River of Blood will always be gated with Wanderer's Minuet, and it's useless to metagame an idea that doesn't yet exist. There'll be plenty of scenarios when you can't hit your BL/RoD immediately, creating an overall DPS loss. Also having BL proc over and over and over again can cause issues for your OGCDs, which in turn messes up your necessary GCDs (EA, Iron Jaws, SS). River of Blood isn't as game breaking for Bard's meta as it was in 2.0. That being said, don't misconstrue my words: River of Blood is incredibly useful and pairs extremely well with multi-dotting Iron Jaws. We shine in AS1 for that reason.
Also your numbers are... off, or confusing at least. Where was it discovered that the base crit modifier is 45%? Is this pre 2.0, post 3.0? You do realize that the Crit Damage formula was changed, and how Crit works is also changed, right? I guess I need more information from you to truly understand where you're coming from.
Finally, Ballad and Foe aren't necessary, depending on the composition. If you're overgearing content, Ballad becomes negligible, along with Paeon. If your group is three melee, 1 caster, then Foe becomes less useful as well and the addition of a Ninja, Summoner, or DRG bring additional utility that'll effect raid DPS just as much. However, I will say that Floor 1~4 caters to Bard in terms of longevity, as their songs very strong for fights like As2, As3, and As4.



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