The coming Garlean invasion

[Bright-Flower]

He forbade it yes, until someone reminded him that he is a puppet and must do what he is told, so that invasion is coming.
Varis did try to change the course of the empire by sponsoring the populares, but someone saw to end that before it could happen

Also before ppl forgets. The garleans DO believe that they are saving the world, the difference between populares and optimates is how they want to rule. Both sides still want to conquer and educate the ppl of the world, they but differ in how, but at the end of the day for both of them non garleans or honorary garleans are savages and don't mistake that

I don't think Varis is going to just quietly go along with what Solus wants.

[Cilia]

This is a very complex situation.

On the one hand, the Eorzeans and Othardians are right to suspect that Garlemald is preparing to launch an assault on one of them (in this case Ala Mhigo). They know they can't beat Garlemald in a straight-out fight, and they also know an Ascian is parading about in Zenos' skin. Therefore the most logical course of action would be to destabilize Garlemald in order to forestall that assault by, ironically, spreading the truth. As far as I am aware nobody has designs to launch a counter-assault and conquer Garlemald after (if) this is accomplished. This will cause much strife in Garlemald and could backfire spectacularly... but if the country is to be free of Ascian manipulation, the truth needs to be let out - down to the core of its founding philosophy being nothing more than a bunch of meaningless lies. Even if that shakes it to its foundations. Even if that deposes the current ruler, or at least forces him to give up his ambitions. Ishgard weathered a similar storm - there's no reason Garlemald can't do the same.

On the other... the current ruler, whatever he may or may not have been before, has been reduced to little more than a puppet. The Garlean people (and even the protagonists themselves) are ignorant of how deep the Ascian corruption in Garlemald runs. Varis' hands are tied, and his people are primed for a war he may or may not want thanks to yet another lie. The ignorance of the Garlean people make this a tragic way to go, but there's no other choice - until their strings are cut there's nothing questionable about fighting the puppet(s) if they act aggressively since they serve the true enemy (wittingly or otherwise). Whatever the Garlean people do with the information given to them (which is the truth, mind)... well, that's on them.

We don't know how Varis intends to resist Ascian manipulation (though it's clear he does), but that doesn't mean the protagonists should do nothing. Letting the truth out - what we know of it, at any rate - is the best idea anyone has at the moment, so...

[Theodric]

A meeting between Varis and Alphinaud is likely the key. I always thought it was a little strange that the pair had an in-depth conversation back in Heavensward. At the time it felt a little out of place - because shortly afterwards the Emperor of Garlemald returned to being a background figure.

Note how their conversation revolved around the methods of Garlemald and their shared goal. Now that Varis is aware of the truth of his homeland's founding and has lost both his heir and best friend, I suspect he will be willing to offer what aid he can to the Warrior of Light. At which point, negotiations for a mutually beneficial future for Garlemald can begin.

With that said, it isn't only Garlemald that needs to reform. The Eorzean Alliance needs to learn how to adapt and operate better on the world stage as well - especially since it has started embracing certain imperialistic tendencies itself. After all, once the situation with Garlemald is brought to a close we'll likely go somewhere else. Sharlayan, perhaps - and whatever region we explore will also have its own set of problems that are likely more nuanced than the protagonists initially assume. As with Ishgard's bitter struggle, there's two sides that need to be brought together rather than decimated or pushed away.

Thus, I conclude that we're almost certainly going to get an 'Ivalice' story with the upcoming expansion. Something heavily inspired by Final Fantasy Tactics and Final Fantasy XII in particular. Not all plot elements will be the same, since FFXIV likes to put its own twists on things...but it isn't going to be a conflict story along the lines of what a certain rival MMO offers.

[ObsidianFire]

I still think a huge hurdle the Eorzeans need to overcome is if Garlemald respects them or not. It really doesn't matter if there's an invasion or Garlemald and the Eorzean Alliance become allies. So long as Garlemald doesn't respect Eorzea just because they aren't Garlean, there's going to be a lot of tension between them. While I don't doubt Varis can see that he needs allies, I do question whether he can humble himself enough to admit that when it comes to knowing how Ascian manipulations tend to go, the Eorzean Alliance, particularly the Scions, have a better idea of how to deal with it then he does. The gist of Varis' conversation with Alphinaud was that Alphinaud is way too young to know what he's doing when it comes to international diplomacy. Now, we, the players, the WoL in-game, and the Eorzean Alliance know that's not true. But I can see Varis writing Alphinaud off just because of his age and apparent lack of experience compared to Varis.

This a contrast to how the WoL gained Gaius and Regula's respect. Both of them do believe in the "strong rules the weak" mentality to the point that once we proved that we were both (a) right about Ultima Weapon/the Warring Triad and (b) stronger then them, they respected us. By the end, neither of them had problems with us doing what we had initially planned to do. In fact, they agreed with us and all but told us to finish what we had planned to do. And the one that did survive is now doing (or at least attempting) to do our job for us.

Long story short, I have a hard time seeing Varis respect us until he actually gets into a fight with us over something. How long will that take for the story to get there? I don't know...

[Theodric]

Varis' commentary during his conversation with Alphinaud involved compliments, rather than mockery. It's worth noting that the conversation was the only time in which we've seen him smile. Given that he wants to ensure that his people have a place in Hydaelyn and desires to put an end to the Eikon/Ascian threat it's more likely than not that he'll be open to working with the Warrior of Light. His best friend's dying words implied as much - and he has almost certainly received Regula's reports and commentary from those who survived the events of Azys Lla.

It's also worth noting that Pureblood Garleans are described as being pragmatic by their very nature. Once the Ascian meddling is put to an end, they'll likely be more open to more cordial relations with the outside world - though, again, that is something that works both ways. I suspect we'll get a similar ending to FFXII - where the Empire of that game wasn't weakened or disbanded. It simply reformed and embraced more peaceful relations. By the end of the game, more than one of the protagonists end up serving the Empire directly. FFXIV is no stranger to embracing the Ivalice aesthetics and nuances, so it's likely we'll get something along those lines.

[Balipu]

I don't think Varis is going to just quietly go along with what Solus wants.

And I'm sure the tag tem of Solus and Elidibus will just simply shrug and say 'okay'.

Oh wait. No. They will probably destroy everything he hold dear before he goes along with the plan. If still no they will just murder him and give his corpse to another Ascian.

[Theodric]

If Thancred can miraculously be rescued from Lahabrea's direct possession then I'm sure the story could move in a direction where Varis is freed from the manipulative clutches of scheming Ascians.

It's reasonable to assume that Varis is due to meet up with Alphinaud on at least one more occasion based on their prior conversation and the direction Alphinaud is headed in.

Perhaps Varis will find himself overthrown and forced into exile, or imprisoned. There's a lot of interesting things that could be done with him - and previous titles have explored similar themes, so it's safe to assume that FFXIV isn't going to shy away from them.

[Balipu]

If Thancred can miraculously be rescued from Lahabrea's direct possession then I'm sure the story could move in a direction where Varis is freed from the manipulative clutches of scheming Ascians.

Don't forget Krile who wasn't affected too negatively by Garlean captivity. Like I said in the other thread, the goal is obviously to give Varis actual control. But if Solus and Elidibus want an invasion in 4.5 or 5.0 it will happen. We won't free Varis THAT soon.

[NoblePigeon]

It would seem I have over-played my sarcasm and my tongue in cheek jests regarding a war with the Empire. Allow me to be clear on two short items:
-snip-

Some people are better at detecting sarcasm in typed words than others. I unfortunately am not one of them, so apologies!

Garlemald is actually my favorite faction in the game because of a lot of its themes appeal to me. Honestly I would very much like for the FATE system to be overhauled for stuff like that. Metaevents that affect the whole map, a la Guild Wars 2. That would require a overhaul of EVERYTHING though, which I don't see them doing anytime soon, sadly.

Gaius most definitely was a brilliant strategist, but as he ended up consorting with Ascians to mess around with a weapon barely understood, to use a WMD to hold the entire continent hostage? There were most definitely flaws in his thinking. Alongside the naive belief that Eorzeans would be okay with being ruled by the same nation that threw an entire Moon down on them and was directly responsible for allowing beast tribes to summon primals again (that Gaius and some others opposed the project is hardly relevant to those people). His plan would have almost worked too, at least in making the leaders surrender, but those pesky Scions urged them to not put up with Gaius's nonsense and that they have a solution.

I'd be okay for there being a full scale war, and having the Scions try to maneuver into the heart of Garlemald to try putting an end to it and stem it at its source. Whether Varis is cooperative or not will be the big question mark; maybe he sends out an invasion force because of the pressure the Ascians are putting on him. "Do this or we'll just turn you into free real estate for another Ascian." But I'd also be okay if there was only the threat of total war as well, something that needs to be defused with the help of those scheming against the throne or the ruling regime in general. It was noted that there's definitely factions outside the Populares that oppose the current leadership, some likely for less altruistic reasons than the Populares.

He forbade it yes, until someone reminded him that he is a puppet and must do what he is told, so that invasion is coming.
Varis did try to change the course of the empire by sponsoring the populares, but someone saw to end that before it could happen

Also before ppl forgets. The garleans DO believe that they are saving the world, the difference between populares and optimates is how they want to rule. Both sides still want to conquer and educate the ppl of the world, they but differ in how, but at the end of the day for both of them non garleans or honorary garleans are savages and don't mistake that

Actually, the Populares want to improve the lives of those in the provinces, Garlean or otherwise. Asahi was a scumbag, but he likely wouldn't lie w hen he explained this to the WoL. And if Maxima is any indication, they'll probably shift their position on Imperial expansion quickly once the truths about the Burn is revealed and be made aware of how awful and brutal the Empire was being in places like Dalmasca, Doma and Ala Mhigo.

[Remedi]

I don't think Varis is going to just quietly go along with what Solus wants.

Idd he won't because the plot demands our presence, but realistically he can't do a thing. Solus has already plan B at ready if Varis won't comply.

Actually, the Populares want to improve the lives of those in the provinces, Garlean or otherwise. Asahi was a scumbag, but he likely wouldn't lie w hen he explained this to the WoL. And if Maxima is any indication, they'll probably shift their position on Imperial expansion quickly once the truths about the Burn is revealed and be made aware of how awful and brutal the Empire was being in places like Dalmasca, Doma and Ala Mhigo.

They do yes, but still as provinces under Garlemand even Totally-not-Gaius doesn't want for the empire to lose more provinces. The Garleans in the prima vista too believe of the rigtheousness of the crusade of the empire as savior of the lesser races despite being advocates for non violence.
Essentially what they want is a political conquest, not with war, but with politics and agreement, it doesn't make them less imperialist or expansionist it's only different