Quote Originally Posted by polyphonica View Post
I doubt it's that dire. By the time 4.5 comes around, they'll have Fanfest and announce the next expansion. This will start bringing people back who took a break so they can catch up on before 5.0 hits. And even if 5.0 ends up following the exact same pattern to the letter, it'll still sell well as if it were a single-player game -- people will come back, buy the expansion, sub for a few months, and then take a break again until 5.5 in prep for 6.0. That itself is a large and valuable market for this game.
I doubt that SE’s goal is to have players basically treat this MMO like a single-player game, where they purchase an expansion, sub for a month or two, and then stay unsubbed for nearly 2 years. Or purchase an expansion, but only play during free login periods.

In the meantime, there are still enough people who don't mind the pattern to keep the game afloat.
It’s been a rare occurrence that I’ve met someone who isn’t fed up with the stale formula for patches and expansions - and they’re usually newer players or people that rarely play. Stale formulas aren’t good for player retention.

In the end, as much as people complain about the familiar pattern, this is SE's most financially-successful MMORPG by far.
Eventually all MMOs can be branded as “financially-successful” if they live long enough. That doesn’t mean that the stale formula is okay.

At this point, it can afford to play it safe until it rides into the sunset, if that's its fate.
No, it really cannot. Because stale formulas are not good for player retention.