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  1. #1
    Player
    Lexiii's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    Posts
    22
    Character
    Alexis Crendraven
    World
    Gilgamesh
    Main Class
    Conjurer Lv 50
    Quote Originally Posted by Lemuria View Post
    Sadly, there are always extreme exceptions.
    That's the whole point of my change, narrowing the std dev to an acceptable level. As is, 0.23% of players will take more than 800 fates to get their atmas. That's a tiny number, but guess what it is with my change? 0%. I bumped the sample size up to 10 million (from 1 million). Still 0 people took more than 800 fates to get their atma. 20 million? After stressing my CPU running horribly inefficient code for 10 minutes, guess what? Still 0 :P. I understand that statistically speaking it can still happen, but it's so unlikely that it's basically impossible.
    (3)

  2. #2
    Player
    Alistaire's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Posts
    2,980
    Character
    Your Character
    World
    Sargatanas
    Main Class
    Blue Mage Lv 60
    Quote Originally Posted by Lexiii View Post
    That's the whole point of my change, narrowing the std dev to an acceptable level. As is, 0.23% of players will take more than 800 fates to get their atmas. That's a tiny number, but guess what it is with my change? 0%. I bumped the sample size up to 10 million (from 1 million). Still 0 people took more than 800 fates to get their atma. 20 million? After stressing my CPU running horribly inefficient code for 10 minutes, guess what? Still 0 :P. I understand that statistically speaking it can still happen, but it's so unlikely that it's basically impossible.
    edit: nvm misread...so you're saying as they are right now only 0.23% of players take more than 800 fates? I knew there was a reason I thought these threads were ridiculous.

    Still, doing what you say would make the average time the same and eliminate the prospect of being screwed over? I wouldn't be mad at that.
    (1)

  3. #3
    Player
    Taliph's Avatar
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    Aug 2012
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    213
    Character
    Taliph Stillwood
    World
    Excalibur
    Main Class
    Conjurer Lv 50
    Quote Originally Posted by Alistaire View Post
    edit: nvm misread...so you're saying as they are right now only 0.23% of players take more than 800 fates? I knew there was a reason I thought these threads were ridiculous.

    Still, doing what you say would make the average time the same and eliminate the prospect of being screwed over? I wouldn't be mad at that.
    .23% of 2,000,000 players is still 4600 players who shouldn't have to be an extreme outlier.
    (2)

  4. #4
    Player
    Alistaire's Avatar
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    Sep 2013
    Posts
    2,980
    Character
    Your Character
    World
    Sargatanas
    Main Class
    Blue Mage Lv 60
    Quote Originally Posted by Taliph View Post
    .23% of 2,000,000 players is still 4600 players who shouldn't have to be an extreme outlier.
    There's only 604841 characters serverwide that have the storyline magitek mount right now. Pretty sure a bunch of those and a bunch of players not doing the relic path make the baseline figure much, much smaller.
    (3)

  5. #5
    Player
    Lexiii's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    Posts
    22
    Character
    Alexis Crendraven
    World
    Gilgamesh
    Main Class
    Conjurer Lv 50
    Quote Originally Posted by Alistaire View Post
    edit: nvm misread...so you're saying as they are right now only 0.23% of players take more than 800 fates?
    Roughly, yes. Assuming it is actually a 3% drop rate (which I believe it is, from my own observations of reports). 99.7775% of people should get their 12th atma by the 800th fate.However, don't discredit people because it's rare. It will happen. Out of 1 million players, it will happen to 2,000 people. That's a lot. I made a new graph to represent chance of getting atma by # of fates. http://i.imgur.com/LcMkXuD.png Same key as last time, violet = suggested system, green = current system. Keep in mind that two of the dots to the far right are the key, not actual datapoints. Violet ends at 504, green continues on past the graph until some poor fool that took 1258 fates.
    (0)

  6. #6
    Player
    Aegis's Avatar
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    Mar 2011
    Posts
    1,161
    Character
    Aegis Elisus
    World
    Balmung
    Main Class
    Armorer Lv 70
    Quote Originally Posted by Lexiii View Post
    Roughly, yes. Assuming it is actually a 3% drop rate (which I believe it is, from my own observations of reports). 99.7775% of people should get their 12th atma by the 800th fate.However, don't discredit people because it's rare. It will happen. Out of 1 million players, it will happen to 2,000 people. That's a lot. I made a new graph to represent chance of getting atma by # of fates. http://i.imgur.com/LcMkXuD.png Same key as last time, violet = suggested system, green = current system. Keep in mind that two of the dots to the far right are the key, not actual datapoints. Violet ends at 504, green continues on past the graph until some poor fool that took 1258 fates.
    But I've seen at least a dozen people on here assure me they've done thousands of FATEs and haven't got a full set. You're not going to accuse these people of misrepresenting themselves are you?
    (1)

  7. #7
    Player
    16bitBounty's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Location
    Houston, TX
    Posts
    559
    Character
    Alyssin Kiger
    World
    Cactuar
    Main Class
    Dark Knight Lv 80
    Quote Originally Posted by Aegis View Post
    But I've seen at least a dozen people on here assure me they've done thousands of FATEs and haven't got a full set. You're not going to accuse these people of misrepresenting themselves are you?
    People by nature come to the forums to complain, of course you're going to hear lots of people bitching about not getting their ATMAs to drop. These people are lazy and want to be spoon fed.
    (4)

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