[RDM Suggestion] AoE Attack Phase

[Mhaeric]

Scatter 3|3 + Veraero 11|0 + Scatter 3|3 + Verthunder 0|11 yields 17|17 mana.

Scatter spam is 3|3 + 3(0.75(3|3) + 0.25(8|8)), with an expected yield of 15.75 | 15.75, a minimum of 12|12 and a max of 27|27.

Alternating spells yields 5|5 more than the minimum, but only 1.25|1.25 more than expected.
The best use of alternating spells is to keep a stronger mob even with the rest of the group; not necessarily to generate more mana.

You left out Enhanced Scatter in your first one so it's a 75% chance to get 17|17 and 25% chance to get 22|22 for an expected average result over time of 18.25 for 4 GCD. Your math on the second is wrong too, I think, and its expected average result is a lot less since you won't always get 3 chances at the proc. I.e. if you proc then your next one is guaranteed not to proc. The max at any rate is 22|22 not 27|27 since you have to at best alternate Scatter with Enhanced Scatter. I'd have to sit down and calculate it out a bit more, but don't have time atm since I'm on the way out the door to work. Either way, even in the short term it's always better to use the alternating single target one. On 3 mobs anyway. Once you get more than 3 then the potency output increase outweighs any balance discussion.

[Rongway]

You left out Enhanced Scatter in your first one so it's a 75% chance to get 17|17 and 25% chance to get 22|22 for an expected average result over time of 18.25 for 4 GCD.

Oh! You're right, I missed that one. Previous post has been updated with better maths. Thanks.

Your math on the second is wrong too, I think, and its expected average result is a lot less since you won't always get 3 chances at the proc. I.e. if you proc then your next one is guaranteed not to proc.

No, Enhanced Scatter still has the same 25% chance to proc another Enhanced Scatter. You can have an indefinitely long string of Enhanced Scatters.

[Kabooa]

Oh! You're right, I missed that one.


No, Enhanced Scatter still has the same 25% chance to proc another Enhanced Scatter. You can have an indefinitely long string of Enhanced Scatters.

Can confirm.

Scatter strings are the jackpot. nothing like getting 32/32 in 4 gcds.

[Mhaeric]

Can confirm.

Scatter strings are the jackpot. nothing like getting 32/32 in 4 gcds.

No, Enhanced Scatter still has the same 25% chance to proc another Enhanced Scatter. You can have an indefinitely long string of Enhanced Scatters.

Huh, I've never noticed that. I just assumed that Enhanced Scatter worked like the Enchanted melee spells where they replaced the base version entirely, and never looked closer. It does indeed potentially chain the procs, although from my brief testing it's not very common. E.g. It's only a 1.6% probability to chain it three times in a row.

As for the average values, here's the math broken down a bit more distinctly:

Starting with no procs, probability of balance level after 4 GCDs worth of Scatter+verspell alternating:
25% - 22|22 balance
75% - 17|17 balance

Starting with no procs, probability of balance level after 4 GCD worth of Scatter only spam:
1.6% - 27|27 balance
14.1% - 22|22 balance
42.2% - 17|17 balance
42.2% - 12|12 balance

The scatter spam while having the potential to produce more mana is far more likely to produce less when alternating it with a verspell, even only having a 15.5% chance of getting >=22|22 compared to the 25% chance of single target weaving. And it comes with the trade off of a hefty 42.2% probability of only getting 12|12 balance. In the long term this all evens out somewhat, but given the short duration of fights, it's still more advantageous to take advantage of the more stable numbers produced by the single target weaving. I.e. you won't ever get the rare 27|27 result, but you're also not going to get the far more likely 12|12 result either.

As for the average results of 15.75 and 18.25 over time, that's an ~15% increase in balance built over time, which is not insignificant, particularly if you account for manafication which will boost that to an ~30% difference. That's essentially getting to your melee burst 15-30% faster.

As for the rotation as a whole, which is what this thread was originally about. I'm happy with the way it is now. It fits with the theme of RDM being a simpler gameplay style, yet is not as simple as some make it out to be. I can see in the next expansion them adding in an AoE specific verfinisher spell, but for now it's in a good spot. Something like for every Enchanted Moulinet you use you build a stack of a 30s duration buff up to 3 stacks and the AoE verfinisher can only be cast with at least one stack and the potency is based on the number of stacks you have.