Turn 6 Loot Bug!

[MurakumoMillennium]

Unless there are many other groups experiencing the same problem, 3 points of data isn't enough to claim it's bugged. I've seen the exact same loot from T4 three times in a row and I know it's not bugged.

There actually are, and a lot of it has been reported in the coil thread on BG. Multiple groups, all getting identical loot every week, myself included. Far too many to be random chance anyways.

For you guys linking to how RNG and such works, go ahead and tell us just how astronomically low the chance is to get identical drops 3 weeks in a row for even ONE group, let alone multiple.

[Crater]

For you guys linking to how RNG and such works, go ahead and tell us just how astronomically low the chance is to get identical drops 3 weeks in a row for even ONE group, let alone multiple.

There are sixteen possible drops in Turn 6, and two chests. Assuming that the chests have mutually exclusive drop tables (ie: There are eight possible items per chest), there is a 1-in-8 chance, per chest, per week, of dropping any particular item.

To get 'identical drops 3 weeks in a row', the first week doesn't matter - you got Healing Gloves and a Monk Belt, but it could have just as easily been a Bard Belt and Tank Boots. We only really start counting at the second week, where you have a 1-in-8 chance of getting the Healing Gloves (or Bard Belt, in the hypothetical) from one chest, and a 1-in-8 chance of getting the Monk Belt (Tank Boots), for an overall 1-in-64 chance. That's just repeated the following week, for another 1-in-64 chance.

Multiplied together, that's a 1-in-4096 chance of getting the same items three weeks in a row. Unusual, yes, unfortunate, yes, but not really what I would call "astronomically" low.


I mean I feel you, it really sucks when that happens. When I got my first Turn 5 clear, it dropped the SMN book, and DRG boots. For the next four damn clears (that's five in a row), there they were: SMN book, DRG boots. At nine items in each of Turn 5's chests, there is a 1-in-43046721 chance of that ever occurring (of note: This is the exact same chance of any specific set of drops over four clears of Turn 5, and is only notable because they happen to be the same). Yet as ridiculous as it was, I'm pretty confident in saying that the RNG in Turn 5's loot generation is not broken. Weird things just happen sometimes.