With the current increase rate of minimum stats require for each starred recipe it is literally impossible to reach theoretical 4-Star minimums with current gear, even with max overmelded i170 gear. This means that they HAVE to release a new set before 4-Star recipes are released. Given these facts, it's safe to assume that the recipes being released in 3.3 will be 3-Star and the absolute earliest we will see 4-Star recipes is in 3.4 (or a 3.35 Relic update). We have plenty of time to dread the amount of steps a 4-Star Craft will take (A couple months at least), but I'll bet we can cut out Maker's Mark and still have a reliable rotation given enough stats.

That being said, the thing I appreciate most about Maker's Mark + Piece by Piece is the fact that they scale with difficulty making Progress much easier to guarantee regardless of recipe difficulty, even if it takes a little longer.