Craftsmanship Breakpoints for 4★Crafting

[Silverbane]

I took this data and applied it to the Rath's MaMa rotation, looking to determine when an increase in crafstmanship might allow one more failed Flawless Synthesis (FS) before requiring conversion of a Hasty Touch to a fourth CSII.

The answer is 148 progress, corresponding to something over 1050 Craftsmanship,
and 162 progress, which may not even be reachable.

At 139 progress/CS2, you can fail four FS and complete with 3 CSII. Failing 5 to 7 FS requires converting one Hasty.
At 148 progress/CS2, you can fail five FS and complete with 3 CSII. Failing 6 to 8 FS requires converting one Hasty.
At 162 progress/CS2, you can fail six FS and complete with 3 CSII. Failing 7 to 10 FS requires converting one Hasty.

Note that Rath's MaMa for 4* has 16 FS, of which 3 cannot fail. Assuming no conversions of FS to ToT, the odds of having four or less of the 13 "at risk" FS fail is 99.3%. If you convert one FS to a ToT, the odds of having three or less FS of the 12 remaining "at risk FS" fail is 97.5%. If you convert two FS to ToTs, the odds of having two or less FS of the 11 remaining "at risk FS" fail is 91%.

So it looks like Craftsmanship above the minimum does very little to improve your odds when using Rath's MaMa rotation. Other rotation might see different results, but Rath's MaMa only gets 12.3% of it's progress on a 4* craft from Craftsmanship-dependent actions.