Shiver Emote : two YEARS of farming on average

[Blokeymon]

He is saying that's 2 years per person. Yes some people have it, but what percentage of the people that did Pagos got a drop? Out of how many drop boxes? Some people have it because it is tradable so someone else got the drop and sold it on the MB. If you got a few thousand people doing Pagos, of course some people are gonna get the drop.

But that's not how maths works. If it was, no-one would have it yet.

2 years is the purest absolute worst case scenario based on a set amount of play time and a set number of boxes.

Now this is where things get good.

Because the drops are based on RNG (aka, Luck) it could even be 10 years to drop the item, if RNGsus considers you an unbeliever. It could even be never.

But if RNGsus recognises you as one of his faithful flock, you could get it literally your first roll.

TLDR - you can't confirm when RNG will favour you.

[Iscah]

Hah, I love this.

"It takes two years to farm it".

Literally hasn't even been three months and people have it.

How does maths even work?

IF the "two years on average" estimate is correct, then yes, it is absolutely still within the realm of possibility that someone gets it on their first try.

It just means that at the other end of luck there might be people who need to try for four years, to even it out.

[Lastelli]

Emotes do not deserve this level of rarity.

Nothing does.

[Blokeymon]

IF the "two years on average" estimate is correct, then yes, it is absolutely still within the realm of possibility that someone gets it on their first try.

It just means that at the other end of luck there might be people who need to try for four years, to even it out.

I literally just said that above your post.

[Iscah]

Some napkin math adjust as you see fit:


Our friends of reddit opened 1729 cold warped lockboxes and found a 0.002 chance of getting the emote. [Notes 1 and 2]
For a 95% chance of getting the emote that's around 1500 lockboxes.
But lockboxes drop from every 3rd to 4th mob and with eight people in the group

that's 36 thousand mobs. Assuming everyone needs one.

At one minute a mob results in 600 hours.
Playing 2 hours a day , 5 days a week with a solid hour chaining (will you really get this
considering one has to form and fill a party , refill on drop outs, chase NMs?) so 120 weeks of doing nothing but Pagos.

"For a 95% chance of getting the emote that's around 1500 lockboxes."

Actually what the Reddit link says is that you will need an average of 1500 mobs per emote.

1 ÷ 0.002 = 500 lockboxes per emote

1-in-3 chance of mob mutation = 3 mobs per lockbox

(just going on what has been written as I haven't been in Pagos myself)


So reduce that number, and also put it in hours rather than years - because as much as the actual answer (200 hours, or even your original 600) is still a ridiculously large amount of time, giving it in years makes it sound like you'd need to play nonstop for that long.


I also suspect the drop rates might have been planned based on a lot more people participating than they actually got in the end.

I literally just said that above your post.

In a very roundabout way that failed to compute.

[Blokeymon]

[I]In a very roundabout way that failed to compute.

How can:

Because the drops are based on RNG (aka, Luck) it could even be 10 years to drop the item, if RNGsus considers you an unbeliever. It could even be never.

But if RNGsus recognises you as one of his faithful flock, you could get it literally your first roll.

...fail to compute? Or even be considered a "roundabout way"?! It literally says that.

[Iscah]

How can (quote) ...fail to compute? Or even be considered a "roundabout way"?! It literally says that.

In amongst the fluff about RNGesus, and after you'd said several things that indicated you didn't know the maths you were talking about.

Firstly the earlier post I responded to, when you asked how anyone can have the emote yet if it takes two years (answer: some will have better luck).

Secondly dismissing Thamorian's post as incorrect, when she's got it right - even if it takes two years on average, some people (with good luck or lots of money) will have it now. You said that by this logic, nobody should have it yet. And then go on to explain the exact same thing she said already.

Thirdly, saying two years was a "worst case scenario" - which it isn't; it's the average. By definition, halfway between the best possible luck and close-to-worst possible luck. (Actual-worst being undefinable because it's impossible to put an finite number to how many fails you'll have.)


Why ridicule the maths in one post, then show that you know the answer in another?

[Thamorian]

But that's not how maths works. If it was, no-one would have it yet.

2 years is the purest absolute worst case scenario based on a set amount of play time and a set number of boxes.

Now this is where things get good.

Because the drops are based on RNG (aka, Luck) it could even be 10 years to drop the item, if RNGsus considers you an unbeliever. It could even be never.

But if RNGsus recognises you as one of his faithful flock, you could get it literally your first roll.

TLDR - you can't confirm when RNG will favour you.

Let me guess, you had a very hard time with grade school math? You are having a hard time understanding the concept of what an average is.

Let's put it like this. If you have to flip a coin for it to land heads 10 times, that has a 1/1024 chance of happening. If you do it by yourself, let's say it takes 4 hours on average for it to happen once.

If 10 people try and get 10 head coin flips in a row, over many successful attempts, it takes on average 4 hours to get 10 head flips.

1st persons attempt took 5 hours to get 10 heads in a row
2nd persons attempt took 1 hour
3rd persons attempt took 6 hours
4th person 4 hours
5th person 3 hours
6th person 3 hours
7th person 8 hours
8th person 2 hours
9th person 3 hours
10 person 5 hours

Shortest attempt took 1 hour, longest took 8 hours.
Between the 10 people, it took 40 hours combined. 40 hours divided by 10 attempts is an average of 4 hours per an attempt.

Now stretch this to something rarer or slower to do. Some people may get the item pretty fast. Some people may never see the item with the same amount of work. If it takes on average 1000 hours to get the drop and there are 100,000 people working on getting an item, then by averages, just because someone gets the item within 10 hours of work does not mean it won't take someone else takes 2000 hours of work to get the item or that most people will be around 1000 hours to get the item, give or take a couple hundred hours.

[CassandraJean]

i keep hoping to see a patch where they say they've added the emote to the regular Pagos lockboxes (the ones you get from NM). Even if it's a low chance of getting them, it would be very nice. Especially now that Pyros is out.

[SenorPatty]

10 seconds buying it off the marketboard.

Plus all that useless gil just sitting in our pockets.


Unless you're in the real estate business of never-ending deco.


Unless you're an omni-crafter/gatherer who just makes their own deco. Then you're sitting with useless gil again.