Learning how to properly play AST

[AzureFlare]

Don't know how you got to 1450 total potency for Aero 3, since Aero 3 is 50 + 40*(24/3) = 370. 5 * aero 3 would be 1850. I went over your calculations and since the rest of it is correct, the total potency would be 12230, making it 122300 damage or 1019.17 dps for WHM.

Don't forget that with the changes, there's nothing RNG/unreliable about starting your parse with an extended/enhanced Balance. Considering you would put either variation (or even more likely, expanded Balance) at that point, a 10% difference will be made up by the cards.

You did mention you were working under 100% hitrate, but this one feels like it should get some more emphasis. I think the missrate is what, a third or so without any accuracy above base? So being really lenient to the WHM and considering an equal spread, WHM would miss 1.67 Aero 3, 3.33 Aero 2s, 1.33 Fluid, 0.66 Assize and 9.33 Stone 3. AST would miss 12.66 Malefic 2.
Multiplying those numbers further would give you 12230 - (617.9 + 832.5 + 200 + 200 + 1959) = 8421.5 potency for WHM, and 10840 - 2532 = 8308 potency for AST, making the difference a little less than 2%. (Do check my calculations since it is early here.) AST also has the benefit of adding 5 seconds to any Mind potion used, for how much that helps during the opener (it can add up very nicely).

Now I do realise that this is a very theoretical way of calculating with missrate since you're more likely to sacrifice Stone 3 potency compared to the others. Let's say for missing, any spell replaceable with Stone 3 would be replaced with it, making this a lower-bound calculation in favor of WHM. In this case, we'd have 9.33 + 3.33 + 1.67 Stone 3, 1.33 Fluid and 0.66 Assize, or 13.33 Stone 3, 1.33 Fluid and 0.66 Assize.
Then the potencies would be 12230 - (2799.3 + 200 + 200) = 9030.7 compared to AST 8308. Still a lower than 10% difference which a single Balance during the raid's opener would arguably nullify. Not doing the math right now, but I'm pretty sure even a missrate as low as 20% would have the WHM drop below a 10% difference on the lower bound calculation, which in reality escalates into an even further deficit for the WHM. Add to this that Balance additions are fairly stationary since tanks and DPS should have the accuracy requirements, pulling AST even further ahead the higher the missrate becomes, and since damage scales fairly linear and more strongly for DPS (in terms of DPS, thanks to missrate), AST again pulls even further ahead as gear goes.

And since I know people will bring up the "u shun't doe twu minutez, WHM haz bettuh manaaz". Let's assume both AST and WHM have 14k mana. Assize would restore 10% mana, 1400 in this case, every 90 seconds. I think Shroud and LA both restore.. 707 mana per tick? (Need someone to confirm, I might be off here) and you'll extend LA every 2 minutes for a 1404 mana gain. 1400 / 90s vs 1404 /120s, or 15.55mana/s vs 11.7 mana/s . I can tell you right now, if the AST draws a Spear only once and it gives you an additional LA + CO cast on the fight (so say shroud would be 8 casts and LA + CO would be 8, but now becomes 9), AST gains a 3505 mana advantage and nullifies one Assize advantage.
So you'd need 3505 / (15.55 - 11.7) seconds for WHM to pull ahead. For whoever hasn't done the math, that is 910.4 seconds, or an encounter of 15:10 minutes, excluding the mentioned nullfication of an Assize boost. I don't think there is an encounter that lasts that long. Given, the odds of this happening are also not the greatest since you'd have a 20second interval before the WHM gets their shroud again (including animations, assuming perfect downtime), and you'd likely need more than 1 Spear to achieve this effect properly.

Suppose instead we draw the much safer and reliable Ewer. Ewer gives us 1325 mana unbuffed, 1855 if using CO. In the first case, for WHM to pull ahead the fight would have to be 1325 / (15.55 - 11.7), you'd need the fight to last 344.2 seconds, or 5:44 minutes. In the case of the CO-extended Ewer, 481.18 seconds or 8:01 minutes. Now since Ewer is 100% foolproof and most fights don't last beyond 11 minutes, it is easy to see now an AST that puts 2 blank ewers or an extended ewer will win the mana war. In that same 11 minute fight, that is 2 cards in a total of 23 or so, minus the initial AoE Balance setup. If you get that Ewer during your LA + CO combo, the WHM is done for mana-wise, and it is very likely to draw at least 2 Ewers, an extended Ewer or an enhanced Ewer (spread and combo into LACO) during 11 minutes.

I know the debate goes further than that to the point you look at Freecure, Lightspeed, potencies and manacosts, but this was strictly looking at it mana wise. I'm actually a little baffled myself looking at the numbers.

P.S. Would love to know your det and MND being at ilvl 205 with eso and my Malefic 2 hits maybe 1800-1840 on average.