RNG doesn't hate you

[Nutz]

Man, lots of people in this thread don't seem to understand RNG very well. The OP is pretty spot on with most of this, except, as Krr said, there are hundreds of thousands (if not more than a million) people playing, which allows for a lot of extreme outliers. It's just bad business to use a method like this. Sure it will have the desired effect for the majority of the population, but the system allows for people to get atmas first try in every zone (probably has never happend and said player certainly wouldn't complain) or for it to take an indefinite number of attempts (literally never going to finish). Given the size of the population, if something has a 1/1,000,000 (.0001%) chance of happening, it will likely happen to someone. If it's only a 0.01% chance of happening it's going to happen to 100 of the million people.

Even though it's statistically insignificant, it's going to make for a very bad experience for some of your players. As such, there should be caps where possible (ie. atmas can from FATES at X% chance and will definitely drop on the 50th FATE, reset counter at acquisition).

EDIT: also someone pointed out that people tend to notice bad results much more readily than good results (regardless of what might have been expected). This seems to happen very frequently in this game (or at least I notice it more in this game than anywhere else). I can't count the times a FC mate has complained that when gathering they'll miss repeatedly when the chance is 85%. I fell into the same trap for a time and then bothered to actually keep track for a bit and found that while I noted each miss with frustration, the far greater number of hits were just taken for granted and statistically it worked out as advertised.