The chance of winning the 3 lines reward of Wondrous Tails is ridiculously low

[Fynlar]

And again, NO line last week, i wasnt alone...
Many got NO line both weeks!

I begin to wonder how many "First Timers" there are on your server...

If you're not getting even one line, you aren't shuffling enough.

The DF has *loads* of first timers. Not even just for the new content; mentor roulette in particular tends to churn out a bunch of runs with first timers. I get so many second chance points that I have overflowed without realizing it several times already in just two weeks, and on each of the two weeks so far I ran Sastasha multiple times just to get my book done (by retrying the low level dungeon duty over and over because I needed *something* to spend my second chances on).

Shuffling one line with 7 seals is not that hard at all (and many times if you get one line, you will also have a 3 out of 4 setup for a second line). Shuffling a 2 line setup (which needs all 7 of the available seals at that point) or a setup that allows for a possible 3-line is rather tougher and will probably take many more shuffles.

I shuffled until I got a "one and three quarters" setup on both weeks. It didn't take very long for either week. The first week I got a 2nd line with my 8th seal; the second week I did end up with just that one line. Still though, I'm very satisfied with my results. I don't particularly care to try for 3 lines.

[BristolRuss]

I was lucky and managed to get 3 lines last week. Trying to sell the chest piece has been difficult though, as 7 other people are also trying to sell it. It's gone from 18m to under 7m within a day.

[randysquirrel]

got my new book yesterday. quickly completed 7 duties in a couple of hours.
shuffled 4 times, and the 4th shuffle gave me one diagonal line, and the others in a position where I could get three lines if I got my last two stickers placed right.
completed two more duties, and uncovered the last two, neither of which were where I needed them unfortunately

so I finish with one line, which is good enough for two V materias. can't complain

[Yukiko]

snip

Sure, it works for you, so it must work for everyone...
You show no understanding of pure RNG.
I did not say "many" for no reason... should i make a name list?
Even when giving you 1000 names you would just say: "They make it wrong, for me it worked both weeks"

Edit: The funny part is -> While there are those who have bad RNG luck there are others who forgot to give the book back (with 2 lines)

[Blood-Aki]

The funny part is you won't ever need that gear, unless to make bank off snowflakes syndrome people. with the MB, but it being a low chance is perfectly fine.

[Seidaku]

Has anyone bothered to try tracking which duties give which stickers to see if there is any correlation?

[Fynlar]

Sure, it works for you, so it must work for everyone...
You show no understanding of pure RNG.

I've played MMOs for nearly 15 years; trust me, I have a good understanding of RNG.

If you randomize 7 seals on a 4x4 grid, it should not take you very many iterations to get one line. It is not that rare of an occurrence.

If you got zero lines in both weeks I think it's fair to say you probably aren't trying very hard to get those second chance points. Which is fine if you can't be assed with it, but at least own up to that fact instead of just saying the RNG hates you. They've given us a system that allows us to twist that RNG quite a bit toward our favor, at least with regard to getting 1-2 lines. 3 lines, the odds are still stacked heavily against us, even if you do shuffle your way to a setup that allows a chance at 3 lines, but THAT would take such a high amount of shuffles on average that it would be unfair to expect it of anyone.

[Kaurie]

oh look another thread moaning about not getting the best rewards for minimal effort -_-

Yeesh ><

... best? It's 250 gear, which is being handed out like candy. Yes, you can overmeld for an additional 3 slots, but big woop. Secondary stats are so weak, that will make such a small dent in your DPS, and you'll replace it instantly with 260+ gear.

That's not actually hard given how absurdly overgeared we are now. I'll just collect some friends and murder him five minutes, tops. We also do not know if syncing will be required. If it isn't, Titan dies in the blink of an eye.

And no it wouldn't. People are still buying Ironworks en masse now. ilvl 250 will be fairly relevant for several weeks as ilvl 260 will be limited to weekly drops. If Wondrous Tails offered guaranteed slots, people would wait for it before progression-- world first raiders notwithstanding. And again, no. You don't ever need to overmeld grade V materia. I can reach nearly 1,000 on both Craft and Control without overmelding either tool or the body piece at all. Grade V costs a ton because it's tedious and RNG reliant to acquire.

I do, however, agree the percentage is silly. 1-5% makes more sense; little higher if the guaranteed slots are also random. Currently, this is 0.20%

He claimed it wasn't faceroll, that doesn't mean it is really hard.

I was selling it with my fc during the i90 days. Why do you make it sound like it be would impossible now that we're overgeared, even with level sync?

I love that you are equating "Not faceroll" with "impossible"

[Waffles298]

this weeks Wondorous Tails has been extremely cruel to me. spent almost the entire week farming second chance points and shuffling, still have yet to get even 1 gauranteed line.

[Yukiko]

this weeks Wondorous Tails has been extremely cruel to me. spent almost the entire week farming second chance points and shuffling, still have yet to get even 1 gauranteed line.

same, will be 3rd week with NO line!

@Fynlar: RNG from FFXIV can not be compared with many other MMOs because FFXIV ignores "bad luck". While in other MMOs you have a backup net for bad bias results the FFXIV team is proud to have "pure" RNG. Just if you dont know: That backup net is sometimes invisible (Example: token system (=visible) while failure counter (=invisible) or luck stat (=half visible) directly influence the formula)