Thinking this game is a bad investment

[inimicus]

So I went to check the numbers and FFXIV has 26% of WoW's server capacity (64 to 246) and 9% (500k) to 18% (1m) of their subs (5.6m Q2 2015). Server cost to subscriber ratio is actually almost three times worse with FFXIV in the worst case. Then there's also wages and taxes and million other things.

No doubt it's making a profit, because there probably wouldn't never have been an expansion and real euro servers otherwise, but I've never liked the "subs x monthly fee = gazillions of profit" logic.

Two things:
1. Comparing server capacity between two MMOs without official numbers is probably fruitless. We don't know what hardware they run on, and we don't know what they do. We have no idea how much money they each cost.
Of course, if they ever both said those specifications, then we'd be able to do something, but I don't believe that is the case here.
2. Subnumbers aren't a thing. We know nothing about subnumbers apart from very (mostly optimistic) estimates by people. What they announce was registered, once-paying or still-paying, accounts.
That is, as far as I know. Please correct me if we know otherwise.

Personally, I'd be suprised if FFXIV had more than ~300k subscribers at this time, roughly extrapolated from Alex NM clear numbers at the Eorzea Census 2015:

I'd wager that there are about ~200k. That's just me guessing though, so I won't make up my mind about these topics and their profit with that.

[Iris_BP]

I'd wager that there are about ~200k. That's just me guessing though, so I won't make up my mind about these topics and their profit with that.

Well, to be honest not everyone is interested in raids, there are dedicated crafters, there are RPers and just people who don't like raid environment, especially in a DF. But it will amount to 20-25% maximum, so yeah, 300k+ or something around that, maybe a little more.

On a side note, players crying SO HARD about housing reclamation... The rivers of tears all over the forums, sometimes I feel like Im in an attorney's office, really. There are countless threads here, countless messages on reddit. What is wrong with people?

[inimicus]

Well, to be honest not everyone is interested in raids, there are dedicated crafters, there are RPers and just people who don't like raid environment, especially in a DF. But it will amount to 20-25% maximum, so yeah, 300k+ or something around that, maybe a little more.

True. But Alex NM is something that almost everyone who is active will have at least tried, imho. At the time when the Census was released, I guessed there to be ~300k subscribers. 250k Alex NM clears + Crafters + RPers + People who joined with HW + People who were still leveling + etc. ~= 300k. Maybe 350k.
With people reporting that people are leaving everywhere, a drop of 50k-100k seems to be expected, especially since, apparently, a lot of people have been following the "sub for patching, play content, unsub till next patch" rotation.
Still, my point is that their income (not to even speak of their profits) are guaranteed to be less than what people have been throwing around in places (ex. the Housing Reclamation announced thread).
I think the highest I saw there was 5 Million subs. Dude, if they had 5 MILLION subs, I think everyone would have cosplayed as a Morbol in the two Years Anniversary stream.

On a side note, players crying SO HARD about housing reclamation... The rivers of tears all over the forums, sometimes I feel like Im in an attorney's office, really. There are countless threads here, countless messages on reddit. What is wrong with people?

I have no idea. Personally, I went "Oh, okay. Sounds good. Maybe 45 days is a little short, though." and went back to doing other stuff.
If I could enjoy all the Salt, I think I would be happy for a few months from now on, but sadly I can't.

[Cheraa]

Well, to be honest not everyone is interested in raids, there are dedicated crafters, there are RPers and just people who don't like raid environment, especially in a DF. But it will amount to 20-25% maximum, so yeah, 300k+ or something around that, maybe a little more.

Don't forget players that just started FF XIV with HW Release.
In my FC are at least 10 player that has been completly new to FF XIV and most of them just hit Level 60 in the last two weeks, currently staying at ilvl 145-160 and gearing up for Alex. And I think, we are by far not the only FC that got new Players with HW Release.
I think overall 400-500k Subs is realistic for FF XIV.

[Iris_BP]

Don't forget players that just started FF XIV with HW Release.
In my FC are at least 10 player that has been completly new to FF XIV and most of them just hit Level 60 in the last two weeks, currently staying at ilvl 145-160 and gearing up for Alex. And I think, we are by far not the only FC that got new Players with HW Release.
I think overall 400-500k Subs is realistic for FF XIV.

That's true. Damn, I myself came after HW. Granted I played 1.0 starting from beta for quite some time (that's why it took me so long to go and try ARR, lol). But it feels like such a long time ago, already

[MilesSaintboroguh]

snip

Sorry, but using Square's graph data on who cleared Alex and Alex savage isn't really a good indicator on how active the player base is. It only shows how many people managed to clear said content and doesn't count people who tried it but failed or people who don't care for the raid. You can't assume every single player will clear Alexander or show any interest in trying to clear it.

[inimicus]

Sorry, but using Square's graph data on who cleared Alex and Alex savage isn't really a good indicator on how active the player base is. It only shows how many people managed to clear said content and doesn't count people who tried it but failed or people who don't care for the raid. You can't assume every single player will clear Alexander or show any interest in trying to clear it.

Your last sentence suggests that you didn't actually read the last page. As in: I didn't assume that.
I assumed that you could use that as a rough estimate. And my whole point was that it was still juggling numbers that we didn't have a good basis for and therefore totally irrelevant besides disproving absurd numbers like 5 million subs.