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  1. #21
    Player
    Haibel's Avatar
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    Mar 2011
    Posts
    647
    Character
    Lona Shiri
    World
    Hyperion
    Main Class
    Gladiator Lv 80
    Quote Originally Posted by Fawkes View Post
    If it is an actual 41% chance, then you expect the results to be 41 out of 100. That's literally what a percent is, a ratio out of 100. Saying 41% is the exact same thing as saying 41/100.
    that's not how probability works. Maybe if this was a single player game and you could only try 100 times that would be true.
    (0)

  2. #22
    Player
    Haibel's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Posts
    647
    Character
    Lona Shiri
    World
    Hyperion
    Main Class
    Gladiator Lv 80
    Quote Originally Posted by Alukah View Post
    I'm aware of that, I'm talking about getting the same end results from five different sequences that were done one after another, you may seem them unrelated because the sequences were different, I don't.
    What I'm saying is once the system tells you that you fail. that is the end of the sequence. all attempts after have no bearing on the previous.
    doing it a bunch of times in a row is not going to improve your odds of hitting a positive result.
    (4)

  3. #23
    Player Alukah's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2014
    Posts
    1,475
    Character
    Alukah Bast
    World
    Excalibur
    Main Class
    Goldsmith Lv 90
    Quote Originally Posted by Haibel View Post
    What I'm saying is once the system tells you that you fail. that is the end of the sequence. all attempts after have no bearing on the previous.
    doing it a bunch of times in a row is not going to improve your odds of hitting a positive result.
    Say you could see the actual number, say you roll a 55 out of 1000 five times in a row, but each roll was unrelated to the previous, would you really say there's nothing wrong with the PRNG picking the same result five times in a row? (I'm not saying this was the case, just an example) I wouldn't blindly rush to defend the PRNG they use when we don't know much about it, we only know the really curious results it gives us.

    Note, I'm not the kind to chase ghosts, but their PRNG is far from perfect, there's no such thing as a perfect PRNG.
    (1)
    Last edited by Alukah; 08-25-2014 at 03:44 AM.

  4. #24
    Player
    Dgsoil's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    Ul'dah
    Posts
    257
    Character
    C'desh Lios
    World
    Sargatanas
    Main Class
    Rogue Lv 90
    Quote Originally Posted by Alukah View Post
    Say you could see the actual number, say you roll a 55 out of 1000 five times in a row, but each roll was unrelated to the previous, would you really say there's nothing wrong with the PRNG picking the same result five times in a row? (I'm not saying this was the case, just an example) I wouldn't blindly rush to defend the PRNG they use when we don't know much about it, we only know the really curious results it gives us.

    Note, I'm not the kind to chase ghosts, but their PRNG is far from perfect, there's no such thing as a perfect PRNG.
    Yes, I would say there is nothing wrong, because the outcome of any given roll is not predetermined ahead of time. Each time you pick up the dice (example) you roll anew. Trying to pretend the system is on a conspiracy to screw or favor one individual over another is the epitome of ignorance. It's a computer program, it doesn't care about you or how you feel about it. But since you did say his post was complete bullshit, let me add what even he says in the post as an example:

    Additionally, even if a random number sequence is generated properly, depending on how the application uses this value, ultimately there may be cases where strange patterns arise.

    Quote Originally Posted by Alukah View Post
    It would be great if you didn't add words I never said to support your argument.
    Never once did I say you said anything in the post you quoted, I'm using my point of view of what you are saying, whereas you are using your point of view to argue against what I am saying. But I did add something you said in since you are obviously so distraught.
    (3)
    Last edited by Dgsoil; 08-25-2014 at 03:51 AM.

  5. #25
    Player Alukah's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2014
    Posts
    1,475
    Character
    Alukah Bast
    World
    Excalibur
    Main Class
    Goldsmith Lv 90
    Quote Originally Posted by Dgsoil View Post
    Yes, I would say there is nothing wrong, because the outcome of any given roll is not predetermined ahead of time. Each time you pick up the dice (example) you roll anew. Trying to pretend the system is on a conspiracy to screw or favor one individual over another is the epitome of ignorance. It's a computer program, it doesn't care about you or how you feel about it.
    It would be great if you didn't add words I never said to support your argument.

    Remember they are using PRNG algorithms that may or not be faulty (on top of PRNG not being truly random by definition), I'm just saying, don't take a blind leap without knowing what you're defending.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dgsoil View Post
    Never once did I say you said anything in the post you quoted, I'm using my point of view of what you are saying, whereas you are using your point of view to argue against what I am saying. But I did add something you said in since you are obviously so distraught.
    Trying to pretend the system is on a conspiracy to screw or favor one individual over another is the epitome of ignorance. It's a computer program, it doesn't care about you or how you feel about it

    Has nothing to do with the post, no one said or implied the PRNG is plotting against us, you just added it to make your argument look more valid.
    (1)
    Last edited by Alukah; 08-25-2014 at 03:52 AM.

  6. #26
    Player
    Dgsoil's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    Ul'dah
    Posts
    257
    Character
    C'desh Lios
    World
    Sargatanas
    Main Class
    Rogue Lv 90
    Indeed, I did imply that you act like it is plotting against you, but once again I never said that you typed those words even once. If you can't realize that a program (yes it is flawed, what made by humans in the long run isnt? Even Hiroshi_Minagawa mentioned how it can seem to follow strange patterns sometimes) has no concept of screwing you over just for fun, then this is a waste of effort because you will stay mad at it as long as you will I suppose.
    (0)

  7. #27
    Player
    Kayokane's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Location
    Limsa Lominsa
    Posts
    429
    Character
    Aluena Mahri
    World
    Hyperion
    Main Class
    White Mage Lv 100
    Quote Originally Posted by Fawkes View Post
    If it is an actual 41% chance, then you expect the results to be 41 out of 100. That's literally what a percent is, a ratio out of 100. Saying 41% is the exact same thing as saying 41/100.
    don't forget multiples of 10. 410 / 1,000 is 41%. but that is still 590 / 1,000 chances to fail
    (1)
    ~Mew

    ~~Thank You Niqo'te

  8. #28
    Player

    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Location
    Limsa Lominsa
    Posts
    163
    Well when crafting and sitting at 99% chance of HQ.... and still getting a NQ item in the end. Yeah.
    (1)

  9. #29
    Player
    Nicobo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    1,602
    Character
    Nico Nico
    World
    Goblin
    Main Class
    Alchemist Lv 70
    Quote Originally Posted by Canopia View Post
    Well when crafting and sitting at 99% chance of HQ.... and still getting a NQ item in the end. Yeah.
    yeah... I was BETTER than you, i got NQ when 98% chance of HQ... ^^;
    (0)

  10. #30
    Player Adler's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2014
    Location
    Gridania
    Posts
    241
    Character
    Adler Lett
    World
    Odin
    Main Class
    Lancer Lv 50
    Quote Originally Posted by Fawkes View Post
    If it is an actual 41% chance, then you expect the results to be 41 out of 100. That's literally what a percent is, a ratio out of 100. Saying 41% is the exact same thing as saying 41/100.
    You should have tried to learn at school
    (3)

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