

Right on the head.If SE really wants to keep this stuff replayed, they should put the mount in the shop for X tokens, such that X is a finite number and not infinity as it currently, mathematically is. People just want a light at the end of the tunnel - its motivation to replay this stuff more.
I think this is the takeaway for square. If they choose to do nothing for these mounts, then at least keep this in mind for the next set of primal mounts. An actual, guaranteed, end is all we're asking for.

I can almost guarantee that if they implement this and set X as something reasonable (up to 1000), then the number of people willing to start or resume bird farm will be inversely proportional to X. 99 is borderline ok, 200 is pretty solid, 250 is pretty solid, even at 1000, I would still be a happy Elezen.
It might just be me, but 250 runs per mount sounds ridiculous, let alone 1,000. Assuming 10 minutes per run (including queue times, and that's being generous), that's 166 hours per mount and even at 250 runs it's at a rather high 40 hours per mount. Most people wouldn't bother until it inevitably gets nerfed to something small like 50 tokens after 4.0, where the drop rate will also be increased alongside the time to kill being substantially lower. This isn't even taking into account the Sephirot or Thordan mounts, where it's difficult to clear one, and rather challenging to consistently clear it on DF with the other.
I do have a lower threshold for grinds than most people though, but I'm not sure of anyone who's masochistic enough to run it 1,000 times (managed 100 A1 runs before going mad).

Please! 7 thorden birds. They decided to end the farm before i get one!


run 308 of bismark extreme - saw another bird, rolled a 21. Lost again.

Uh, my Bismarck runs are 5 min each (Roughly an exact battlevoice CD) and Ravana's about 3-4 each. Longer for the other 2 primals I guess (but hey they are more recent). :O
The aim of the suggestion is for SE to give us a failsafe, which, while should be reasonable (and finite), not an easier method of obtainmemt. 250 runs currently grants 79.14% chance to see the mount drop and win the roll. 100 runs is 46.58%. While it's reasonable to cut the unlucky 20.86% of the playerbase a break, I'm not sure its not too easy to give the mount to the unlucky 53.42% (or higher percentage)...
IMO they can always set it high now, then change it later to accomodate drop rate increases.
Numerical sources: 5% drop rate, binomial distribution, MATLAB
Last edited by Luxea; 03-28-2016 at 09:01 PM.


Haven't done it much lately since I'm kinda burnt out.. but I'm up to 315 runs, and still haven't won a bird yet.

I got mine at 234 runs. Moving on to Ravana's mount for my twin sis. We're both skewing out chances of winning the roll by passing for each other for an obtainment rate per run of 5%/7 instead of 5%/8.
Goodluck, Dorander!


Congrats and thanks! I'll need it. Run 324, saw another whistle. Rolled a 13.
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