't see the problem with F3, but you could just apply element swapping properties to F2 and have no need to modify Flare at all.

[Archwizard]

you could just apply element swapping properties to F2 and have no need to modify Flare at all.

Also a possibility. I simply find that Flare having the ability to put us in AF3 already, the much smaller difference between it and F3, and the existence of Aspect Mastery, in addition to F2 being available at a substantially lower level, makes modifying Flare alone to require less of a leap/general buff.

I would also argue that the act of being able to get out one additional Flare, even weakened by UI3 (bearing in mind, so is F3), would probably still be a buff to AoE even with a small deduction on the initial target.

Plus I'm still an advocate for F2 to just upgrade into Flare at level 50. Same with B2 and Freeze.

[PyurBlue]

Also a possibility. I simply find that Flare having the ability to put us in AF3 already, the much smaller difference between it and F3, and the existence of Aspect Mastery, in addition to F2 being available at a substantially lower level, makes modifying Flare alone to require less of a leap/general buff.

I was thinking along the lines of including F2 into Aspect Mastery or something like that, it wouldn't change how F2 works at lower levels.

I would also argue that the act of being able to get out one additional Flare, even weakened by UI3 (bearing in mind, so is F3), would probably still be a buff to AoE even with a small deduction on the initial target.

I decided to just play with numbers. It turns out that Flare in UI can already beat F3.

F3 (UI) > Flare > Flare > Freeze is 200.6 PPS on 4 enemies, 441.2 on 10 enemies.

Flare (UI) > Flare > Freeze is 203.8 PPS on 4, 471.6 on 10

Interestingly F2 can still be a damage gain.

Flare (UI) > F2 > Flare > Freeze is 473.7 PPS on 10 enemies. At least if my math is right.

Plus I'm still an advocate for F2 to just upgrade into Flare at level 50. Same with B2 and Freeze.

While this might work above level 68, between that level and 50 it would mean the BLM AoE fire rotation is a single flare followed by waiting for MP. At least F2 casts give you a chance to proc thunder to get around the MP tick issue.

[Archwizard]

While this might work above level 68, between that level and 50 it would mean the BLM AoE fire rotation is a single flare followed by waiting for MP. At least F2 casts give you a chance to proc thunder to get around the MP tick issue.

Considering we already avoid F2 like the plague, I would like to see the math on a rotation of F3>Flare>TP>Freeze to cap (with generous sprinklings of T2/4) vs F3>F2 till near empty>Flare>TP>T2/4.

Though I feel like if your math shows a higher PPS value on using F2 as it currently is, there might be a flaw given the concensus is to simply avoid it.

[PyurBlue]

Considering we already avoid F2 like the plague, I would like to see the math on a rotation of F3>Flare>TP>Freeze to cap (with generous sprinklings of T2/4) vs F3>F2 till near empty>Flare>TP>T2/4.

Though I feel like if your math shows a higher PPS value on using F2 as it currently is, there might be a flaw given the concensus is to simply avoid it.

This is probably going to be my last post because of the forum post limit. F2 has always had some use, it just became increasingly niche with time. In SB F2 overtook Flare at something like 15 enemies because Flare's 78(?) potency minimum was below the 80 of F2 and F2 also had a faster cast time. F2 requires a large number of enemies to be worthwhile in Shadowbringers as well, which is why I only looked at the case with 10 enemies.

Intermediate level AoE prefers F2 because when you can only cast Flare once and have to wait for MP ticks, you overall PPS goes down, so you don't need as much PPS in a given cast to find a net increase in total PPS.

4 enemies, assuming instant MP ticks on transpose, I also don't know how many F2's you can actually cast, I just went with 3:

F3 = 240*.7/2.5 = 67.2
F2 = 80*4*1.8/3 = 192
F2 = 80*4*1.8/3 = 192
F2 = 80*4*1.8/3 = 192
Flare = (260 + 156*3)*1.8/4 = 327.6
Freeze = 100*4/2.5 = 160
Average = 188.5 PPS

F3 = 240*.7/2.5 = 67.2
Flare = (260 + 156*3)*1.8/4 = 327.6
Freeze = 100*4/2.5 = 160
Average = 185.0 PPS

Adding T2, I'm estimating that it procs for 50% of casts at 4 enemies. That's an effective PPS of 328 which increase the averages to 208.4 and 220.7 respectively.

[Acidblood]

This is probably going to be my last post because of the forum post limit. F2 has always had some use, it just became increasingly niche with time. In SB F2 overtook Flare at something like 15 enemies because Flare's 78(?) potency minimum was below the 80 of F2 and F2 also had a faster cast time. F2 requires a large number of enemies to be worthwhile in Shadowbringers as well, which is why I only looked at the case with 10 enemies.

Intermediate level AoE prefers F2 because when you can only cast Flare once and have to wait for MP ticks, you overall PPS goes down, so you don't need as much PPS in a given cast to find a net increase in total PPS.

4 enemies, assuming instant MP ticks on transpose, I also don't know how many F2's you can actually cast, I just went with 3:

F3 = 240*.7/2.5 = 168
F2 = 80*4*1.8/3 = 192
F2 = 80*4*1.8/3 = 192
F2 = 80*4*1.8/3 = 192
Flare = (260 + 156*3)*1.8/4 = 327.6
Freeze = 100*4/2.5 = 160
Average = 188.5 PPS

F3 = 240*.7/2.5 = 168
Flare = (260 + 156*3)*1.8/4 = 327.6
Freeze = 100*4/2.5 = 160
Average = 185.0 PPS

Adding T2, I'm estimating that it procs for 50% of casts at 4 enemies. That's an effective PPS of 328 which increase the averages to 208.4 and 220.7 respectively.

Maybe I'm missing something (edit: these calculations are rough), but:
(168 + 192 + 192 + 192 + 327.6 + 160) / 6 = 205.3
(168 + 327.6 + 160) / 3 = 218.5

I just took another look at the BLM guide which led me to the wiki on Umbral ice stacks and it mentioned that it will reduce the potency of a fire spell by 30% for 3 three stack of umbral ice... is that correct as of 5.0?

From the testing I have done the values of -30% (x0.7) for Fire spells in UI and +80% (x1.8) for Fire spells in AF3 appear to still be correct.

Also, I'm not sure how the math turns out but the issue with using Flare straight from UI is that Aspect Mastery does not apply... i.e. you will eat your Umbral Hearts and most of your MP for a Flare with -30% potency. Casting Fire III from UI costs nothing (except a GCD) and you can then cast 2 full strength Flares (at +80% potency), or 3 with Manafont.

Edit(2) Updated: Did some (more correct) math and the cross over point appears to be 8 enemies (though the benefit is as little as 0.4%)... for 10 enemies the benefit is about 1%, and it caps out around 3%.

Edit(3): If you are using Triplecast (or even Swiftcast); i.e. lowering the effective cast time of Flare in AF to the GCD; then you should always enter AF with F3.

[Kabooa]

Also, I'm not sure how the math turns out but the issue with using Flare straight from UI is that Aspect Mastery does not apply... i.e. you will eat your Umbral Hearts and most of your MP for a Flare with -30% potency. Casting Fire III from UI costs nothing (except a GCD) and you can then cast 2 full strength Flares (at +80% potency), or 3 with Manafont.

I did it earlier. The break even point (when both do the same potency per second) was 5.08 enemies. Before that, F3 Flare is "Better", after that, Cold Flare is "Better". However, when you extrapolate this out to 5, 10, 15, enemies, then factor in Foul / T4 and potential procs, the short answer is

Use either.