Something needs to be done about Alex Normal looting system.

[Archaell]

There are 4 items per run. 4/8. You have 50% chance to win an item every run... if you run it enough times :P (Also sometimes players need only what they really need, which increases the chance to win an item)

But I agree that if you need something like the shaft, where everyone is doing A4 to get shafts, it can be pain to farm it. The best way to fix your problem is to create a PF party.

In my opinion Ex like token system would be better... but SE.

[Martin_Arcainess]

There are 4 items per run. 4/8. You have 50% chance to win an item every run... if you run it enough times :P (Also sometimes players need only what they really need, which increases the chance to win an item)

But I agree that if you need something like the shaft, where everyone is doing A4 to get shafts, it can be pain to farm it. The best way to fix your problem is to create a PF party.

In my opinion Ex like token system would be better... but SE.

50%? na it's a lot lower then that now that 1 person could potential acquire all 4 items in 1 go, if you gonna do % I'd say more along the lines of 12.5%.

but totally agree with OP it's got worse now that the loot res was removed.

[Kaurie]

I agree the current design is horrible (as it was on release). I would prefer the actual items to drop than these tokens.

There are 4 items per run. 4/8. You have 50% chance to win an item every run... if you run it enough times :P (Also sometimes players need only what they really need, which increases the chance to win an item)

Each item doesn't effect the chances of winning the next item. Essentially there are a much larger number of possibilities of receiving an item. So yes, there are increased variables in which you'll receive a loot drop, but there are exponentially increase variables in which you don't. So the value is still around 1 in 8 (I believe, I haven't done the math).

But I agree that if you need something like the shaft, where everyone is doing A4 to get shafts, it can be pain to farm it. The best way to fix your problem is to create a PF party.

I kind of agree with this, but even that is stupid. To get a full 8 person party all 4 shafts will take you 32 runs.

In my opinion Ex like token system would be better... but SE.

100% agree. The loot should just drop with everyone receiving a token, so that if they don't receive their item in X runs they can purchase it. Move all equipment slots to 10 items needed. Give 1 bolt, 1 pedal in A1, 1 lens, 1 chain in A2, 1 crank, 1 spring in A3 and 1 shaft in A4 in addition to 2 random equipment items from the loot list.



I spent 15 hours doing Alex normal (floors 1 and 4) this weekend, and I got 3 bolts. Fun times.

[Archaell]

I agree the current design is horrible (as it was on release). I would prefer the actual items to drop than these tokens.



Each item doesn't effect the chances of winning the next item. Essentially there are a much larger number of possibilities of receiving an item. So yes, there are increased variables in which you'll receive a loot drop, but there are exponentially increase variables in which you don't. So the value is still around 1 in 8 (I believe, I haven't done the math).

That's why I said if you do it enough times. Of course in the smaller sample size it is highly improbable to get close to 50% ^.^

[Kaurie]

That's why I said if you do it enough times. Of course in the smaller sample size it is highly improbable to get close to 50% ^.^

but running it more doesn't increase your chances of getting it on a given run, it simply increases your chances of getting it period.

It's been awhile since I've done stats, probability etc - so I need some help with this, as it doesn't seem quite right. Here is what I haev so far.

Say w, x, y and z dropped. You have the following loot possibilities:
wzxy, w, wx, wxy, wyz, wy, wxz, x, xy, xyz, xz, y, yz, z = 14 possible scenarios of receiving an item.

Then there are 8 possible outcomes for each item (1 of 8 people could get each of x, y, z and w), so there are 8 * 8 * 8 * 8 = 4096 possible outcomes.

so your chances of winning is 14 in 4096. However, this seems particularly low (much lower than I'd expect at 1 in 8). Please, tear apart my math and show me what I did wrong.

[Archaell]

...

If we look at one single run then ok. It was a joke, as I was looking at RNG from the bigger picture instead of the individual experience.

I am not good with math, but we should not get bellow 1/8 for each item, so rolling for 4 should improve the probability from 12.5%.

[ChameleonMS]

Please, tear apart my math and show me what I did wrong.

Each loot roll is independent of all others. Combining the probabilities as you did was your mistake for determining a roll outcome.
A player has a 1 / (8 - passers) chance of winning a loot role.

Now, if you want to determine the probabilities of winning specific combination of rolls (e.g. wyz) your math is fine.

[Kaurie]

Each loot roll is independent of all others. Combining the probabilities as you did was your mistake for determining a roll outcome.
A player has a 1 / (8 - passers) chance of winning a loot role.

Now, if you want to determine the probabilities of winning specific combination of rolls (e.g. wyz) your math is fine.

I appreciate the feedback. I understand that each roll is independent of all others, but that shouldn't negate that there are 4092 different possible outcomes, right? I feel the part that is incorrect must be the possible outcomes in which you receive loot (I counted 14 total, but maybe I was wrong)?

[Zova]

.....

I don't have the time to do the math right now but I can at least point out the flaw in your methodology that is leading to your abnormally low numbers. The problem is that you are only considering getting 1 drop per run as a single combination.

For instance, if I were to receive a single item as a drop, we would need to consider all the possible combinations that this can occur in. Looking at the instance in which I win the first drop but lose all the other drops, then we need to consider all possibilities for the last 3 drops in which I do not win.

The number of possible combinations for this outcome of Win|Lose|Lose|Lose is:

N = 1*7*7*7 = 343

It is 7 per roll for the last three since there are 7 possible winners for each of the three remaining drops, since I have stipulated that I only win one roll, I don't count myself. Then the odds I win one drop, and that drop is the first drop is:

Odds = 343/4096 = .08 or 8%.

Remember that there are actually 4 possibilities of one win and three losses, so my real odds of winning 1 item is closer to 30%. Adding in the possibility of winning more than one increases these odds even further.