Think the game will succeed?

[Elexia]

depends on your idea of success. will it have people playing it yes... will it be popular...no. anyone who has ever played a good mmo, not made by SE

Anyone who has played a good MMO will know that they're all essentially the same and people are always looking for something new to play.

down the shenmue series path and it is not looking good

And what exactly is wrong with Shenmue path? Both games were great.