Craftsmanship Breakpoints for 4★Crafting

[Silverbane]

I took this data and applied it to the Rath's MaMa rotation, looking to determine when an increase in crafstmanship might allow one more failed Flawless Synthesis (FS) before requiring conversion of a Hasty Touch to a fourth CSII.

The answer is 148 progress, corresponding to something over 1050 Craftsmanship,
and 162 progress, which may not even be reachable.

At 139 progress/CS2, you can fail four FS and complete with 3 CSII. Failing 5 to 7 FS requires converting one Hasty.
At 148 progress/CS2, you can fail five FS and complete with 3 CSII. Failing 6 to 8 FS requires converting one Hasty.
At 162 progress/CS2, you can fail six FS and complete with 3 CSII. Failing 7 to 10 FS requires converting one Hasty.

Note that Rath's MaMa for 4* has 16 FS, of which 3 cannot fail. Assuming no conversions of FS to ToT, the odds of having four or less of the 13 "at risk" FS fail is 99.3%. If you convert one FS to a ToT, the odds of having three or less FS of the 12 remaining "at risk FS" fail is 97.5%. If you convert two FS to ToTs, the odds of having two or less FS of the 11 remaining "at risk FS" fail is 91%.

So it looks like Craftsmanship above the minimum does very little to improve your odds when using Rath's MaMa rotation. Other rotation might see different results, but Rath's MaMa only gets 12.3% of it's progress on a 4* craft from Craftsmanship-dependent actions.

[Sayboar]

I took this data and applied it to the Rath's MaMa rotation... -snip-

Not sure how much you care about weird breakpoints for using MaMa, but if you're still using a maker's mark rotation you can complete a 4-star synth in two CSII from 1684 progress (12 out of 13 flawless synth successes) with 2x 142 progress CSIIs (1014-ish craftsmanship), from 1644 (11 out of 13) with 1x csII & 1x IngII CSII (at base 995), or from 1604 (10 out of 13) with a bit higher craftsmanship (1092-ish)

[Silverbane]

Not sure how much you care about weird breakpoints for using MaMa, but if you're still using a maker's mark rotation you can complete a 4-star synth in two CSII from 1684 progress (12 out of 13 flawless synth successes) with 2x 142 progress CSIIs (1014-ish craftsmanship) ...

I noticed that 142 CSII progress allows completion in two CSII's more often than 139 does. But because of the risk of accidental early completion and because I would be replacing the CSII with an unbuffed Hasty Touch, I didn't consider that particularly advantageous.

More Control, on the other hand, never hurts. We've probably all seen 98%-HQ-chance synths come up NQ, and it's not fun.

On a related note, last week my wife and I both filled in two lines in our Wondrous Tails book and picked up 3 Mhachi Demimatters each - just two days after dumping a few million gil into melding our mains and her first alt to 4* stats. Oh well, I guess there's still my first alt to meld, although we have all the specialists at 4* already ...

I haven't quantitized the probable benefit of more Control, but for now, my strategy is get the required 995 Craftmanship, max my CP, and put the rest of my effort into Control.