Discounting the two totally failed synths from falling asleep on the keyboard during Lucis turn-in synthing, I NQed 2 and HQed 20 using my Shark Fin Soup rotation. It runs a ton of low chance HTs, but can fail HT a bunch and still get HQ. The rotation is just:
  1. CZ*
  2. IQ*
  3. SH2
  4. WN2 (yeah, I know, I know, but it works here!)
  5. RS
  6. HT
  7. HT
  8. HT**
  9. HT** (yes, these are 50% HTs)
  10. HT** ^
  11. HT* ^
  12. CZ* (The following bit is a bit odd depending on where the Goods fall, if any. This assumes no goods, though you need at least 1 in the entire rotation.)
  13. Manip*
  14. SH2*
  15. HT*
  16. HT*
  17. Manip*
  18. HT*
  19. HT* (can be BT instead if you've had 4+ ToTs)
  20. SH* (can be SH2 instead if you've had 3+ ToTs)
  21. HT* (can be BT instead if you've had 3+ ToTs)
  22. GS (if 0 ToTs at this point, just BB and CS2 instead and go trade in your NQ for the mats unless you get lucky on your ~20% chance)
  23. If 1 ToT (41 or less CP) or Good or Excellent condition: BB; If 2+ ToTs (42+ CP) and Normal condition, Innovation
  24. If 37 or less CP, or Good or Excellent condition: BB; If you somehow have 38+ CP and Normal condition, Observe
  25. BB if you haven't already
  26. CS2
* use ToT after if Good
** use ToT after if Good, but only once

Obviously, if you ever get an Excellent with IQ6+, use BB (unless you have 5 durability). With just IQ6, BB will give 4k quality.

0 HT failures, 1+ Tricks: 100%
1 HT failure, 1+ Tricks: 100%
2 HT failures, 1+ Tricks, Good condition: 100%
2 HT failures, 2+ Tricks, Normal condition: 96% <-- These are what I usually wound up with
2 HT failures, 1 Tricks, Normal condition: 86%
3 HT failures, 2+ Tricks, Good condition: 100% <-- These are what I usually wound up with
3 HT failures, 1 Tricks, Good condition: 93%
3 HT failures, 2+ Tricks, Normal condition: 79% <-- These are what I usually wound up with
3 HT failures, 1 Tricks, Normal condition: 66%
4 HT failures, 2+ Tricks, Good condition: 88%
4 HT failures, 1 Tricks, Good condition: 73%
4 HT failures, 2+ Tricks, Normal condition: 33%
4 HT failures, 1 Tricks, Normal condition: 25%

(an excellent will hit 100% even with 6 failures - after 6, you drop fast)

On average, you will fail 3 HTs and get 3 ToTs, giving you 79% on a Normal and 100% on a Good after the Inno, 93% if you get a Good after the GS.

Here's the macro with 2 ToTs simulated: http://www.ffxivcrafter.com/crafting...tor&guid=cbdDx (I'd post the link with http://ffxiv.lokyst.net/ as well, but that site a) doesn't seem to have a link feature, and b) doesn't have a way to take into account intricacies, like if RS fails, you replace the next HT with RS until RS succeeds once, and so on)

RS + CS2 is enough to finish the synth with Shark Fin Soup up, at least with my offhand melds.