The chance of winning the 3 lines reward of Wondrous Tails is ridiculously low

[gzuscry]

Yeah first few weeks those second chances just rains on you, but a bit later those points will be like rain in atacama desert. Besides that i can see that 3 lines is nearly doa and gonna be very very rare, sure those devs will just see data center overall number and'll say - working as intended . However i did enjoy my 2 mgp cards from two lines with extra 100k mgp

[wicked-one]

1:476

Must be one of the best RNG Quotes i´ve ever encoutered in this game...

Like Jumbo Cactopot, it´s probably not supposed to be won by 50% of the Server + you got a ton of 2nd Chance points to gamble even more with it.

what you can probably rant about it, is that each and everybody on the server got the same rewards, even if some have no use for tank and dragoon chestpieces besides selling it and buying the right one...

[Raikki]

I'm still working on the chances of shuffling into a double line formation.

I already did the work on this if you're interested. 32/11440 7-seal cards have two lines, so you have a 0.28% chance to shuffle into one. However, of those, only 16 have three ways (8.3% chance) to make the 3rd line. 8 have two ways (5.6% chance), and 8 have one way (2.8% chance). Overall, the average two-line 7-seal card has a 6.25% chance to become a three-line card when the last two seals are added.

[StouterTaru]

If you use Second Chance Shuffle to complete any 2 lines, there is a 8.33% to complete the 3rd line.

...

the probability is 6/9 * 1/8 = 1/12 = 8.33%.

That only applies to one diagonal line and one horizontal/vertical, of which there are 16 combinations.

If you have one horizontal and one vertical line, there is only one diagonal combination that works, so odds are 2/9 * 1/8 = 1/36. There are also 16 of those combinations.

That means a 7 sticker shuffle gives a 1/715 chance of a two line that has a 1/12 chance of triple, and a 1/715 chance of a two line that has a 1/36 chance of a triple. It's worth holding on to if you get it, but not something to keep shuffling until you do.

[Raikki]

That only applies to one diagonal line and one horizontal/vertical, of which there are 16 combinations.

If you have one horizontal and one vertical line, there is only one diagonal combination that works, so odds are 2/9 * 1/8 = 1/36. There are also 16 of those combinations.

You're missing the horizontal+vertical cards where both diagonals work, the ones where one line is at an edge row and the other line is in one of the middle columns, and vice versa.

[Tint]

[...] + you got a ton of 2nd Chance points to gamble even more with it.

what you can probably rant about it, is that each and everybody on the server got the same rewards, even if some have no use for tank and dragoon chestpieces besides selling it and buying the right one...

you get more 2nd chances in the first week because of all the new content with a lot of first timers. that means tanks and dragoons have it easier to get their chest than any other job. and how will you buy the right piece of gear when all pieces are for the same 2 jobs..?

[StouterTaru]

You're missing the horizontal+vertical cards where both diagonals work, the ones where one line is at an edge row and the other line is in one of the middle columns, and vice versa.

OK see that now, so it's:
3/1430 chance at 1/12
1/1430 chance at 1/36

It's still only 24 double possibilities at 7 stickers, and several times as many combos that are potential triples without two full lines.

[Raikki]

It's still only 24 double possibilities at 7 stickers, and several times as many combos that are potential triples without two full lines.

824/11440 (7.2%) of 7-seal cards have the potential to turn into 3 Line cards. The average probability of obtaining a 3-Line card from one of those is 2.9%.

[Yukiko]

you get more 2nd chances in the first week because of all the new content with a lot of first timers. that means tanks and dragoons have it easier to get their chest than any other job. and how will you buy the right piece of gear when all pieces are for the same 2 jobs..?

I agree, finding first timers will become very hard later on and they should consider an alternate way to get those 2nd chances (maybe buying with tome stones?) but lets be fair:

I am surprised that they let us have "unlimited" 2nd chances!
True it is capped at 9 but after using them up you can refill if you like...
It is a thin thread of "hope"... and i like it.

Edit: To replace a mission with an other one is very good, but still with RNG and thats not so good... I like expert run (each day) and i can get a sticker each time, its a good feature - not forcing us to do other content if we dont like!!

[Zefiris]

Well, I never did trial extreme and Coil/Alexandrer. Is then it useless I do this quest? Even only trying to win simple reward? I am happy only with 500 poetics or 10.000 gil xD