The coming Garlean invasion

[Theodric]

A meeting between Varis and Alphinaud is likely the key. I always thought it was a little strange that the pair had an in-depth conversation back in Heavensward. At the time it felt a little out of place - because shortly afterwards the Emperor of Garlemald returned to being a background figure.

Note how their conversation revolved around the methods of Garlemald and their shared goal. Now that Varis is aware of the truth of his homeland's founding and has lost both his heir and best friend, I suspect he will be willing to offer what aid he can to the Warrior of Light. At which point, negotiations for a mutually beneficial future for Garlemald can begin.

With that said, it isn't only Garlemald that needs to reform. The Eorzean Alliance needs to learn how to adapt and operate better on the world stage as well - especially since it has started embracing certain imperialistic tendencies itself. After all, once the situation with Garlemald is brought to a close we'll likely go somewhere else. Sharlayan, perhaps - and whatever region we explore will also have its own set of problems that are likely more nuanced than the protagonists initially assume. As with Ishgard's bitter struggle, there's two sides that need to be brought together rather than decimated or pushed away.

Thus, I conclude that we're almost certainly going to get an 'Ivalice' story with the upcoming expansion. Something heavily inspired by Final Fantasy Tactics and Final Fantasy XII in particular. Not all plot elements will be the same, since FFXIV likes to put its own twists on things...but it isn't going to be a conflict story along the lines of what a certain rival MMO offers.

[ObsidianFire]

I still think a huge hurdle the Eorzeans need to overcome is if Garlemald respects them or not. It really doesn't matter if there's an invasion or Garlemald and the Eorzean Alliance become allies. So long as Garlemald doesn't respect Eorzea just because they aren't Garlean, there's going to be a lot of tension between them. While I don't doubt Varis can see that he needs allies, I do question whether he can humble himself enough to admit that when it comes to knowing how Ascian manipulations tend to go, the Eorzean Alliance, particularly the Scions, have a better idea of how to deal with it then he does. The gist of Varis' conversation with Alphinaud was that Alphinaud is way too young to know what he's doing when it comes to international diplomacy. Now, we, the players, the WoL in-game, and the Eorzean Alliance know that's not true. But I can see Varis writing Alphinaud off just because of his age and apparent lack of experience compared to Varis.

This a contrast to how the WoL gained Gaius and Regula's respect. Both of them do believe in the "strong rules the weak" mentality to the point that once we proved that we were both (a) right about Ultima Weapon/the Warring Triad and (b) stronger then them, they respected us. By the end, neither of them had problems with us doing what we had initially planned to do. In fact, they agreed with us and all but told us to finish what we had planned to do. And the one that did survive is now doing (or at least attempting) to do our job for us.

Long story short, I have a hard time seeing Varis respect us until he actually gets into a fight with us over something. How long will that take for the story to get there? I don't know...

[Theodric]

Varis' commentary during his conversation with Alphinaud involved compliments, rather than mockery. It's worth noting that the conversation was the only time in which we've seen him smile. Given that he wants to ensure that his people have a place in Hydaelyn and desires to put an end to the Eikon/Ascian threat it's more likely than not that he'll be open to working with the Warrior of Light. His best friend's dying words implied as much - and he has almost certainly received Regula's reports and commentary from those who survived the events of Azys Lla.

It's also worth noting that Pureblood Garleans are described as being pragmatic by their very nature. Once the Ascian meddling is put to an end, they'll likely be more open to more cordial relations with the outside world - though, again, that is something that works both ways. I suspect we'll get a similar ending to FFXII - where the Empire of that game wasn't weakened or disbanded. It simply reformed and embraced more peaceful relations. By the end of the game, more than one of the protagonists end up serving the Empire directly. FFXIV is no stranger to embracing the Ivalice aesthetics and nuances, so it's likely we'll get something along those lines.

[Theodric]

If Thancred can miraculously be rescued from Lahabrea's direct possession then I'm sure the story could move in a direction where Varis is freed from the manipulative clutches of scheming Ascians.

It's reasonable to assume that Varis is due to meet up with Alphinaud on at least one more occasion based on their prior conversation and the direction Alphinaud is headed in.

Perhaps Varis will find himself overthrown and forced into exile, or imprisoned. There's a lot of interesting things that could be done with him - and previous titles have explored similar themes, so it's safe to assume that FFXIV isn't going to shy away from them.

[Balipu]

If Thancred can miraculously be rescued from Lahabrea's direct possession then I'm sure the story could move in a direction where Varis is freed from the manipulative clutches of scheming Ascians.

Don't forget Krile who wasn't affected too negatively by Garlean captivity. Like I said in the other thread, the goal is obviously to give Varis actual control. But if Solus and Elidibus want an invasion in 4.5 or 5.0 it will happen. We won't free Varis THAT soon.

[MicahZerrshia]

HOW IN THE WORLD IS THE EORZEAN ALLIANCE GOING TO EVEN STAND A CHANCE???

The same way superheroes always win and why story telling is so predictable and boring that things like GoT are exciting.

Newly discovered powers and a good ol fashioned Deus ex Machina.

We may loose a scion here or there but no death will be meaningless or unheroic in some way. Each death will be a catalyst for something, unlock a "new power" in us to help defeat the flavor of the week bad guy or be sacrificial for the good of mankind. Which is also why I knew Thancred wasn't dead when he fell over.

[Theodric]

Varis' claim to the throne was stronger than Titus' due to Varis having an heir in the form of Zenos. Titus' forces launched an assassination attempt on Zenos - which failed - as confirmed in Yotsuyu's short story. So if Titus was willing to resort to assassination it doesn't seem like he was the perfect figure some suspected he would be. Furthermore, even if he had succeeded and managed to take out Varis as well...he would have found himself in the same position as Varis. Namely at the mercy of at least two powerful Ascians.

It's also not the Populares that are the first group of Garleans loyal to their homeland to work alongside the Warrior of Light and put it on the 'right track' - Regula van Hydrus and the remnants of his forces are the first. It was a brief, temporary alliance but a promising one nonetheless. Especially given Regula's close relationship with the Emperor.

I'd also point out that the Populares and Optimates are based on real world factions...and neither of them were exactly pure and virtuous. They desired control and power above all else, at times refusing to compromise with the other.

The Eorzean Alliance's recent imperialistic tendencies on the world stage are also going to be a problem moving forward. After all, Eorzea has already shown a willingness to sabotage Hingashi by trying to get around Kugane's trade tariffs. In short, it is more than willing to engage in trade wars. Given that Hingashi has suffered its own troubles in the form of strife and conflict, it's a case of outright cruelty on Eorzea's part.

[NoblePigeon]

Varis' claim to the throne was stronger than Titus' due to Varis having an heir in the form of Zenos. Titus' forces launched an assassination attempt on Zenos - which failed - as confirmed in Yotsuyu's short story. So if Titus was willing to resort to assassination it doesn't seem like he was the perfect figure some suspected he would be. Furthermore, even if he had succeeded and managed to take out Varis as well...he would have found himself in the same position as Varis. Namely at the mercy of at least two powerful Ascians.

It's also not the Populares that are the first group of Garleans loyal to their homeland to work alongside the Warrior of Light and put it on the 'right track' - Regula van Hydrus and the remnants of his forces are the first. It was a brief, temporary alliance but a promising one nonetheless. Especially given Regula's close relationship with the Emperor.

I'd also point out that the Populares and Optimates are based on real world factions...and neither of them were exactly pure and virtuous. They desired control and power above all else, at times refusing to compromise with the other.

I have no doubt that the Populares and Titus have some skeletons in the closet, but they are still the only faction that we have not become hostile to, where an actual alliance could potentially be exploited, rather than an alliance of necessity as it was for Regula.

The Eorzean Alliance's recent imperialistic tendencies on the world stage are also going to be a problem moving forward. After all, Eorzea has already shown a willingness to sabotage Hingashi by trying to get around Kugane's trade tariffs. In short, it is more than willing to engage in trade wars. Given that Hingashi has suffered its own troubles in the form of strife and conflict, it's a case of outright cruelty on Eorzea's part.

...What? Are we really going to go back to the whole "but look at Eorzea it's just as bad" deal?

[Cilia]

I wasn't even aware of the Eorzeans trying to get around Hingan tariffs - is it linked to the Eureka or Namazu quests? (I've given up on the former and don't have a DoH / DoL class high enough to do the latter.)

Furthermore if it's the act of Eorzean companies (the East Aldenard Trading Company is the only known Eorzean operation that far east), that's a very different issue than the Eorzean government sponsoring or actively attempting to evade Hingan tariffs.

Red herring either way. Stop digressing, please.

[Theodric]

I wasn't even aware of the Eorzeans trying to get around Hingan tariffs - is it linked to the Eureka or Namazu quests? (I've given up on the former and don't have a DoH / DoL class high enough to do the latter.)

Furthermore if it's the act of Eorzean companies (the East Aldenard Trading Company is the only known Eorzean operation that far east), that's a very different issue than the Eorzean government sponsoring or actively attempting to evade Hingan tariffs.

Red herring either way. Stop digressing, please.

It's linked to the Eureka quest chain. It happens very early on - during the unlock quest for Anemos. I also firmly disagree with the idea that Eorzea as a whole cannot be blamed for what individual companies are doing, especially when at least one of them has immense control over Ul'dah, one of the founding nations of the Eorzean Alliance.

I wouldn't call it a red herring. It's a part of the bigger picture - the Warrior of Light's immense power is being exploited for the sake of greedy opportunists and the expense of a foreign nation that has done absolutely nothing to harm Eorzea.

I'm actually surprised it isn't receiving more condemnation around these parts...though I suppose I should temper my expectations given that there is often immense bias at play when it comes to Eorzea's sins.

I'm a huge FFXII fan (I still stubbornly keep declaring that Basch had the best ending for me)... and as such, the moment I saw the art direction and cultural themes for the Empire, I was immediately fascinated.

I'm in the same boat. It's always great to encounter another Ivalice fan. The similarities between FFXIV and FFXII are actually what led me to be hooked in the first place...and they are what keep me invested as the story moves forward. I'd honestly suggest that those who haven't played FFXII yet invest in doing so if they can. It would, perhaps, aid in understanding FFXIV's delightful nuances.