Quote Originally Posted by giantslayer View Post
Last night I literally failed 34 attempts in a row to meld a level 3 materia to the fourth slot of my secondary tool, at an 11% success rate.
I then tried my luck on another meld at 35%, failed 6 in a row, and decided it was a bad night to do melds.

If I remember my statistics right, the mathematical probability of an event with an 89% chance happening 34 times in a row is 1.9%.
Probability of 65% failure triggering 6 times in a row is 7.5%.
Probability of both happening consecutively is 0.14%.

Yeah, really bad luck. For the record, up until that point, I've had what felt like a relatively fair distribution of successes and failures, but over a million gil worth of materia went down the toilet last night. The worst part is I didn't do that many failures before getting a success. I walked away from those melds with nothing to show for it.
Something I learn from other person the other day:

"Statistic means nothing for individual"

Even if you have like 80% chance, it could take away dozens of tries. That's how bad RNG is. lol