The chance of winning the 3 lines reward of Wondrous Tails is ridiculously low

[LalaRu]

...Feel free to correct me if the calculation is wrong...

I have to correct you:
After 7 signs, you have the option to shuffle until you get a pattern leading to three rows on next two signs.
So, the correct chance is the random placement of 2 signs on a pattern where first 7 signs are already placed good:
16 places, 7 used: 9 places left, it means you have 1 possibility over 9 * 8, so it is 1/72, that is about 1,4% of chance.

[Liam_Harper]

I'm fine with the 3 line rewards, but I got a 0 line streak 7 times in a row and stopped doing these entirely. The 1 and 2 line rewards very often aren't worth much either. I swim in tomes, the materia market has all but crashed and most of the minions are cheap. They've been using combat materia and tomes as a reward for too many things lately.

[Iscah]

I have to correct you:
After 7 signs, you have the option to shuffle until you get a pattern leading to three rows on next two signs.
So, the correct chance is the random placement of 2 signs on a pattern where first 7 signs are already placed good:
16 places, 7 used: 9 places left, it means you have 1 possibility over 9 * 8, so it is 1/72, that is about 1,4% of chance.

But what are your chances of getting the stickers shuffled into a useful configuration in the first place? And with a maximum of four chances (not counting extra chance points acquired later) to get it.

[LalaRu]

But what are your chances of getting the stickers shuffled into a useful configuration in the first place?

Dunno if placement is really random or more lenient, but I didn't got much trouble on shuffling to reach a good setup in about 5-6 tries on the average.

[Zeich]

For the 3 line thing, the reward for the 5 slot materia gear is is very underwhelming for the rarity. For crafting and gathering, because how caps work, the difference between them and normal gear is almost nonexistent and that tiny af difference makes no impact for crafting rotations.

This is not entirely true. While the numbers are closer together, you have to also consider the amount of effort that having open slots saves. As someone who has pentamelded at least three complete sets of crafting gear, I can tell you that if your RNG luck is abysmal, you can say goodbye to so much materia. With our current gear, we can slot 1-2 T6, overmeld 1 T6, and fill in the rest as needed. In a lot of cases, BiS will take a ton of T6 materia for both DoH and DoL. Overmelding an armor piece with two slots, our odds of overmeld are looking like 17%, 10%, and 7%. In other words, ~1/6, 1/10, and ~1/14. Not accounting for random luck or horrible dry streaks, we're looking at close to 30 or so overmelded materia per piece, with an average expectation of 6 of those being T6. Going by that, we're looking at about 30 T6 materia to just overmeld the first slot for all pieces, and they're not exactly cheap. Then you have to do the same with however many T5s you need. When it comes to T1-3 filler to get those last few points it's not so much, but having open slots so that you don't have to worry about overmelding failing saves you a ton of cash in the long run. It's less valuable for the combat gear, but crafting and gathering gear? I'd jump on getting one of those from a 3-line. So yeah, while the caps don't make a difference, the amount of money you throw away trying to get up to that level is vastly different, which is what makes them so valuable.

[Bacent]

*(Gives a wry smile at the sudden aggression)*

...Have we met?

Do you mean at the obvious assumption that you said 'notice how the RNG went wacky when it realized I was about to make a full three lines'? You're coming off as if you knew you were gonna win, when you obviously have no clue about if you will actually win or not. I'm only coming off as aggressive due to you coming off as someone who looks like they either thought they deserved three lines, or that you don't know how RNG/chance happens in MMO games, designed to make you play for a lot longer than a single player game.

[Hamada]

This is not entirely true. While the numbers are closer together, you have to also consider the amount of effort that having open slots saves. As someone who has pentamelded at least three complete sets of crafting gear, I can tell you that if your RNG luck is abysmal, you can say goodbye to so much materia. With our current gear, we can slot 1-2 T6, overmeld 1 T6, and fill in the rest as needed. In a lot of cases, BiS will take a ton of T6 materia for both DoH and DoL. Overmelding an armor piece with two slots, our odds of overmeld are looking like 17%, 10%, and 7%. In other words, ~1/6, 1/10, and ~1/14. Not accounting for random luck or horrible dry streaks, we're looking at close to 30 or so overmelded materia per piece, with an average expectation of 6 of those being T6. Going by that, we're looking at about 30 T6 materia to just overmeld the first slot for all pieces, and they're not exactly cheap. Then you have to do the same with however many T5s you need. When it comes to T1-3 filler to get those last few points it's not so much, but having open slots so that you don't have to worry about overmelding failing saves you a ton of cash in the long run. It's less valuable for the combat gear, but crafting and gathering gear? I'd jump on getting one of those from a 3-line. So yeah, while the caps don't make a difference, the amount of money you throw away trying to get up to that level is vastly different, which is what makes them so valuable.

Bis overmelding vs 3 line gear? it is wayyyyy cheaper to BiS meld.
Bis melding crafting and gathering gear does not give you much leeway on what to slot because how caps work. At the very most in some gear you can leave the last slot open for cp vs more control or something if you are THAT paranoid but the thing is, SB requirements are way easier then HW you do not even need that much in the first place.

So no you have no room 3 line wt gear saves anything, its all an illusion. None of this gear is that great and does not justify the raritiy, the high prices people sell them for is ONLY for the ohhh shinny rare factor that ends up being moot in 6 months, at most. So I really do not get why people try to argue the importance of this over-rated wt gear when it is outdated so quickly on top of things, and during when it is current, can't even outclass the competition (in regards of DoH/DoL, I have not really memorized what DoW/DoM really makes use out of something). The ONLY thing I can think of that really get value out of these is tanks, healers and brd. BRD it depends what the options are in other gear, all depends on what crit you can get from other options or if the gear itself is capped easy. Then ofc there is healers to penta crazy DH but I am not sure how viable that is to go that far and that amount over crit.

DoH and DoL 3 line gear is more useless then DoW/DoM gear is. well it depends how you approach it but usually with macros you want to cp cap. Lets take the body for an exmaple, since that has the most stat weight and most flexiblity in doing something else (like 5x craft VI but no one really does that since control is more valued) if you cp cap you get only 5 craftsmanship more out of the 3 line WT gear... because that is how the caps work. caps are very strict and does not leave much options for the WT gear to give a real benefit. If you go for absolute control/+cp cap, (the stats that matter most) the WT DoH body has ZERO benefit over the crafted counterpart. You can't really argue a cost melding point for that setup because craft VI is usually the cheapest VI, then your doing a control V, then Cp x (w/e happens to be cheaper, the 5th slot rate doesn't matter and usually buying inflated grade 1's is not smart, spaming grade 2s or 3s tend to be way cheaper for this)

With how predicable this game is, and the fact SB requirements where a lot easier then HW, it is not hard to figure out how to meld without needing to redo it. (like having to meet 3.4 requirements without knowing what they are before hand)

So the DoH/DoL 3 line wt gear are pretty worthless from a stat point of view because how caps work. Selling them off for a high price for being rare is another issue and not something I care about at all. Sure it is quick to do, not bad time investment to get something that high value, but farming over and over and over for second chances is not smart. You make more gil on average just taking what you get for those say 20 mins investing then do something else that is more reliable means of making gil.

So your last line is completely wrong, they are valuable for being rare, nothing more, they do not give a benefit stat wise as far for DoH/DoL (they are even weaker for DoL because not only because of the caps on gear but the hard caps nodes gives to stats, like you can never have more then 95% rate on the hardest nodes for base). That melding argument even with the worst luck you can picture, you are spending 1/10th of the gil in materia, then what you can sell/ buy the gear for.

[LalaRu]

I have to correct you:
After 7 signs, you have the option to shuffle until you get a pattern leading to three rows on next two signs.
So, the correct chance is the random placement of 2 signs on a pattern where first 7 signs are already placed good:
16 places, 7 used: 9 places left, it means you have 1 possibility over 9 * 8, so it is 1/72, that is about 1,4% of chance.

Need to add, the chance to get at least 1 row is 2/9, ~22%, in the case the startup pattern haven't already one (we have two holes to fill, each one completes at least one row)

[Sirkos]

oh look another thread moaning about not getting the best rewards for minimal effort -_-

Yeesh ><

just because you believe that getting barely anything from getting 0-1 lines is fine for little effort doesn't mean people who moan about it is wrong, so shut up and stop forcing your beliefs onto others

im pissed off about this because i only need 2 stickers to get 3 lines but then i failed just because i couldn't win a 2% chance and pretty much got nothing from this.

what's annoying is that its a weekly pure base on luck crap instead of being fair and equal, i probably never in my life will get 3 lines while selfish people like you probably won 3 lines 3 or more times.

i mean would you get a job in real like where you have 2% chance to get $1000 a week and 98% chance of getting $10? no one would get a crap job like that its not worth it.

i have a better chance of killing satan than getting 3 lines!

[Vickii]

Someone in my FC won it last week. You can shuffle into a place where you have 7/9 in a winning position before you start with the final two. Sometimes it can take a while but usually you’ll be able to get into a winning position in a few shuffles.

From there you need luck.