Proposed new Atma system

[Draken]

you have 50% chance to have at least one atma after 35 FATEs

you have 90% chance after 114 FATEs.

Id like to point out a fact for you.

Percentage doesn't increase the more you take part.

Completing 10 events with 2% chance doesn't mean you upped your chances to 20%

Your chances after 50 fates is still 2%, not 100%, you just had 50 2% chances!

[Mysteran]

Id like to point out a fact for you.

Percentage doesn't increase the more you take part.

Completing 10 events with 2% chance doesn't mean you upped your chances to 20%

Your chances after 50 fates is still 2%, not 100%, you just had 50 2% chances!

I think he's trying to say probability or likelihood, not chance exactly.

But even so, I guess I'm on the side of poor drop rates. hehe

[Kuwagami]

Id like to point out a fact for you.

Percentage doesn't increase the more you take part.

Completing 10 events with 2% chance doesn't mean you upped your chances to 20%

Your chances after 50 fates is still 2%, not 100%, you just had 50 2% chances!

You clearly do not understand how stats work. Let me explain :

With 2% chance per event (FATE), you have 98% chance NOT to have it.

Now, of course the chance to get it doesn't add. HOWEVER, the chance NOT to have it does add. The chance not to have an atma after 2 FATES becomes 98%*98%, so 96.04%. You have 4% chance to have at least one atma after 2 FATEs

After 10 FATEs, the chance not to have one is (98/100)^10, so 81.71%. You know have a bit more than 18% chance to have gotten your atma. And so on.


So you need 35 FATES at 2% to have 50% chance to have at least an atma.

At 1%, you'd need 69 FATEs to have that 50% chance.


For your numbers, 50 fates at 2% equals to a 63.58% chance to have an atma, but you could have 2 (1.25% due to the guarantee to have one), 3 (0.03%), or even 50 (1.13*10^(-83)%, but it can still happen )